Big Tech needs to go beyond beating expectations
A Microsoft store in New York, US, on Friday, Oct. 25, 2024.
Jeenah Moon | Bloomberg | Getty Images
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Big Tech drags down markets Major U.S. indexes slumped on Thursday, weighed down heavily by losses in Big Tech shares. All three indexes fell for the month. Asia-Pacific markets mostly followed Wall Street downwards on Friday morning, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 shedding around 2.5%. But China’s CSI 300 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose on news that China’s factory output grew in October.
Apple and Amazon beat estimates Apple’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and revenue exceeded LSEG consensus estimates. The Cupertino-based company’s iPhone revenue grew 6%. Meanwhile, Amazon also beat Wall Street’s expectations for its third-quarter earnings and revenue. While the company’s cloud division missed revenue expectations, it’s growing faster than it had in the same period last year.
Factory output for China grows China’s factory activity for smaller manufacturers expanded in October after a reading in September that indicated contraction. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing manager’s index came in at 50.3, beating the median estimate of 49.7 in a Reuters poll. The index tends to measure private sector companies and exporters, compared with the official PMI data, which tracks bigger state-owned firms.
New contract offer for Boeing workers Boeing and its machinists’ union have reached a new contract offer that may end a seven-week-long strike involving more than 32,000 machinists. The new proposal bumps up wage increases and gives the option of a ratification bonus. Voting is scheduled for Monday, and the union urged its members to approve the contract.
[PRO] Stock picks of wealth manager for the super-rich At the start of the year, CNBC Pro spoke with Kevin Teng, CEO of Wrise Private Singapore, a wealth management firm for ultra-high-net-worth clients, to find out which stocks he favored for 2024. CNBC Pro checked in with Teng again to find out how his picks have performed, and if he has changed his mind on the stocks he’s betting on.
Expectations for Big Tech are so high that, ironically, beating expectations is no longer enough for them.
Take Microsoft, for one. The company handily beat Wall Street’s estimates – quarterly revenue was $1 billion more than expected and net income jumped 11% from the year-ago quarter – but its shares sank 6.1% Thursday. A conservative forecast for the quarter ending December disappointed investors, and gave Microsoft its worst day since Oct. 26, 2022.
The picture’s roughly the same with shares of Meta and Apple. Even Alphabet shares, which rose nearly 3% after reporting earnings on Wednesday, retreated 1.9% Thursday.
“I think we’re getting to the point where AI enthusiasm and potential is not enough. These companies … are not quite delivering the growth that is priced into them,” said Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird Private Wealth Management.
The magnitude of the losses in those Big Tech companies dragged down the Nasdaq Composite, which fell 2.76%. The S&P 500, weighted heavily towards those megacap corporations, tumbled 1.86%. Both indexes had their worst day since Sept. 3. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.9%. All indexes ended October in the red.
Some analysts, however, are still optimistic about Big Tech’s catalyst to the growth of stocks.
“The continued growth in AI-related capex reported by all three tech giants supports the positive structural trend,” Solita Marcelli, UBS Global Wealth Management’s CIO for the Americas, wrote in a note. Marcelli was referring to Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta.
Likewise, Piper Sandler’s chief market technician Craig Johnson wrote to clients that “the overall technical evidence remains constructive, and the primary trend of the major averages is higher,” even if there are “near-term pullbacks or modest profit-taking.”
Therein lies the outsized burden on Big Tech. Investors and analysts don’t just expect those companies to beat estimates. They also want megacap companies to drive markets, which is contingent more on growth prospects than earnings.
In essence, Big Tech, more than any other sector, has to satisfy expectations for both the past and the future at the same time.
— CNBC’s Jordan Novet, Jesse Pound, Alex Harring, Hakyung Kim and Brian Evans contributed to this report.
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