How ‘All in the Family’ Explains Biden’s Strength Among Seniors

It’s usually a given that Republicans will win voters 65 and over, but that’s not the case in this election. Instead, polls show President Biden close or even ahead among seniors, continuing a steady — and overlooked — trend of Democratic gains among older voters.

Mr. Biden’s strength among seniors might be surprising, but the likeliest explanation is deceptively simple: At every stage earlier in their lives, many of today’s seniors voted Democratic. They just got older.

To understand why, consider Archie Bunker, the working-class “lovable bigot” from the 1970s hit sitcom “All in the Family,” and his TV family.

Archie arguing with his son-in-law, Michael, whom he called “meathead.” He may be saying something we can’t print.

CBS, via Getty Images

The show revolved around Archie’s feuds with his 20-something feminist daughter, Gloria, and his liberal son-in-law, Michael, over race, gender and politics. (The existence of a 30-minute-long YouTube video called “Racist Archie Bunker Compilation” — which has nearly two million views — tells you most of what you need to know about the show and his character.)

It’s not unreasonable if Archie is your image of an older voter. As recently as 15 years ago, every single voter over age 65 was born before the end of World War II and came of age before the cultural revolution of the 1960s that shaped the views of many baby boomers voters for a lifetime.

Archie’s generation was the only one that reacted to the 2008 nomination of Barack Obama by shifting right: A higher share of them voted for John McCain in 2008 than for George W. Bush in 2004.

But in 2024, Archie shouldn’t be your image of a senior. Archie would be 100 years old today; his generation, called the Greatest Generation, has almost entirely died. The generation that came after Archie’s — the conservative Silent Generation, who grew up during the popular Eisenhower presidency in the “Leave It to Beaver” 1950s — has mostly died, too. Just 20 percent of the Silent Generation is alive today.

Instead, you may be better off thinking of Michael and Gloria. They are boomers, and they would be in their 70s today.

Archie and Edith’s chairs are empty. Michael (Rob Reiner) and Gloria (Sally Struthers) grew up.

Mario Anzuoni/Reuters

As a result, today’s seniors bear little resemblance to those from 10 or 15 years ago. Today, Madonna is a senior. So are Ellen DeGeneres and Katie Couric. By Election Day, Magic Johnson will be 65. ​​These baby boomers may not feel like older voters to you, but they should start replacing Archie Bunker in your mental picture of a senior citizen.

All together, boomers will make up more than 70 percent of seniors in 2024, up from zero percent when Mr. Obama — himself a baby boomer — won the presidency in 2008.

Boomers have a reputation for being conservative, but they’re more liberal than the voters older than them. The aging of the boomers, along with the dwindling ranks of those even older than the boomers, helps explain the steady Democratic gains among seniors over the last decade.

In 2012, Republican strength among seniors was at its peak: Mr. Romney won seniors by nearly 10 percentage points. But in all likelihood, Mr. Obama won the voters who are seniors today.

Voters aged 53 to 64 in 2012 — those 65 to 76 today — backed Mr. Obama by three points, based on a large compilation of survey data. As a group, they would have canceled much of Mr. Romney’s lead among those 65 and over.

At the same time, millions more conservative voters from older generations have died. Those who remain are disproportionately women and college graduates, and may be somewhat less Republican.

Consider the character Mary Richards, from “The Mary Tyler Moore Show.”

She made it, after all. She had spunk.

Bettmann/Getty Images

The fictional Mary was born in 1940 and represented the new possibilities for women at work and in society. Mary, who went on to get a master’s degree, would be 84 today and might be expected to be a Democratic voter. Many men of her generation, especially those without college degrees, didn’t make it to that age: Just 21 percent of 84-year-olds in 2022 were white men without degrees, according to census data.

American women live almost six years longer than men on average, and college graduates live about eight years longer than those without a degree.

Of course, just because Mr. Obama most likely won today’s seniors doesn’t mean President Biden will do so. But in the last presidential election, Mr. Biden won 48 percent of seniors, a tally almost identical to our estimate of how Mr. Obama probably fared among the same voters. The simplest explanation is that compositional change, rather than a change in attitudes, has been driving Democratic gains.

Over the last four years, the last cohort of relatively Democratic boomers became seniors (the youngest boomers are politically more like Gen X and haven’t hit 65 yet). It’s entirely possible that Mr. Biden won today’s seniors in 2020. If so, Mr. Biden may not need to flip a single voter to turn seniors from red to blue in 2024.

Generation X and Beyond

The aging of the boomers into the 65-and-older category has had the effect of making the 45-to-64 group more conservative. That’s because the relatively conservative Gen X now makes up the preponderance of those 45 to 64.

Much as the boomers have long been more liberal than the Silent Generation, Gen X has long been more conservative than the boomers. Gen X-ers came up in the midst of the Reagan revolution and were reflected in the hit show “Family Ties.”

Reading the president’s lips.

NBC, via Getty Images

Alex P. Keaton, a Reagan-loving teenager with his mind set on great wealth, clashed with his boomer parents, former hippies who had protested the Vietnam War and joined the Peace Corps.

Mr. Romney won voters who were ages 41 to 52 back in 2012, and who now make up many of the 45-to-64 group today (Alex Keaton would be 59 today). For good measure, polls suggest they have shifted to the right over the last decade.

In fact, the polls suggest almost every age group under age 50 has shifted to the right since 2012. Donald J. Trump, for instance, undoubtedly did much better in 2020 among the voters who were 18 to 29 in 2012 than Mr. Romney did among the same cohort. Voter registration data shows the same pattern.

Perhaps surprisingly, Democratic losses among younger voters over the last decade have canceled out the departure of the Archie Bunkers from the electorate, which is one reason the coming presidential election appears to be so close this year.