Devil’s advocate: Why Yankees’ pursuit of Juan Soto shouldn’t go all out

Grab a rotten tomato. Raise your fist and prepare to shake it. Add honey to your tea, clear your throat and ready yourself for a Bronx cheer.

Because while New York Yankees fans should be eager to spend owner Hal Steinbrenner’s money to sign Juan Soto, there are reasons teams should pause before giving him half a billion dollars. Actually, there are a few.

Look, we’re not saying it shouldn’t be the Yankees’ top priority to re-sign the star slugger. In fact, we believe he should receive a record free-agent contract of some sort. The $611 million, 13-year deal projected by The Athletic’s Tim Britton seemed more than reasonable for Soto, who possesses a rare blend of youth at age 26 and generational left-handed-hitting talent. Plus, he’s a box office draw rivaled only by Aaron Judge, perhaps destined for the Hall of Fame and a plaque in Monument Park.

But of course, what’s reasonable in free agency will have you on the outside looking in on the best talent. Soto won’t offer a Black Friday discount.

So, the bidding is sure to boggle the mind and, yes, the Yankees should be in on that, too. But it’s not preposterous to think there’s a certain point at which buyer’s remorse may set in.

Maybe Judge said it best after receiving his 2024 American League MVP Award on Friday.

“It ain’t my money,” he said. “I don’t really care.”

And that should be the opinion of Yankees fans, too. They just watched the Yankees make their first World Series since 2009. The biggest difference in the season? Soto hitting ahead of Judge.

But hear us out.

What if there were holes in the game of a player who’s about to make half a billion dollars?

He’s not a great defender

Heading into 2024, the expectation was that the Yankees would shift Soto — regarded as a below-average defender — from left field where played with the San Diego Padres to right field. That was because, theoretically, right field at Yankee Stadium — with its short porch and relatively less ground to cover — was going to be much easier on Soto. And it likely was.

On May 21, The Athletic published a story detailing how Soto had improved his glove game. Third-base coach and outfield coordinator Luis Rojas raved about how much time and effort Soto pored into defense, learning the nuances of a different position. At the time, Soto had been holding his own defensively, posting zero outs above average through 48 games, according to Baseball Savant.

“I think he showed up here with a goal,” Rojas said at the time, “just wondering why he’d been below average in some categories defensively.”

And then Soto’s defense started to slide. He started to look awkward while making some reads. On some plays, he appeared either slightly out of position or unable to make up the ground necessary to make a catch. His throws remained mostly fine.

“He’s been a liability out there. You wonder why they want to play him in the deepest corner outfield position in this ballpark. Yankee Stadium, yes. But that’s a fly ball. That’s gotta be caught.”

Keith Hernandez on a Juan Soto misplay. pic.twitter.com/YXu1r5N8lD

— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) June 27, 2024

Soto finished the season with minus-5 OAA — the sixth-worst mark among 42 qualified right fielders. On balls hit to his right, he was worth minus-2 OAA. Despite often playing deep in right field at home, he was worth minus-3 OAA going back on balls, which was tied for worst with the Texas Rangers’ Adolis Garcia among those qualified at his position. Baseball Savant’s fielding run value metric was kinder to Soto, marking him at minus-1, seventh best among right fielders.

A long-term Judge plan

Moving Judge to center field for the 2024 season made plenty of sense. Soto needed to play right field and Judge had plenty of experience in center. Plus, left field at Yankee Stadium is arguably more difficult than center due to the sheer amount of ground that must be covered compared to other ballparks.

If you ask evaluators, Judge passes the eye test in center field with solid routes, sure hands and an above-average arm. He just didn’t cover a ton of ground all the time and he made sure not to hurt himself — the smart play, considering his importance to the lineup.

Advanced stats, however, didn’t paint a pretty picture of Judge in center field. His play was worth minus-6 OAA, the No. 40 mark and the second worst among qualified center fielders, ahead of only Heliot Ramos of the San Francisco Giants.

Judge will play most of next season at 33 years old. How many more years could he handle center field in deference to Soto in right field? How long until he maybe asks for offseason tips at first base or spends more time at designated hitter?

Soto isn’t a great base runner

When Soto is hitting a career-high 41 home runs — as he did in 2024 — his ability to run the bases becomes an afterthought. But the Yankees were the game’s worst team on the bases, earning the lowest marks on FanGraphs’ base running runs above average statistic. Every little bit helps.

Soto didn’t help a lot. He was the Yankees’ seventh-best base runner, accounting for minus-2 runner runs, according to Baseball Savant. That was tied with the lead-footed Anthony Rizzo.

A deal breaker? Of course not. But to steal a phrase from manager Aaron Boone, it’s baked into the cake.

The payroll plans

Nobody (except for maybe Scott Boras) knows exactly how much money it might take to sign Soto. But it’s going to eat a sizable amount of payroll for the sweepstakes’ lucky winner. Fortunately for the Yankees, the team that makes the most money in the sport, that should be less of a problem than anybody else.

Last season, Soto made a single-season arbitration record $31 million. That accounted for 9.8 percent of the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll, which was at $314.8 million, according to Cot’s Contracts. For comparison, Judge’s $40 million took up 12.7 percent of the payroll and Gerrit Cole’s $36 million accounted for 11.4 percent.

Last week, owner Hal Steinbrenner spoke at the MLB owners’ meetings in Manhattan, and though he didn’t mention any specific budget he had set for general manager Brian Cashman, he called that type of payroll year after year “not sustainable.” So, it might be prudent to expect some kind of general cost-cutting from the Yankees.

If the Yankees sign Soto, where might they try to reduce spending with such a top-heavy payroll? They have questions at third base, second base, first base and left field, along with the starting rotation and bullpen. Would a prospect such as Caleb Durbin end up the presumptive starter at second base? Would they consider platooning Oswaldo Cabrera and Ben Rice at first base? Would Jasson Domínguez receive the full-time job in left field?

Simply put, nobody is saying the Yankees shouldn’t sign Soto. Maybe Steinbrenner should let Soto write whatever number he wants on the check, only for Steinbrenner to sign it immediately and hand it back to him.

And while there would be more questions and concerns about the Yankees if they don’t sign Soto compared to if they do, worries would still exist.

So, actually, please put down that rotten tomato.

(Photo: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)