Breeders’ Cup 2024: Expert picks, odds and previews for the Classic and Saturday’s other races

Day 2 of the Breeder’s Cup features eight Grade 1 races, including the much-anticipated Breeders’ Cup Classic. To accommodate the college football schedule, the marquee race, called the Classic, is being run mid-card with a post time of 5:41 p.m. ET.

TV coverage for Saturday’s events starts at 2:00 p.m. on USA, shifting to NBC at 3:30 p.m. and going back to USA at 6:00 p.m. (All times Eastern.)

You can also watch throughout the day on Fubo, Peacock, NBCSports.com and the NBC Sports app. All Breeders’ Cup races except the Classic will also be available on FanDuel TV.

Below, I’ve highlighted horses that I find intriguing for one reason or another: their talent, their speed, their story or their connections. I try to look beyond favorites to horses that might spice up vertical exotics (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), and if I get beat by a favorite, so be it.

Good luck and safe trips to all.

Filly and Mare Sprint

Post time: 3:00 p.m. ET
Purse: $1 million
Distance: 7 furlongs

The remarkably consistent No. 4 Vahva (16 races, six wins, three seconds, three thirds) takes her first shot at the Breeders’ Cup this year. Though she came in a disappointing third as the favorite in the Grade 1 Ballerina Stakes at Saratoga and has been unraced since then, she’s raced exclusively in graded stakes races going back to May 2023. She’s raced well off layoffs in the past, and that’s why she’s always a factor. Her record is 8-5-2-1 at the distance, and the morning line odds put Vahva at 4-1.

No. 9 Ways and Means (5-2) is a deserving favorite, and No. 6 Society (3-1) has cut back to this distance after faltering at routes and a seventh-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff last year.

If you are looking to make a long-shot bet, I like No. 10 Scylla (10-1). Her profile is the sort that would normally make me play against — she is winless and inexperienced at the distance and has no Grade 1 wins. But I never count out trainer Bill Mott, and jockey Mike Smith has won more Breeders’ Cup races (27) than any jockey.

Turf Sprint

Post time: 3:41 p.m. ET
Purse: $1 million
Distance: 5 furlongs

Last year, I liked long-shot No. 8 Big Invasion (20-1) in this spot. He finished second by a neck, and he’s back this year to take another shot. From 14 starts at the distance, he’s won 10 and finished third in three others. He and superstar jockey Frankie Dettori will need to work out a trip in a crowded field at a short distance, and while he might not be good enough to win, he’ll be on my tickets.

No. 11 Big Evs (12-1) returns to the Breeders’ Cup after winning the Juvenile Turf Sprint last year at this distance, at which he’s run 10 times with six wins and only two times finished worse than third. The Irish-bred has racked up graded-stakes wins in England over the last year, and there’s no reason to think that he won’t be a factor again this year.

It would be foolhardy to overlook heavy favorite No. 9 Cogburn (7-5). Undefeated at the distance and a graded stakes winner in all three of his races this year, he’s got a versatile running style and a world-class jockey who can adapt to the pace as it plays out.

No. 10 Isivunguvungu (20-1) has raced only once in the United States, a win in a listed stakes race in September, but he’s impressed in graded stakes in his native South Africa, and I think he’s worth a sprinkle. Trainer H. Graham Motion on the grass is a combo I’m happy to bet at any price, and it’s paid off for me on big racing days in the past.

Distaff

Post time: 4:21 p.m. ET
Purse: $2 million
Distance: 1 1/8 miles

Last year’s winner, Idiomatic, was expected to run here, but she was retired after getting injured a week before the race. Accomplished as she is, she still would have had her hands full with No. 2 Thorpedo Anna (4-5), whose only loss this year came in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes, when she raced against males and lost by a head to Fierceness, who’ll contest the Classic later on the card.

She is one impressive filly. Three for three at the distance, seven wins in nine races with two runner-up finishes — one could arguably say that this race comes at the end of a rigorous campaign and might be too much. You could also say that she’s fast and strong and absolutely the one to beat.

You can also file under “chalky” No. 6 Raging Sea (7-2), who relishes this nine-furlong distance and comes to the Distaff off two Grade 1 wins. If Thorpedo Anna goes to the lead and someone goes with her and cooks her, this filly is a logical one to sit off the pace and pounce late.

More Japanese horses than ever before have traveled to the U.S. for the Breeders’ Cup this year, and No. 9 Awesome Result is undefeated. She was bred in the United States and is sired by Triple Crown winner Justify, and all but one of her wins have come by comfortable margins, including the three at this distance.

Turf

Post time: 5:01 p.m. ET
Purse: $5 million
Distance: 1 1/2 miles

European runners have dominated this race, winning eight of the last 11 renewals and 25 of 39 overall. The 2023 winner, No. 11 Rebel’s Romance (5-2), is back after taking last year off and is the morning line favorite. He’s won Grade 1 races in Hong Kong, Dubai and Qatar this year, and with a ton of success at this distance, there’s no reason to think that he can’t add to his international trophy case.

Fillies and mares run against their male counterparts more often in Europe than they do in the United States, and No. 2 Emily Upjohn (5-1) makes her first trip to the U.S. to run here. She hasn’t won since the summer of 2023 in the Grade 1 Coral Eclipse in Britain, but she’s usually competitive and might spice up your exotics.

U.S.-based and -bred No. 6 Far Bridge (6-1) heads into this race off two wins in Grade 1 races, both at this distance. The high-profile connections of No. 4 Luxembourg (12-1) are used to winning races at this level, and this price on an Aidan O’Brien trainee is a rarity.

Classic

Post time: 5:41 p.m. ET
Purse: $7 million
Distance: 1 1/4 miles

Horses that are bred or trained in Japan have been ascendant over the last five or so years in U.S. dirt racing, and there are three of them running in this year’s Classic. Last year, I characterized Japanese-bred No. 7 Ushba Tesoro (12-1) as “a threat,” and he ended up finishing fourth by 4 1/2 lengths. He’s back this year to take another crack at the Classic, and since his last trip to the U.S., he’s won a Grade 1 and finished second in two others.

No. 1 Forever Young (6-1) was third in this year’s Kentucky Derby, beaten by less than a length by the two horses that finished in front of him. He went back to Japan after the Derby and won the Japan Dirt Classic in October. Earlier this year, he’d won five straight: three in Japan, one in Saudi Arabia and one in Dubai. He’s got two wins and a third at the distance, and he looms large here.

No. 3 City of Troy (5-2) was bred in Kentucky and sired by Justify, but he’s spent his whole career in Europe, running in Britain and Ireland, where he’s won six of seven races, including at route distances. What he’s never done is run on dirt, and they say that you never bet a horse that’s favored doing something that he’s never done before. That works for me here, and while I’m not sure he’ll be favored come post time, I’m happy to let him beat me.

Second favorite at 3-1, No. 9 Fierceness has been inconsistent throughout his career, never putting together two wins in a row until this summer, when he won the Jim Dandy and the Travers Stakes at Saratoga. He’s super-talented, but I’m not sure that I trust him.

The story of the race may well be No. 14 Next (8-1), who’s made his career running marathons, entailing distances of a mile and a quarter and longer. He’s won seven in a row and 13 of 23 lifetime, often by 10 lengths or more, and there’s no doubt that he is a supremely talented horse. The thing is that races of that distance aren’t generally of Grade 1 caliber, and neither are the horses that run in them. Kudos to his connections for taking a shot here.

Filly and Mare Turf

Post time: 6:25 p.m. ET
Purse: $2 million purse
Distance: 1 3/8 miles

This is another race that’s been the province of international runners; it’s been nearly a decade since a horse bred in the United States has won it.

That said, there are some domestic runners here that catch my eye, and I’ll be upfront about saying that in the case of one of them, it’s because I really want to see her win.

That’s No. 4 War Like Goddess (5-2). She is not purely a sentimental pick, as she’s the morning line favorite, and her record holds up against pretty much everyone else here. This is the fourth Breeders’ Cup for the 7-year-old, which is impressive in and of itself. But she’s yet to make it to the winner’s circle, though she finished third in 2021 and 2022. She’s never been worse than third at the distance and has four wins in seven starts at 1 ⅜, but she’s got only one win this year and faces formidable competition.

No. 10 Moira (8-1) is another sentimental favorite; this is her third attempt at this race, and she finished third in it last year. Distance is not a worry for her, and though she’s lightly raced this year, she’s been competitive in all three starts, including a win in the Grade 2 Beverly D. in August.

Trainer Graham Motion brings another long-shot threat here in No. 11 Beach Bomb (20-1), who began racing in the U.S. this summer after beginning her career in South Africa, where she was bred. Of the Euros, I’m inclined towards No. 3 Cinderella’s Dream (4-1), who was based in the U.S. this summer and turned in two impressive Grade 1 wins in New York.

Sprint

Post time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Purse: $2 million
Distance: 6 furlongs

No. 10 Mullikin (7-2) turned in an impressive performance in this summer’s Grade 1 Forego Stakes at Saratoga, winning by 5 3/4 lengths as the odds-on favorite. It was his first Grade 1 win, with his first graded stakes win coming in July in a Grade 2. Before those two races, the company that he’d been keeping was pretty far below what he’ll face here, so this should be the biggest test of this 4-year-old’s career.

One of two Japanese runners here, No. 5 Don Frankie (15-1), thrives at this distance and owns a Group 1 win in Japan. This is a big ask, but I’m intrigued at that price.

Not a lot in the record of No. 11 Skelly (8-1) suggests that he can run with these, but he is a sprint specialist from the barn of a trainer who trained some of the best sprinters of the last few years.

Mile

Post time: 7:45 p.m. ET
Purse: $2 million purse
Distance: 1 mile

European horses specialize on this surface at this distance, so let’s start there. No. 7 Porta Fortuna (4-1) has won her last three races, two of them Grade 1, and she was a narrow runner-up in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. She’s taking on elders here and running against males, but she’s game and loves the distance.

No. 12 Carl Spackler (6-1) is one of the more dominant U.S. runners here, with a handful of graded stakes wins on his resume, and he comes to the race off two straight Grade 1 wins. He’s got Irish turf blood on his sire side and stamina on his dam side; nothing not to like.

Long-shot No. 8 More Than Looks (20-1) intrigues me, given his affinity for the distance, though he’s winless at this level and was beaten in his last two races by Carl Spackler.

Dirt Mile

Post time: 8:25 p.m. ET
Purse: $1 million
Distance: 1 mile

No. 8 Post Time (12-1) has had a heck of a year, never finishing worse than third. His best performance came in the Grade 1 Whitney at Saratoga, a third-place finish at odds of 25-1 that showed that he belongs in elite company. He loves the distance and has guts.

Only one winner of a Triple Crown race made it to the Breeders’ Cup, and that’s No. 6 Seize the Gray (10-1). He’s done his best running racing longer but does have a win at the distance.

An import from Argentina, No. 3 Full Serrano (15-1) has run twice at Del Mar, earning an easy win and a close second, and he demonstrated in his South American races his appreciation of the mile. The talent is there, though he’s taking a big step up in competition.

At a shorter price, don’t ignore No. 9 Domestic Product (7-2) who is stretching out from seven furlongs to a mile after running at longer distances earlier this year. He won by 7 1/2 lengths in his only attempt at this distance.

(Illustration: Meech Robinson, The Athletic; Photos by: Orlando Ramirez / Getty Images)