Trump sent two stimulus checks in his first term. Here’s what experts say about another payment.

President-elect Donald Trump in his first term as president sent out two stimulus checks to millions of Americans during the pandemic, part of the federal government’s goal of keeping consumers financially afloat during the crisis. Now, some social media posts are claiming that Trump, once he takes office next year, may issue another check — a likelihood that experts say is extremely slim. 

Posts on TikTok are suggesting Trump might issue another round of checks, while on X, some users are questioning if they’re in line for a payment. 

When the COVID-19 health emergency shuttered the economy in 2020, millions of Americans lost their jobs, sending the jobless rate to almost 15% and causing financial hardship for many. As a result, Trump signed two bills that sent stimulus checks to eligible households, while President Biden authorized a third. 

Even though many Americans feel the economy is faring badly, with some pointing to the impact of the pandemic’s high inflation, the U.S. isn’t anywhere close to the situation of the early 2020s, economists say.  

“Stimulus checks typically only happen when the economy is in really bad shape and consumers need a push to start spending money again,” LendingTree senior economist Jacob Channel told CBS MoneyWatch. “That’s not really the case in the present.”

Is the economy bad enough for a new stimulus check?

While a majority of Americans give the economy poor ratings, economists say that it’s in good shape overall, with solid GDP growth, inflation that is inching closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual goal and a jobless rate of 4.1% — which is near a 50-year low. 

“Despite some pain points and general ‘bad vibes’ expressed by some people, the economy is currently in remarkably good shape and consumer spending is relatively strong,” Channel said. 

Even so, many inflation-weary consumers say they haven’t yet seen the benefit of that growth. The November 5 presidential election was viewed as a mandate from voters for a new economic direction.

Could Trump issue a stimulus check? 

While some consumers might believe that Trump or Biden alone was responsible for sending out stimulus checks — perhaps because Trump put his name on the memo line of the first check — the payments were part of three bills passed by Congress, which were then sent to the sitting president for his signature. 

“A president can’t unilaterally issue stimulus checks, and the ones sent out during his last administration were largely the result of a push from Democrats in the House and Senate,” Channel noted. “Though Trump ultimately did sign the bill that sent stimulus checks to Americans, he isn’t solely responsible for them.”

In other words, there would first need to be legislation passed by Congress to authorize another stimulus check, something that currently isn’t on the horizon.

Would a stimulus check impact inflation?

With the Federal Reserve still aiming to pare inflation to a 2% annual rate — it stood at 2.6% last month — policymakers are likely to be cautious about any actions that could reignite inflation. Some economists have pointed to the surge in federal spending during the pandemic as helping to create the conditions that led to the hottest inflation in 40 years. 

“Because inflation is still such a big concern at the moment, the last thing a reasonable government would want to do is further stimulate consumer demand with stimulus checks because doing so would unnecessarily risk causing a resurgence in inflation,” Channel noted. 

That being said, Trump’s economic policies, including adding tariffs to imports and deporting millions of undocumented immigrants, could cause an inflation bump of as much of 1 percentage point, economists have said. That would push inflation to a range of about 3.6%, which Wall Street cautions could cause the Fed to hold off on further rate cuts.

Could the IRS issue stimulus checks in 2024? 

The IRS sent the three rounds of pandemic stimulus checks after they were authorized by Congress and signed into law by Trump and Biden. In other words, without Congress’ approval, the IRS won’t be sending any stimulus checks in 2024. 

Currently there is no legislation in the works for stimulus spending, and such legislation is also considered extremely unlikely to occur in 2025. Instead, Trump and Republican lawmakers are likely to focus on tax legislation to extend the tax cuts in his 2017 Tax Cuts & Jobs Act, as well as tackling other spending issues, experts say.