10-year Treasury yield hovers near 4.2%, its highest level since late July
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose again on Tuesday after Federal Reserve officials urged caution on the path of interest rate cuts.
After jumping 12 basis points on Monday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose more than 2 basis points to 4.206%, a level it has not reached in three months. Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-year Treasury added less than one basis point to 4.032%.
Yields and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point equals 0.01%.
It is a quiet week on the data front, but a busy week for Federal Reserve commentary, with an array of policymakers delivering speeches.
On Monday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the longer-term trajectory for rates could be higher than it has been in the past, while Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan said a patient approach will be needed to lower rates.
Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid also on Monday said a “cautious and deliberate” approach to rate cuts was appropriate after the Fed cut by a half percentage point in September.
Rates have actually increased since the Fed cut rates by a half point one month ago. Strong economic data has been responsible for part of that gain, but so has uncertainty about how aggressive the central bank will be with rate cuts from here.
The market is pricing in a greater possibility that the Fed will only cut once through the remainder of the year. Traders see an 89% chance of a quarter-point cut at the Fed’s next meeting ending Nov. 7, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool based on fed funds futures trading. Markets are assigning only about a 1 in 3 chance that the Fed will follow that with another reduction in December, however.
— CNBC’s Jeff Cox contributed to this report.
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