13 Auto Brands That Might Survive to 2030 or Are Dead Brands Walking
Which of 13 Car Companies Are Dead Brands WalkingHearst Owned
How can all these car brands—“legacy,” EV startup, foreign, and domestic—compete in a quickly changing transportation ecosystem? They can’t. Something’s got to give.
We analyze these brands by grouping them under these headings: Do Not Resuscitate, Whistling Past the Junkyard, and Waiting for a Cure.
You might argue that some of these brands are healthier than others. But none of them are first, second or third among rivals. That’s when people at the C-suite level have difficult decisions to make.
The US auto market lost these brands in the last quarter-century: Plymouth, Oldsmobile, Isuzu, Mercury, Saturn, Pontiac, Hummer, Saab, and Suzuki.
In roughly the same time period, Fiat and Alfa Romeo returned to the US. Lotus left and came back. Maybach and Smart came and went.
Tesla became a volume car company and spawned such competitors as Rivian, Karma, Lucid, Polestar, and maybe a couple of EV startups we have forgotten.
Depending on how you score the EV brands, we are net-minus maybe one or two automotive marques. Meanwhile, dozens—perhaps hundreds—of Chinese brands have saturated their home market and now are heading to Europe with cheaply priced EVs, threatening the futures of indigenous brands.
BYD and Geely might be here by now if not for the Biden administration’s 102.5% tariff on Chinese EVs, which increased already stiff Trump administration Chinese tariffs and which likely will be increased again if there’s a second Trump administration.
How can all these car brands—“legacy,” EV startup, foreign, and domestic—compete in a quickly changing transportation ecosystem? They can’t. Something’s got to give.
And there are brands with brighter outlooks than others.
Sure, Mazda sells more than 300,000 vehicles a year in the US, but how long can it stand alone, surrounded by much, much larger players, without a solid plan for electrification? Can the ID. Buzz battery-electric minivan be the hit product that Volkswagen needs to stay relevant in the US market? Can General Motors keep both Buick and Cadillac when neither one is widely considered by luxury or mainstream shoppers?
Story continues
Here’s our prognosis for auto brands doing business in the United States that have less-than-certain futures.
DO NOT RESUSCITATEChrysler
Stellantis
When PSA Peugeot Citroën purchased Fiat Chrysler to create Stellantis three years ago, CEO Carlos Tavares gave each its 14 brands’ CEOs a decade “to be clear in brand promise, customers, targets, and brand communications.” Three years and one pandemic later, Tavares told reporters after disappointing first-half 2024 earnings results, “If they don’t make money, we’ll shut them down.”
Chrysler is down to one model for 2025, the Pacifica/Voyager minivan, and is expected to add a midsize EV crossover based on the Airflow concept—named for an innovative model that ran just four model years during the Great Depression—for 2026 and an EV sedan for ’27. Both would be on Stellantis’ Large platform.
Prognosis: Chrysler is that much easier to kill now that its name isn’t on the side of the headquarters building.
Fiat
Stellantis
The storied automaker long has been a “regional” European brand selling mostly in Italy and in parts of Central Europe where it has assembly plants. It’s hard to see which models in its current lineup could not be rebadged a Peugeot or Citroën, though the subcompact 500e could save Fiat as a niche EV.
Prognosis: If Stellantis wants to compete in the small commuter EV market in the US, Fiat would be the only brand appropriate for the 500e. On the other hand, Fiat doesn’t have its name on the side of its HQ, either.
Infiniti
Nissan’s premium brand enjoyed a 38.8% sales increase in 2023, compared with +23.2% for Nissan USA (both brands). Even then, Infiniti sales totaled just 64,609, one-fifth of Lexus’ US sales last year.
Meanwhile, Acura, which like Infiniti had been flailing to maintain a premium image since a few years after launch, sold about two-and-a-quarter times as many cars and SUVs in 2023. So far this year, Infiniti has sold a paltry 32,500 vehicles in the US—well behind Porsche, transacting at much higher prices.
Prognosis: Nissan division already has the Z and GT-R in its showrooms, and two or three additional upscale models could cover volume model Infiniti segments.
Jaguar
Jaguar
By the mid-2010s, Jaguar under new ownership by India’s Tata had a growing lineup of handsome, powerful sedans and sports cars. US sales peaked at 40,000 in 2017, but Jaguar could never break the German luxury brands’ dominance and instead was left to compete with fellow re-emerging premium brands Cadillac and Alfa Romeo.
Sales fell below 10,000 annually in 2022, and in ’23, Jag sold just 8,348 vehicles. Compare this with Jaguar’s showroom mate, Land Rover, which sold 66,039 SUVs last year.
Prognosis: Jaguar sales might hit five digits again in 2024, as 6,800 were sold through July. But it will take more success than that for the J in JLR to get the corporate attention and resources committed to the brand that’s selling nearly eight times as many vehicles in the US.
Polestar
Polestars 3 through 7 are scheduled to launch in the next four model years, but we’re still struggling to understand why these aren’t simply Volvo electrics. At least the Volvo brand can pivot to PHEVs until the EV market picks up again.
The bean counters must be panicking: Polestar has sold fewer than 2,600 battery-electric vehicles so far this year in the US, trailing high-priced Lucid by about a thousand units.
Prognosis: Geely needs to redirect all of Polestar’s EV resources to Volvo.
WHISTLING PAST THE JUNKYARDBuick
Buick
It’s obvious to everyone but foreign automakers building cars in China that it’s over for foreign automakers building cars in China. Local automakers have learned from 25-30 years of assembly for brands like Buick how to design, engineer, and build their own marques.
Buick has had some US success in the past couple of years. It outsells Cadillac, and the Envista four-door crossover “coupe” is off to a good start, with 28,700 sold through July, though it may be hurting sales of the Buick Envision midsize crossover, which is down 17% for the same period.
The brand is set to get three new EVs in the next four years: a premium midsize crossover in the 2025 model year, a sporty midsize crossover for ’26, and a compact crossover in model year ’28. While the Encore GX and Envision are scheduled for minor updates for 2027 and the Enclave flagship is due for a ’28 model year facelift, those new EV models are supposed to trigger a wholesale shift from ICE to electric power by the ’30s.
Prognosis: Buick’s EV future will be blunted if General Motors fails to get its Ultium EV production up to capacity quickly, because high-volume Chevrolets and high-profit Cadillacs will get priority in its assembly plants.
Dodge
Of course Autoweek readers want to see a high-performance PHEV, and later an EV Charger. But Dodge would be as easy to cut as Chrysler, especially after the lucrative Ram trucks were taken from Dodge as a standalone brand in 2009.
The compact Dodge Hornet is selling poorly but it’s scheduled to carry on, and there is a new Durango, including an EV version, for the ’26 model year. Still, the Durango is dead last in sales among midsize SUVs. The Hornet could be rebadged a Jeep and the Durango already is—the Grand Cherokee.
Prognosis: If Tavares cuts just one US brand, Chrysler will go first.
Lincoln
Lincoln
Ford’s premium brand made its big push into China a decade ago. It was much too late to match Buick’s success, but Ford remains all-in on partnering with Chinese battery company Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd (CATL), and that could extend Lincoln’s life into the ’30s.
Lincoln sales (of nothing but SUVs and crossovers) were up in the first seven months this year to 56,400 units, lagging well behind Cadillac, which at least is still selling sport sedans.
Prognosis: Lincoln needs an EV in its lineup soon to raise hopes it will survive another 10 years.
Maserati
Maserati
Rumors that Stellantis would sell or fold Maserati re-surfaced after Tavares’ reversal on shuttering brands, but the company has since pushed back on such speculation.
“Maserati’s mission is to write the future of mobility through the best performance in the luxury segment, focusing on the desires of its customers,” a July 31 Stellantis Group statement reads. “To achieve its goals, the brand precisely targets a highly specific audience.”
Prognosis: Does Maserati have a more promising future than Alfa Romeo, its Stellantis sibling? Great exclusivity translates into very low sales numbers: 3,165 units through July in the US, down 27% from a year ago.
Mitsubishi
dkphoto
After a couple of decades flailing in the US market, Mitsubishi was brought into the Renault-Nissan alliance to concentrate on affordable, well-equipped compact and midsize SUVs. US sales topped 100,000 in 2017, and reached 121,049 in 2019, before the global pandemic took its toll.
The brand has just launched a new North American business plan, Mitsubishi Momentum 2030, and 2024 sales through July are up 9% to 57,830, so it looks pretty good for another 100k-plus year.
Nearly one-fifth of that could come from a discontinued sub-$20,000 model—Mitsu sold 9,862 Mirage hatchbacks and G4s in the first half of the year. In the second quarter, Mirage hatchback sales were way up and G4 sales rose 70.3%, so don’t expect many leftovers at your local dealership.
Prognosis: Value-priced PHEV and EV Mitsu SUVs could be used to push alliance partner Nissan a bit upmarket to fill some entry-premium holes left if Infiniti is cut.
WAITING FOR A CURE
Alfa Romeo
Stellantis
When he was CEO of Fiat Chrysler, the late Sergio Marchionne said he didn’t expect to grab all of BMW’s premium-sport business; he just wanted Alfa’s share.
Alfa sold 10,897 Giulias, Stelvios, and Tonales (plus one leftover 4c) in the US in 2023, while Chevrolet sold more than three times as many C8 Corvettes. Alfa continues to be a sort of cult favorite in certain regions of Europe, but we have no doubt Tavares is taking a hard look at the storied brand.
So far this year, Alfa has sold a disappointing 5,440 vehicles, despite pushing the all-new (and entry-level affordable) Tonale crossover.
Prognosis: If the brand can live on in Europe, Alfa may be a better landing point than Chrysler or Dodge for an STLA Large-platform crossover and sedan for the US.
Mazda
Happily independent of Ford since 2010, Mazda has struggled as one of Japan’s small, independent brands with a varied vehicle lineup. But sales were up 23.2%, to 363,354 in 2023 as the brand slowly edges its way upmarket to better profit margins.
Prognosis: Mazda might just make it through the coming transition toward EVs. But so far there is no NE MX-5 Miata in sight: The ND was made possible only by the partnership that produced the Fiat Spyder, and that’s not going to happen again. Maybe a platform shared with Toyota 86/Subaru BRZ next time?
Volkswagen
Volkswagen
Before you write your letters to the editor, keep in mind that VW nearly pulled out of the US market once before, in the early ’90s when annual sales fell below 30,000 units. That was down from peak US sales of 569,696 in 1970, a number VW of America has yet to match.
Last year, VW sold 329,029 cars and crossovers in the US—34,325 fewer than Mazda.
Prognosis: VW of America has muddled positioning and marketing over the last half-century. The success or failure of its EV strategy here will determine its future.
Are there other brands you consider to be at risk now or likely to struggle in the future? Please comment below.
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