Old Farmer’s Almanac says to keep your flip-flops out for fall. Unless you live in Indiana
As autumn begins, temperatures during the remaining months of the year could give new meaning to the phrase “sweater weather.”
The Old Farmer’s Almanac, not to be confused with the Farmer’s Almanac, is predicting a warmer-than-average fall for large swaths of the U.S., particularly in the western half of the country. Meanwhile upper Midwest states like Minnesota and Wisconsin, the almanac writes, will likely see normal temperatures in line for the year.
Unless you live in Indiana, of course.
Old Farmer’s Almanac: Fall 2024 forecast for Indiana
Hoosiers and Ohio Valley residents can expect below average temperatures this fall, according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac in their annual seasonal forecast. That includes states stretching along the Atlantic coast from Florida to Rhode Island.
Almanac
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So what does an average fall look like in Indiana, and is the Old Farmer’s Almanac right?
What’s the average fall temperature in Indiana?
Last year, average high temperatures during September, October and November in Indianapolis were 80, 67 and 56, respectively, according to fall weather data provided by the National Weather Service.
That’s a little bit higher than Circle City’s roughly 30-year fall average.
From 1991 to 2020, NWS reported monthly climate temperatures for September, October and November had reached an average of 78, 66 and 52, respectively. That includes an average of 3.27 inches of rain.
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Old Farmer’s Almanac: Winter 2024-25 forecast for Indiana
Following autumn, Indiana also might be in for a cold winter. At least colder, writes the Old Farmer’s Almanac, than a good-sized chunk of the country.
“This winter, temperatures will be up and snowfall down throughout most of the United States,” the almanac’s editor-in-chief Carol Connare said online, predicting a “temperate, uneventful winter” overall. Nevertheless, the almanac asserts heavy snowstorms will hit central and southern Appalachia, the Rockies and portions of the western Ohio Valley.
Indiana, writes the almanac, will have snowy, cold conditions in the southern half of the state while northern Indiana gets cold drier weather.
How do both almanac forecasts compare?
Both almanacs — the Farmer’s and Old Farmer’s — appear to agree with each other about Indiana’s autumn and winter weather: things are looking on the cool and crispy side.
“Fall will be frosty and wet in the Great Lakes, Midwest region while the temperatures in the North Central region may be downright frigid, with lots of fall flakes and rain,” writes the Farmer’s Almanac, adding the Midwest will see a “Big Freeze” in winter.
Whether either almanac gets it right this year remains to be seen.
How accurate are the Farmer’s Almanac and Old Farmer’s Almanac?
Despite assertions the almanacs are 80-85% accurate, studies have shown their long-range predictions are sometimes little better than a coin flip. One study cited by Popular Mechanics reported the Farmer’s Almanac was right about 52% of the time.
What NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says about fall 2024
Meteorologists with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center have offered a peek into what lies in store for Hoosiers this fall and winter. As it turns out, don’t pack up your shorts and flip-flops just yet.
A seasonal temperature outlook map issued Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows Indiana is leaning toward a toasty fall. Warmer than normal temperatures are favored across a majority of the country, according to NWS, partly due to the lowered seawater temperatures of La Niña. The map is valid from October to December 2024.
La Niña explained: What is La Niña? Does it bring more snow? How climate pattern could affect US weather.
A map by the Climate Prediction Center shows HNOAA’s seasonal temperature outlook in the United States for fall 2024.
What about winter? Here’s what NOAA says…
Most of Indiana has equal chances for below and above average temperatures this winter from December 2024 through February 2025, according to a seasonal temperature outlook map issued Thursday by NOAA.
Forecasters say this year’s winter could also be a wet one.
The latest seasonal precipitation outlook predicts Central Indiana will likely see above average precipitation (50-60% probability) from December through February, according to NOAA.
A map issued Sept. 19, 2024 by the Climate Prediction Center shows NOAA’s seasonal temperature outlook in the United States for Winter 2024-2025.
Other weather predictions: Farmer’s Almanac gives Midwest its fall, winter 2024-25 forecast, but here’s what NOAA says
John Tufts covers trending news for IndyStar and Midwest Connect. Send him a news tip at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter at JTuftsReports.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Old Farmer’s Almanac gives Indiana’s 2024-25 fall, winter forecast
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