Bitcoin and the Fight to Overcome $100,000: What Prevents Its Continued Growth?

(BTC-USD) faced resistance last week, failing to break the $100,000 threshold. Analytics highlights reduced buyer interest and an imbalance in supply-demand dynamics, suggesting sharp price movements ahead. Liquidity studies reveal weakened demand, signaling potential corrections.

Latest Market Data

Bitcoin’s dominance dropped slightly, shifting funds toward altcoins, which aligns with the onset of an “altcoin season.” Despite this, analysts forecast Bitcoin fluctuations between $95,000 and $99,000 in the short term, with long-term growth supported by institutional interest in ETFs and the upcoming Bitcoin halving.

Market data points to a supply-demand imbalance, where buyers have unexpectedly reduced their interest in buying Bitcoin. The brokerage company FalconX attributes it to liquidity analysis, comparing buy and sell orders across trading platforms.

“As we near $100k, the skew approaches levels seen only three times since 2022. While this doesn’t threaten the medium-term rally, it suggests that the struggle to break above the $100k level could be intense,” FalconX noted in their latest report.

Recent data also indicates a decrease in Bitcoin’s dominance relative to other cryptocurrencies. According to CoinMarketCap, dominance dropped from 60.1% on November 21 to 59.7% on November 25, indicating an outflow of funds from Bitcoin to alternative cryptocurrencies, confirming the need for a price correction.

The Bitcoin Dominance Index, measuring Bitcoin’s market share relative to the entire cryptocurrency market, fluctuates due to factors like Bitcoin price changes, altcoin valuations, stablecoin growth, and new cryptocurrency emergence. A decline in the index often signals an “altcoin season,” where altcoins outperform Bitcoin, while an increase typically marks the end of such trends.

In the classic understanding of the Bitcoin Dominance Index, its decline is regarded by traders, investors, and analysts as the beginning of the “altcoin season,” that is, when tokens and coins other than Bitcoin show growth relative to the main cryptocurrency. And vice versa, the growth of the index is regarded as the end of the growth of the altcoin market relative to Bitcoin.

Moderately Positive Expectations

Market data highlights challenges to Bitcoin’s price growth but also indicates positive expectations for its trajectory. The correction is unlikely to be long. Greed is growing in the market, which means there is a possibility that at the moment of the cryptocurrency decline, investors waiting for the opportunity to run on the last car will take advantage of the drawdown.

Market data suggests that Bitcoin will likely fluctuate from $95,000 to $99,000 with attempts to break this resistance level. Short-term forecasts rely on U.S. macroeconomic indicators, while long-term projections remain bullish. Federal Reserve policies, particularly regarding interest rates, are seen as a factor limiting Bitcoin’s immediate growth. Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman, emphasized caution in rate.

The Federal Reserve System (FRS) base rate is a lending rate used by banks to provide each other with short-term loans. It is also a conditional basis for subsequent lending to individuals and businesses. A low rate implies that loans are becoming more accessible to market participants, which facilitates access to capital, which is used, among other things, for business development, and, as a result, for job creation. A high rate suggests that access to capital is becoming more difficult and expensive. This slows down the inflow of new money, reducing activity in the economy. Such a policy is aimed at reducing the rate of inflation.

In the current climate, consolidating above $100,000 seems unlikely without additional catalysts. However, the possibility of a strong Santa Claus rally pushing Bitcoin beyond $100,000 remains plausible. Long-term growth is supported by institutional interest in Bitcoin ETFs and the halving event, which could create a cryptocurrency supply shortage.