Israel is weighing up how to strike back against Iran. Here’s how it could play out.
Israel is considering retaliation after Iran’s missile attack on Tuesday.
Experts suggest Israel’s counterattack could hit Iran economically, with it targeting oil facilities.
Others say Israel could hit key figures in Iran instead of its energy infrastructure.
Israel is considering its next move after Iran attacked it with nearly 200 missiles on Tuesday.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu swiftly promised retaliation, saying Iran “will pay” for its “mistake.”
The world is now waiting to see what happens next. Global stocks dipped again on Thursday, while oil prices rose further as markets braced for a wider regional war in the Middle East.
Experts told Business Insider that a strike could take place in the next few days, though the method, timing, and extent of retaliation remain unclear.
Many fear that an emboldened Israel would strike back harder than it has previously. “The conflict in the region is really going according to Netanyahu’s playbook,” Shahram Akbarzadeh, a professor in Middle East and Central Asian Politics at Deakin University, Australia, wrote in The Conversation.
“He has been advocating for hitting Iran and for the United States to target Iran. Now, Israel has the justification to retaliate against Iran and also drag the United States into the conflict.”
There are several potential targets Netanyahu may be considering:
Iran’s oil facilities
One target could be Iran’s oil production facilities.
Iran is a big player in the global market for crude oil. According to Reuters, Iran produces 3.2 million barrels of oil per day, or roughly 3% of global output.
Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina said he would “urge the Biden administration to coordinate an overwhelming response with Israel, starting with Iran’s ability to refine oil.”
Iran’s oil refineries should be “hit and hit hard,” he added.
An unnamed person briefed on the situation told the Financial Times reported that this option was “gaining momentum.”
Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran will ‘pay’ for its attack on Israel. Reuters
That could have major implications for the rest of the world.
Oil prices spiked for a third day on Thursday, fueled by speculation that the growing conflict could limit production. Brent crude futures were up $1.41, or 1.91%, at $75.31 a barrel on Thursday morning. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $1.45, or 2.07%, to $71.55, according to Reuters.
With oil prices rising, there are fears that the industrial recession the US economy is experiencing could snowball into a full-fledged downturn.
“Oil prices spiking, energy prices spiking in the past, have been enough to tip the economy from a slowing into a recession,” Piper Sandler economist Jake Oubina, said in an interview with Fox Business on Tuesday.
“So I think that’s what we have to worry about.”
Assassination attempts
Some Israeli officials who spoke to Axios said targeted assassinations could also be an option.
Beni Sabti, a researcher in the Iran program at the Institute of National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, told the FT that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is unlikely to be a target.
However, he added that members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard or advisors to the leader could be the subject of an assassination attempt.
“If they are not there, part of the leader is not there,” he said.
Israel’s offensive against Iran-backed Hezbollah — including the assassination of its leader and the deadly pager explosions — shows the powerful extent of its capabilities.
Chris Doyle, director of the Council for Arab British Understanding NGO, previously told BI that Israel is likely to believe that an attack on Iran would be “relatively pain-free” and predicted it to occur within days.
Nuclear sites
Former Israeli leader Naftali Bennett suggested that Israel should carry out a large-scale attack on Iran’s nuclear program.
“Israel has now its greatest opportunity in 50 years, to change the face of the Middle East,” Bennett wrote in an X post.
“We must act now to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, its central energy facilities, and to fatally cripple this terrorist regime,” he added.
Meanwhile, Lt Gen Herzi Halevi, the Israeli chief of staff, said the country has “capabilities to reach and strike any point in the Middle East,” according to The Guardian.
The Biden administration would not support a nuclear strike over fears that it would be a catalyst for further conflict that would draw in US troops, according to the same outlet.
Speaking to Axios, a US official said the Biden administration made clear in meetings with the Israeli government that it supported a potential response but believed it should be measured.
Few observers believe an attack of large magnitude could be carried out without the support of the US.
Military bases
Israel could also target the same bases from which Iran’s missiles were launched.
Farzan Sabet, a senior research associate at the Global Governance Centre and the Sanctions and Sustainable Peace Hub at the Geneva Graduate Institute, told BI it’s possible Israel could target missile and drone facilities involved in the attacks or air defense systems.
However, Sabet added that Israel may instead want to coordinate a “much larger and more destructive attack,” including against nuclear facilities and leadership sites.
“I think we are already in a regional war, and this is what it looks like,” Sabet said.
“But we are not yet in an all-out war. Israel’s next steps will dictate whether it will escalate to a new rung in the ladder.”
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