Reshoring bets likely to succeed no matter who is elected president

Former President Donald Trump ‘s latest tariff threats have put the spotlight back on the reshoring trend , or the return of companies’ overseas operations to the United States. On Tuesday, Trump vowed to slap 100% tariffs on “every single car coming across the Mexican border” if he wins the election against Vice President Kamala Harris . His comments followed his threat on Monday to impose a 200% tariff on John Deere if the agricultural equipment maker moved production to Mexico. During the campaign, he has also said he will impose new tariffs on China . “The re-election of former president Trump could present a greater risk of higher tariffs than if Harris is elected, in our view, though admittedly it can be challenging for investors to predict what policies Trump ultimately may impose,” Barclays analyst Dan Levy wrote in a note on Tuesday. Trade will work regardless Yet, reshoring is the one macroeconomic trade that will work no matter who wins the White House, according to Societe Generale. The trend has grown in the United States in recent years due to government incentives, like the Chips and Science Act signed into law in 2022, and concerns about supply chain security . Also contributing to the phenomenon are Trump’s 2018 tariffs on China, according to Manish Kabra, Societe Generale’s head of U.S. equity strategy. Since that time, the share of China imports has “dropped dramatically,” he said in a note published on Thursday. Last year, there were 287,000 reshoring and foreign direct investment job announcements, the second-highest year on record, according to the Reshoring Initiative . Kabra analyzed the proposed policies of both Trump and Harris and found reshoring was one area where the two campaigns overlapped. “One trade that has worked under both of the last two administrations is our US Reshoring ‘beneficiary’ equities,” Kabra wrote. “This trade should continue to perform at least until the share of China imports comes down substantially, we believe.” Here are some of the names that made his list of beneficiaries from reshoring. Quanta Services , Packaging Corporation of America and Cummins have all rallied more than 30% so far this year. Quanta Services delivers infrastructure solutions for industries such as utility and renewable energy. Packaging Corporation of America produces containerboard products and Cummins manufactures engines and power-generation products. Rockwell Automation , on the other hand, has lost about 16% year to date. The company provides industrial automation products and services. At a recent Morgan Stanley conference, CEO Blake Moret was asked when he thinks the reshoring trend in manufacturing will translate into demand for the automation equipment to be placed inside those facilities. “We continue to track a lot of projects that give us continued confidence that we are still in the fairly early innings of investment in the U.S.,” he said. Meanwhile, shares of Honeywell are down about 2% so far this year. The industrial conglomerate has a hand in a range of industries, including industrial automation solutions and building automation. Societe Generale is not the only investment bank bullish on the reshoring theme. Bank of America is as well, noting that construction spending on U.S. manufacturing has surged in recent years and soared 50% in 2023 from the year before. Industrial manufacturers Eaton and Steel Dynamics are already seeing benefits from reshoring, Bank of America equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall wrote in a note last week. Smaller beneficiaries Other companies are also likely to see tailwinds over the next few years, many of them small- and mid-cap stocks, she said. “Domestic SMID caps are poised to benefit: their sales growth has been highly correlated with ‘picks & shovels’ capex, more so than large caps’, and they also trade at [a] historical discount to large caps,” Hall wrote. Here are some of the stocks that Bank of America thinks will gain. United Rentals offers the most versatile rental equipment fleet and solutions to maintain data center project schedules and operations, the bank said. “URI’s $21bn of fleet is a competitive advantage given its size, breadth, and diversity of equipment (aerials, boom lifts, earthmoving, portable storage, trench safety, mobile power, fluid equipment),” Bank of America analyst Michael Feinger wrote in the note. Shares are up 40% so far this year. Meanwhile, Commercial Metals , the top producer of steel rebar in the U.S., is the prime beneficiary of federal programs aimed at rebuilding, reshoring and repowering, Feinger said. During the company’s fiscal third-quarter conference call in June, CEO Peter Matt said there has been solid year-over-year growth in demand for data centers and institutional buildings. “Construction activity and rebar consumption at manufacturing projects remain well above historic levels,” he said. “That said, shipments have leveled off recently as we wait for the next round of construction to commence at several semiconductor plants. We believe this trend is transitory given the recent CHIPS Act funding allocations and public commitments by sponsors to expand facilities.” The stock has gained about 9% year to date. Lastly, EastGroup Properties will benefit from strong demand for warehouse space and its regional orientation, the bank said. The real estate investment trust develops and operates industrial properties in Sunbelt markets. Bank of America believes it is the traditional manufacturing markets in the Sunbelt and Midwest that will gain the most from increased domestic manufacturing. The REIT is ahead 4% so far in 2024, excluding its 2.94% dividend yield.