NFL QB stock report, Week 11: Caleb Williams’ flaws have followed him from college

The Chicago Bears’ midseason offensive regression has raised concerns over Caleb Williams’ long-term viability as a franchise quarterback.

It’s important to be measured with this assessment, especially for Bears fans who have seen this movie a few times before. First, it’s fair to be critical of Williams’ recent flaws. Second, it’s also fair to point out that the struggles are not entirely Williams’ fault. And third, let’s not be hasty in burying a 22-year-old with nine career starts.

Williams has taken a league-high 38 sacks in part because he’s holding the ball too long and failing to trust his reads. But there have also been predictable issues with the offensive line, along with flaws in play designs (route spacing and timing) and play calls. Williams’ 15 sacks over the past two games are more than three teams have allowed all season — the most obvious sign of diminished confidence.

“He is doing the same things he did in college in terms of holding the ball and being inconsistent with his reads,” a rival executive said. “He could get away with running around, throwing the ball up for grabs, throwing across his body, and he had some success doing that. You don’t get away with that at the NFL level too often. I’m a little surprised they haven’t been able to clean some of this up.”

Another executive corroborated that evaluation.

“Their ability to protect him was going to be the question,” the second executive said. “He always held the ball too long, so you have to minimize pure dropback situations and support him with a run game, which improves the impact of your RPO, QB movement and play action.”

Williams was a magician at USC, drumming up comparisons to Patrick Mahomes with his off-schedule playmaking ability, and some of that has been on display with the Bears. Problematically, however, Williams seems to be relying too much on the improvisational stuff. It’s common for young quarterbacks to revert to their most comfortable tendencies when the pressure ratchets up, and that’s led to some of Williams’ problems.

99 + 41 = the 5th Pats sack today ‼️

📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/ppqt8toDbk

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) November 10, 2024

To combat that, the Bears need to proactively find ways to make Williams comfortable before things naturally become tense. The goal is to help him play without overthinking, to anticipate the throws rather than waiting to see the routes develop and to keep the offense on schedule.

That’s easier said than done, of course.

“It’s really tough, probably one of the most difficult things to do especially with a guy like that who is so used to holding it and running around to extend plays,” an offensive coach said. “It’s just repetition and emphasis. And at some point, it has to click. There’s really no easy way. It’s a process.

“They need to run some stuff that he’s comfortable with as well and give him some opportunities to extend things. It’s a huge challenge, regardless.”

The coach chalked it up primarily as “typical rookie” struggles with the timing and confidence in his reads, although the Bears’ offensive scheme needs improvement. Bears coach Matt Eberflus said Monday the team is evaluating whether offensive coordinator Shane Waldron will remain in his role as the play caller.

The defense was buzzing yesterday.@MikeDussault19 highlights the key contributors on the defensive side: pic.twitter.com/q9fL97HvpU

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) November 11, 2024

Williams’ issues have been magnified by another factor. The Bears’ three-game losing streak has included games against rookies Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye, both of whom have played very well and remain on an upward trajectory.

“The expectations on him were so high,” the coach said. “No way he was going to be able to match those.”

It’s enough for Bears fans to have flashbacks of Mitch Trubisky and Justin Fields, highly drafted QBs who didn’t pan out because of poor evaluations or bad overall situations. Williams has the talent, but it’s on the organization to fully cultivate it.

They were on the right track for a while, improving to 4-2 after posting 71 points in back-to-back wins against the Panthers and Jaguars, but the team — and the offense in particular — has been flat since Daniels beat them with a Hail Mary in Week 8. The lull has exposed issues that extend beyond the rookie quarterback.

Williams’ exciting flashes suggest enough talent exists for him to still grow into a bona fide franchise quarterback. He was the consensus No. 1 pick before the draft for a litany of reasons, so the Bears’ evaluation holds up.

But they’ve got to keep working with Williams to ensure it works out the way they envisioned.

Hey, Darnold

Sam Darnold is delivering the best season of his career, as coach Kevin O’Connell has tapped into the potential that made the QB the No. 3 pick in 2018. In all likelihood, Darnold has been productive enough that he’ll be the top quarterback in free agency, which means a monster contract should be in his future.

However, Darnold endured the type of performance Sunday against the Jaguars that will fuel skepticism as the Vikings gear up for the playoffs. He was 24-of-38 for 241 yards passing with no touchdowns and three interceptions.

The three picks were egregious. The first was just outside the red zone, while the other pair happened in the end zone. Darnold was targeting wideout Justin Jefferson on all three.

Darnold simply needs to play within himself to be successful. The Vikings have an outstanding defense, stars at the skill positions, a complementary running game and a high-level, QB-friendly scheme.

Darnell Savage brings in our third INT of the day!@darnellsavage_ | #MINvsJAX on FOX pic.twitter.com/Ch7HAtKn2h

— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) November 10, 2024

The 27-year-old merely has to make the plays that are available to him and stay safe with the ball. His accuracy was erratic throughout the 12-7 victory in Jacksonville, and all three interceptions took points off the board.

Worse, this was against a woeful Jaguars defense that entered the game ranked third worst in points allowed and second worst in both total yards and passing yards. They had two — yes, two — interceptions all season and allowed at least 28 points in five of their previous seven games.

Maybe it was just a bad day. Everyone has them. Tom Brady had three interceptions in nine games.

But if the Vikings are going to make any noise in the playoffs against much tougher defenses than the Jaguars, Darnold has to be much better and prove this was a fluke. If that happens, he’ll land a life-changing contract in the offseason.

Ripple effects in Jacksonville

The Jaguars have lost 13 of their last 16 games, and Trevor Lawrence was regressing before the left shoulder injury that kept him out Sunday. And the defense has gotten worse after head coach Doug Pederson made some offseason staff firings, which is a combination of factors that generally results in further change.

If the Jaguars are in the coaching market after the season, a couple of rival executives agreed Jacksonville could be a prime spot.

“You get to work with Trevor and try to help him put it all back together,” one of the executives said. “He hasn’t been great, but I still think he has all the tools to be a good quarterback. That’s going to be a job people should want.”

Lawrence signed a five-year, $275 million contract before training camp, but his numbers have trended in the wrong direction for the second season in a row. There have been issues with the Jaguars’ ground game and a myriad of mistakes littered throughout the offense, including drops and penalties that have plagued the group for the better part of two years.

The point is, Lawrence shouldn’t be shouldering so much of the blame. It would be a chore for any quarterback to play well in that situation. And there’s no denying how well he played in 2022, along with how much the Jaguars continuously rallied around him from late deficits.

No, Lawrence hasn’t lived up to the pre-draft hype as a generational type of quarterback, but no one can do it alone. If the Jaguars improve the operation around him, they’ll maximize the return on investment.

Short term, if Lawrence continues to miss time, this presents an intriguing opportunity for Mac Jones. He didn’t play well against the Vikings, but Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores has made life hell for Brock Purdy, C.J. Stroud, Jordan Love and Aaron Rodgers this season. You’ll have to excuse Jones for a pedestrian outing in his first start with a new team in the 10th game of the season.

Problematically for Jones, though, the Jaguars visit the Lions this week and then come out of their bye against the Texans. That’s a grueling stretch for the former first-round pick who is hoping to use this as an audition for next season.

Jones could capitalize if Lawrence’s absence lasts longer, as the Jags close the season with the Titans, Jets, Raiders, Titans and Colts. If Jones can put together some good tape, he could work his way into a camp competition against a young QB, similar to the way Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith and Darnold have recently revived their careers. Otherwise, Jones will likely remain on the backup circuit for a while longer.

(Photo of Caleb Williams: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)