Experts a step closer to developing simple test that could estimate risk of dying
It’s the only thing in life that’s guaranteed — and yet knowing exactly when you’re going to die still remains a mystery.
But experts could now be closer to a “date of death” test after discovering a simple cheek swab can accurately estimate the risk of dying to within a year.
The process, which analyses DNA changes, could also be used to indicate if a person is at an increased likelihood of death, helping doctors prescribe medication or lifestyle changes.
A team from Tally Health — a biotechnology company based in New York — have developed the “epigenetic clock” CheekAge, which calculates biological age from easy-to-collect cells in the cheek.
The figure is based on how healthy cells are relative to a person’s true age.
Biological age can be affected by genetics, stress, sleep, nutrition and smoking and can be higher or lower than a person’s actual age.
The scientists tested their method to see how well it predicted mortality risk and found that changes to DNA were significantly linked.
They used a bank of data on 1513 men and women born in 1921 and 1936 who were tracked throughout their lives before they died.
The participants with the highest CheekAge group were 148 per cent more likely to die that year than those in the lowest group.
Future tests could involve living participants to see whether the method can accurately predict when they will die.
Writing in the journal Frontiers in Aging, the team said: “This implies that a simple, non-invasive cheek swab can be a valuable alternative for studying and tracking the biology of aging.”
However, Adele Murrell, professor of epigenetics at the University of Bath, said she sees no evidence that the CheekAge clock will be able to forecast when someone will die.
Instead, the method should be used to help unhealthy people turn the tide on their early demise as changes to DNA are, in theory, reversible, she added.
“It’s not yet clear whether patients will be more likely to change their lifestyle choices when confronted with the epigenetic clock data than when their GP warns them to do so,” Professor Murrell said.
Dusko Ilic, professor of stem cell sciences at King’s College London, added: “Emphasising mortality … may potentially cause unnecessary anxiety and foster a fatalistic mindset.”
#Experts #step #closer #developing #simple #test #estimate #risk #dying