Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner go head to head in their own tennis galaxy

What makes a tennis rivalry?

Ideally, the players are of a similar standard, but have different personalities and styles. There is a degree of unpredictability to the results of their matches, and those matches push them to greatness, while elevating the profile of the sport as a whole.

In men’s tennis, a great new rivalry is emerging that ticks these boxes. Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have now met 10 times, most recently on Wednesday in an instant classic in Beijing, and they are building something akin to their tennis forebears.

In the latest installment of their tussle for supremacy, Alcaraz won a thrilling China Open final 6-7(6), 6-4, 7-6(3) in three hours and 20 minutes. The tennis wasn’t just exceptional; it was played in the rareified air that no-one else on the tour right now can experience.

The match also embodied the contrast in style and personality that all the best rivalries have. Alcaraz is more expressive emotionally and plays high-risk, high-reward tennis compared to Sinner’s more serene, violent efficiency. When Alcaraz detonates a forehand, he emotes behind it; the only sound from Sinner is the crack of racket on ball. Alcaraz, 21, is shorter, but possesses an unrivalled explosiveness; Sinner, 23, is long-limbed with a thin frame.

Both are so quick that they look like they could be Olympic sprinters, and where Alcaraz lunges and bends like his limbs are putty, Sinner dives and twirls like a superhero escaping from a burning building.

Pushing each other to the LIMIT 🔥@carlosalcaraz @janniksin #ChinaOpen pic.twitter.com/nxDkbwzH5b

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) October 2, 2024

As things stand, these two are the best male tennis players in the world by a distance. They split the four Grand Slams of 2024, and as of this week, are once again the No. 1 and No. 2-ranked players.

Their own head-to-head stands at 6-4 in Alcaraz’s favour. He has won the last three meetings, but only after losing the first set each time, and only three of their 10 matches have been won in straight sets by either player. Those last three have all gone to a deciding set and have all taken place in 2024 — in Beijing, at the French Open, and at Indian Wells. Alcaraz’s three wins in those matches account for half of Sinner’s six defeats this year, and the Italian was on a 16-match winning streak before Alcaraz cut it down.

With 10 matches worth of data, comparisons with Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic or the battle between Pete Sampras and Andre Agassi are premature at this point, but trends are emerging. All the signs point to a rivalry that will endure at the top of the sport and perhaps transcend it, now and long after Sinner and Alcaraz have gone.

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How Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic reconfigured tennis

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Unlike the first 10 meetings between Nadal and Federer, Nadal and Djokovic and Federer and Djokovic, this looks to be a balanced beginning.

All three of those rivalries started with a 7-3 advantage, for Nadal, Nadal and Federer respectively. The Nadal-Federer rivalry was initially defined by a match-up problem, especially on clay, where the heavy topspin on the former’s forehand would wreak havoc with the latter’s single-handed backhand. With Djokovic, Nadal and Federer were both too wily and big-match tough when Djokovic first arrived on the tour and that initially gave them a big advantage.

In the case of Sinner and Alcaraz, despite the latter being two years younger, neither has been able to establish much of an edge over the other within matches. Alcaraz’s three consecutive wins have been very different: he came back from a first-set annihilation in Indian Wells by lofting his groundstrokes and breaking Sinner’s metronomic baseline game in the process. He then edged a battle of mutually enforced discomfort in the captivatingly scratchy French Open semifinal, and in Beijing was the dominant player for much of the match without converting, before seizing the title when he looked most likely to lose it.

One of the most enjoyable elements of their rivalry so far was also on full display in Beijing: the way that they push each other to greater heights. This was a staple too of the Big Three, and of Agassi and Sampras before them — the 1999 Wimbledon final and 2001 U.S. Open quarterfinal matches between the latter led to arguably the two finest performances of Sampras’s career.

This has happened a few times with Sinner and Alcaraz already, first at the 2022 U.S. Open quarterfinal, which introduced what was then an embryonic rivalry to a much wider audience. Alcaraz won the match in five sets, but the story was the computer game tennis the pair produced, constantly pushing each other to hit even more outrageous shots. Their Miami encounter in 2023 was similar, and so too was Wednesday, with a point in the final-set tiebreak which helped to shift things Alcaraz’s way showcasing all of their combined athleticism and court craft.

Both seem to relish this aspect of playing each other, like two child geniuses finally being put in an environment that is appropriate for their otherworldly talents. By playing each other and raising their games to an even higher level, they also pull further clear of the rest of the field, perhaps with the exception of Novak Djokovic when fully fit.

This dynamic will be familiar to fans of that Big Three era, which tennis writer Matthew Willis accurately coined an ouroboros. Each meeting between them, and the different stylistic and psychological battles therein, took Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic to a level that everybody else could not reach. They also played each other so often, especially in the latter stages of the Grand Slam tournaments, that they locked off the vital experience of losing a final or semifinal, let alone winning one.

As for their relationship, if it’s needle you want in a rivalry, Sinner-Alcaraz possibly isn’t for you. These two get along well and have practised together. After his win on Wednesday, Alcaraz said of Sinner: “I respect you a lot as a player but even more as a person.”

At the French Open in June both players were far more serious in the tunnel than they’d been at Indian Wells a few months earlier, when ahead of their semifinal they looked like two mates hanging out at a cocktail party.

The exhibition feel to their matches, in which it can sometimes feel that they are conspiring to produce the most spectacular points possible, is in reality a disguise. It’s not that they want to be hyper-aggressive and attacking as early in a point as possible, so much as they need to be, because if they aren’t, the other one will be. When they do settle into long rallies, there is the lurking promise that things are going to get absurd sooner or later.

On Wednesday there were numerous points like this, drawing gasps from the crowd and bringing to mind some of the exchanges between Nadal and Djokovic or Djokovic and Andy Murray when they used to face off against each other (such as in the 2012 U.S. Open final that lasted almost five hours, the long rallies getting better and better the longer they got). It can also seem as though the scoreboard is being drawn magnetically to a tight finish, with neither player able to run away from the other — this happened on Wednesday with the final set tiebreak and in New York two years ago too.

There is a cloud in this tennis sky. An independent hearing, convened by the International Tennis Integrity Agency (ITIA), had found Sinner bore “no fault or negligence” for two positive tests for the banned substance clostebol in March, but the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) announced on Saturday that it would appeal that ruling at the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS). It is seeking a ban of one or two years for the world No. 1, which would curtail this rivalry and fundamentally reshape men’s tennis.

That aspect of Sinner’s career remains shrouded in uncertainty. What isn’t in any doubt is the excitement tennis feels about his developing rivalry with Alcaraz. Ten meetings in, it promises to get better and better.

(Top photo: Wang Zhao / AFP via Getty Images)