Analysts suggest Black Ops 6 could lead to between 2.5m and 4m new Game Pass subscribers

The release of Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 on Game Pass will likely result in millions of new subscribers, analysts say.

GamesIndustry.biz asked a number of leading analysts how they felt the release would impact on Game Pass subscriptions. While the answers varied, the consensus was that the rise would be in the millions.

Ampere chief games analyst Piers Harding-Rolls told the publication that he felt the release of Black Ops 6 would result in a 10% increase in the number of Game Pass Ultimate subscribers, meaning around 2.5 million new sign-ups.

He notes, however, that “a good chunk” of these won’t be entirely new to Game Pass, but will instead likely be upgrading from Game Pass Core or Game Pass Standard, neither of which offer Black Ops 6 on its release day.

Wedbush Securities managing director Michael Pachter said he believed Xbox could see as many as 3 to 4 million new Game Pass Ultimate subscriptions as a result of Black Ops 6’s release, but warned that he also predicted around 6 million fewer ‘traditional’ sales of the game (given that numerous existing Game Pass Ultimate subscribers will want to play it too).

Pachter said the deal was “good overall for Microsoft and for consumers”, but noted that “the headline will say ‘Call of Duty sales are down’”.

Harding-Rolls added that while on paper including Black Ops 6 with Game Pass Ultimate would result in lost game sales, the live service nature of the game means Xbox may instead be hoping some of the Game Pass players will be encouraged to spend more money on microtransactions.

“There is no doubt that adding the latest Call of Duty will be expensive, at least initially, for Microsoft,” he told GI.biz. “However, Call of Duty is increasingly a live-service game first and foremost that monetises strongly in-game.

“Microsoft will be trading premium full-game sales in exchange for a bigger audience that can be monetised in-game instead.”

Players can now pre-load Black Ops 6 ahead of its release on October 25. The game will be available for Xbox Series X/S, Xbox One, PS5, PS4, and PC on the Microsoft Store, Battle.net and Steam, and will be available on Game Pass Ultimate and PC Game Pass.