Biden Shepherded Europe on Ukraine and NATO. What Happens Now?
European leaders have been relying on President Biden to guide them through some of the continent’s darkest days in decades.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, they found in him a shepherd of sorts, who worked with them to unite behind Kyiv and shaped the response to Russia’s aggression.
Mr. Biden urged his European counterparts to impose sanctions on Russia quickly, and his administration lent expertise on how to do so in lock step with the United States.
He pushed European allies to get it together when it came to defense and to commit to spend more on NATO.
And he encouraged them to subscribe to his narrative of being part of a fearless, principled band of countries standing up for democracy against ever-growing threats.
For those European leaders who consider Russia to be an aggressor that aims to swallow Ukraine and poses a real challenge to their continent’s security — and that is most of them — Mr. Biden was the person to listen to and emulate.
In the wake of Mr. Biden’s announcement that he would not seek re-election this year, European leaders may be feeling some relief: A different Democratic ticket could perhaps improve the chances of defeating the Republican ticket of former President Donald J. Trump and JD Vance, and avert a total reshaping of Europe’s security posture and the U.S. role in it.
But they are also aware that Mr. Biden was one of the last of his kind, an American politician who had been a fixture of what in foreign policy circles is called Atlanticism or trans-Atlanticism: the belief that the two sides of the Atlantic Ocean, the United States and Europe, belong together in a deep and broad alliance.
“There is a strong understanding in Europe that Biden was the last traditional trans-Atlanticist, a brand of U.S. politician that has become much more rare,” said Camille Grand, a former assistant secretary general of NATO who now leads the European Council on Foreign Relations’ defense initiative.
“The notion of generational change in the United States is something the Europeans can put their head around and most have, but they don’t know what the future looks like,” he added.
Mr. Trump and Mr. Vance have said that they want to reconsider the relationship between the United States and NATO, and America’s contributions to the alliance: Under them, the era of U.S.-sponsored European security might well draw to a close.
And Mr. Trump has said he wants to see a swift end to the war in Ukraine, something that would be likely to involve losing territory to an empowered and emboldened Russia.
This would leave Europe facing a difficult dilemma. It could fall in line with a Trump deal and go back on its promises to support Ukraine in its fight with Russia. Or it could carry on without the United States, picking up the tab to support Ukraine alone. It is far from clear that the Europeans have the will and the resources to do so.
Ukrainians are watching anxiously. Even over the last year, as the U.S. presidential election has approached, American policy on Ukraine has shifted slightly, Mr. Grand noted. So in some ways, the ground has already been prepared for a potential change in the U.S. commitment.
“President Biden was very cautious on Ukraine NATO membership, which created frustration with the biggest friends of Ukraine in Europe,” Mr. Grand said. “On the delivery of certain defense systems it took a lot of push and sometimes Europeans even taking the lead,” he added.
There is broad acceptance that a future Democratic presidential nominee could trim the level of support that Mr. Biden has offered to Ukraine until now. But there is no doubt that Mr. Biden’s withdrawal has injected further uncertainty into an election that may play a significant role in determining Ukraine’s future.
Oleksandr Kraiev, head of the North America program at Ukrainian Prism, a Kyiv-based research group, said the twists and turns in the U.S. presidential campaign suggested that the country had entered a “prolonged period of political struggle” that could oblige any future president, even a Democrat, to focus on domestic issues and sideline foreign policy, including Ukraine.
“The U.S. will be dealing with its own problems,” Mr. Kraiev said.
But among Europeans wary of a second term for Mr. Trump, Mr. Biden’s decision to step aside and to endorse Ms. Harris was also greeted with some relief.
“At a time of great concern in most European circles about the prospect of another Trump presidency, the news of President Biden’s withdrawal is sure to be greeted positively, in part, because it holds the potential to revive the prospects for a Democratic win, but also because Kamala Harris’s foreign policy team is notably Atlanticist,” said Ian Lesser, a former American official who heads the Brussels office of the German Marshall Fund.
“With some exceptions, leaderships are looking for predictability from Washington on trade and defense,” he said. “Brussels will look for continuity in the wake of this decision.”
Constant Méheut contributed reporting from Kyiv, Ukraine.
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