U.S. election reaction, BoE and Fed rates
Europe is seen as a loser of a Trump presidency, Barclays strategist says
Donald Trump’s historic election victory over Vice President Kamala Harris is likely to dent the outlook for European stocks, according to one strategist.
“I think Europe is seen as a loser of a Trump presidency,” Emmanuel Cau, head of European equity strategy at Barclays, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.
“A lot of that was priced in, right? Definitely in the last six months, we have seen European equities underperforming on the expectation that Trump would win and would put some tariff policy that would be negative for Europe, and that’s what we got yesterday, right?” he added.
“So, the risk is priced in but it’s still very weird now that Trump has been elected,” Cau said.
His comments come after a surge in U.S. stocks on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average soaring by more than 1,500 points. By contrast, European stocks closed lower in the previous session.
— Sam Meredith
Adyen posts 21% jump in third-quarter sales
Adyen reported a big miss on first-half sales Thursday. The news drove a $20 billion rout in the company’s market capitalization .
Pavlo Gonchar | Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images
Adyen reported a jump in sales in the third quarter as the Dutch payments firm gained wallet share and added new customers, diversifying its merchant mix.
The company, whose technology allows businesses to accept payments online and in-store, reported third-quarter net revenue of 498.3 million ($535.5 million), up 21% year-over-year on a constant currency basis.
It comes after Adyen shares tanked nearly 40% in a single day last August on the back of worse-than-expected sales and declining profits.
Read the full earnings story here.
– Ryan Browne
UK supermarket Sainsbury’s maintains profit outlook
A Sainsbury’s sign stands on top of a fuel station gantry, in view of an Asda sign above the entrance to the supermarket in Watford, U.K., on Monday, April 30, 2018.
Chris Ratcliffe | Bloomberg | Getty Images
U.K. supermarket group Sainsbury’s has reported a 3.7% rise in retail underlying operating profit for the first half of the fiscal year.
The U.K.’s second-largest supermarket chain said retail underlying operating profit rose to £503 million ($650.7 million) in the six months to Sept.14 , up from £485 million in the same period last year.
It added that it expected to deliver retail underlying operating profit in 2024/2025 of between £1.01 billion and £1.06 billion and growth of between 5% and 10% from the previous year.
The supermarket group added that the strong growth of Sainsbury’s and its Nectar loyalty scheme was partially offset by a lower contribution from Argos, its general merchandise offering.
“We remain confident of delivering strong profit growth in the full year, with continued leverage from Sainsbury’s grocery volume growth and a stronger Argos H2 [second half] performance,” Sainsbury’s said in a statement.
— Holly Ellyatt
Delivery Hero updates profit forecast
BERLIN, GERMANY – SEPTEMBER 04: The Delivery Hero office photographed on September 04, 2020 in Berlin, Germany. (Photo by Jeremy Moeller/Getty Images)
Jeremy Moeller | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images
Delivery Hero reported a jump in third-quarter revenues Thursday and updated sales forecasts, saying it now expects full-year earnings to come in at the lower end of its previous guidance.
The Berlin, Germany-headquartered food delivery firm said that sales in the three months ending in September grew by 24%, driven by stronger monetization.
Gross merchandise value (GMV), which is the total value of orders processed through its platform, climbed 9% year-over-year, with the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) accounting for the bulk of the growth.
Annual GMV growth in the MENA region was 30%, boosted by a 25% year-over-year increase in regional order volumes. The strong MENA growth comes as Delivery Hero plans to spin off its Middle East business Talabat and float it on the Dubai stock exchange later this year.
Delivery Hero also updated guidance Thursday, noting that it now expects revenue growth for the full year to come in at the upper end of its 18% to 21% guidance.
Full-year adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), meanwhile, is now expected to come in at the lower end of 725 million euros to 775 million euros, Delivery Hero said.
— Ryan Browne
The Fed is expected to cut interest rates again Thursday
U.S. Federal Reserve Bank Chair Jerome Powell announces that interest rates will remain unchanged during a news conference at the Federal Reserves’ William McChesney Martin building on June 12, 2024 in Washington, DC.
Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images
The Federal Reserve likely will stick to the business at hand when it wraps up its meeting Thursday with another interest rate cut, but will have its eye on the future against a backdrop that suddenly has gotten a lot more complicated.
Financial markets are pricing in a near-certainty that the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee will lower its benchmark borrowing cost by a quarter percentage point as it seeks to “recalibrate” policy for an economy that is seeing the inflation rate moderate and the labor market soften.
The focus, though, will turn to what’s ahead for Chair Jerome Powell and his Fed colleagues as they navigate a shifting economy — and the political earthquake of Donald Trump’s stunning victory in the presidential race.
Read more on the story here: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates again Thursday. Here’s everything you need to know
— Jeff Cox
Trump win and threat of more tariffs raises expectations for more China stimulus
BEIJING, CHINA – SEPTEMBER 04: Buildings and vehicles are seen in the central business district during the rush hour on September 4, 2020 in Beijing, China.
Zhang Qiao | Visual China Group | Getty Images
Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential win has raised the bar for China’s fiscal stimulus plans, expected Friday.
On the campaign trial, Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs of 60% or more on Chinese goods sold to the U.S. Increased duties of at least 10% under Trump’s first term as president did not dent America’s position as China’s largest trading partner.
But new tariffs — potentially on a larger scale — would come at a pivotal time for China. The country is relying more on exports for growth as it battles with a real estate slump and tepid consumer spending.
Read more on the story here
— Evelyn Cheng
Adyen posts 21% jump in third-quarter sales
Adyen reported a big miss on first-half sales Thursday. The news drove a $20 billion rout in the company’s market capitalization .
Pavlo Gonchar | Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images
Adyen reported a jump in sales in the third quarter as the Dutch payments firm gained wallet share and added new customers, diversifying its merchant mix.
The company, whose technology allows businesses to accept payments online and in-store, reported third-quarter net revenue of 498.3 million ($535.5 million), up 21% year-over-year on a constant currency basis.
It comes after Adyen shares tanked nearly 40% in a single day last August on the back of worse-than-expected sales and declining profits.
Read the full earnings story here.
– Ryan Browne
Chances of a 10% universal tariff under Trump next year are ‘low,’ says Michael Feroli
President-elect Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policy may not be set in stone yet, according to JPMorgan’s Michael Feroli.
“We think odds of a 10% across-the-board tariff in 2025 are low, in part for procedural reasons,” the analyst wrote in a Wednesday note. “China, on the other hand, is likely to face significantly higher effective tariffs.”
Throughout his campaign, the former president has vowed to implement across-the-board tariffs of 10% to 20% on imports entering the U.S. Meanwhile, for Chinese goods, he’s proposed a levy of between 60% to 100%.
— Sean Conlon
Here is how the stock market performs historically after an election
Here is how stocks can perform into year-end, now that markets have gotten past the election, according to Goldman Sachs’ Scott Rubner.
Historically speaking, stocks rally into year-end from Election Day. However, the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 perform even better during presidential election years, while the Nasdaq Composite does worse.
Take a look at their historical performance between Nov. 5th through Dec. 31st.
Historically, the S&P 500 rises 2.68% on average from Nov. 5th to Dec. 31st, in data going back to 1928. However, in election years, the broader index rallies 3.38% over the same time period.Typically, the Nasdaq gains an average 5.53% between Election Day and year’s end, in data going back to 1985. In election years, however, the benchmark gains just 0.79% over the same period.In its history, the Russell 2000 gains 5.70%, on average, going back to 1979. In election years, the small-cap index surges 7.94% from Nov. 5th to December 31st.
— Sarah Min
CNBC Pro: Beyond ASML: Goldman reveals its refreshed list of top European stocks – giving one 50% upside
Dutch behemoth ASML has been a favorite among investors this year, but Goldman Sachs has adopted a cautious stance on the stock and removed it from its conviction list of top stocks.
Besides ASML, Goldman also removed several stocks from its Europe conviction list for November, and refreshed it by adding others
The stocks are featured in the investment bank’s “Conviction List – Directors’ Cut,” which it says offers a “curated and active” list of buy-rated stocks.
CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.
— Amala Balakrishner
Chinese EV stocks extend losses after Trump victory
Chinese electric vehicle stocks extended their losses after Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential elections.
Geely Automotive and BYD Co were among the top losers on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, shedding 2.61% and 3.32%, respectively, Eikon data showed.
Other EV makers also fell, with Nio losing 2.86% and Xpeng down 1.42%. Xiaomi, which recently entered the EV market, was down 1.81%.
Stock Chart IconStock chart icon
European markets: Here are the opening calls
European markets are expected to open in mixed territory Thursday.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected to open 14 points higher at 8,159, Germany’s DAX up 25 points at 19,063, France’s CAC down 12 points at 7,341 and Italy’s FTSE MIB up 23 points at 33,703, according to data from IG.
Earnings are set to come from Zurich Insurance, Daimler Truck, Lanxess, Veolia, Legrand, Novonesis, National Grid, Sainsbury’s, ITV, BT, Telefonica, ArcelorMittal, Munich Re, Heidelberg materials, Rheinmetall, Tate & Lyle, EDP, Euronext and AF-KLM.
German trade balance data will be released and the Bank of England announces its latest monetary policy decision.
— Holly Ellyatt
#U.S #election #reaction #BoE #Fed #rates