Where the charts indicate gold is headed next as it rallies on escalating geopolitical tensions
Gold is making new all-time highs fueled by two factors: escalating tensions in the Middle East , as well as central banks around the world moving to a more dovish, or accommodative stance. I believe there is more upside in gold that we can take advantage of in the underlying bullion market or one of the leading gold miners like Harmony Gold (HMY) . Before we get started, it’s important to point out that I believe that broader equity markets remain in a secular bull market with global central banks’ easing monetary policy amid a backdrop of a boom in artificial intelligence that carries equity markets significantly higher in coming quarters. But seasonality, escalating Middle Eastern tensions, the next FOMC meeting not until November, and two weeks from the start of Q3 earnings season puts us in a bit of a holding period where I think the focus will be in the middle east. Gold futures broke through $1850 and $2100 resistance levels that now act as support before we test a technical resistance/target level derived from a parallel channel at around $3000/oz. From a macro point of view gold was unable to rally during 2020-2022, frustrating many gold bulls that expected to see a rally during this volatile period. Equity markets were selling off as inflation was rallying. But the key in my opinion was that real interest rates were going higher. The way I’m defining ‘real interest rates’ is the prevailing nominal yield on a bond, the 10-year Treasury in this example, adjusted by the expected 10-year inflation level. Expected inflation was dropping as the prevailing10-year yield was rallying. Put simply, real interest rates are how much you actually earn on a fixed income investment after adjusting for inflation. If that number is going higher, there is little reason to hold a yield-less metal. Once real 10-year interest rates started to move lower as markets priced in a Fed rate cut, the real yield was declining creating an environment that’s conducive to a rally in gold. Stock plays Harmony Gold is a South-African based gold miner that pays a 1.2% dividend. Looking all the way back to the late 1990s on the monthly chart the stock is attempting a breakout through downtrend resistance at current levels of $11.25. I currently hold a 1% allocation of HMY in the dividend portfolio at Inside Edge Capital. Moving to the daily chart with the consolidation highlighted around the pending monthly breakout level, I plan to increase my holding to 2% on a breakout on above average volume. Currently the 50-day average volume is 4.3 million shares, so let’s put a target of $11.50 on 5 million shares as the trigger to add. In conclusion, gold is rallying from concerns in the Middle East, but I think more importantly and more sustainable, is the move to an accommodative fiscal policy stance from central banks around the globe that will help to propel equity markets highs. The result will likely be lower U.S. yields and a lower U.S. dollar, which believe it or not, these are the same conditions that would produce a rally in US equities. So my outlook is that gold will continue to rally alongside equity markets. Should geopolitical tensions escalate into a full blown crisis however, then gold should continue to rally, but my thesis on the stock market rally will be vulnerable. -Todd Gordon, Founder of Inside Edge Capital , LLC DISCLOSURES: (Gordon owns HMY in his wealth management company Inside Edge Capital. Charts shown are MotiveWave and Optuma.) All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.
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