How markets typically perform in the 100 days before an election
Even with election uncertainty, the market typically moves higher in the 100 days leading up to a presidential vote — but it may be a volatile ride to get there. Bank of America technical strategist Paul Ciana looked at market performance during the last 24 presidential elections, finding the S & P 500 typically moves higher 75% of the time during the 100-day period before the vote. The average return was 4.4%. But the CBOE Volatility Index , despite typically slipping in August, usually moves higher leading up to the election, signaling a rocky period for markets. The so-called fear gauge usually declines in the first 20 trading days of the 100-day run-up to the election, but typically works higher in the 45, 60, 65 and 70 days before Election Day. The VIX has been higher in six of the last eight election years during the closely watched, 100-day period. It jumps about 35% on average. The dollar, as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) , mostly trends higher. Historically, it has peaked 10 days prior to voting day with an average 2.8% gain, and for the entire 100-day span the pickup is usually about 2.5%. Oil prices usually see upward pressure through October, before feeling some weakness in the final weeks before voters cast ballots. In the run-up to October, oil prices typically see more of a boost when a Democrat is the sitting president. The U.S. 10-year yield is usually range-bound, but is more likely to be higher with a Democrat in office during election season. Gold prices also typically stall, but see a notably big advance in September with an incumbent Democrat. Copper, meanwhile, usually trades sideways before sliding, but is more likely to avoid a decline with a Democrat in office. In non-U.S. markets, German government bund yields tend to decline, but have typically been flat with a sitting Democrat in office.
#markets #typically #perform #days #election