A true bull market — it’s not the U.S.

by Pelican Press
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A true bull market — it’s not the U.S.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on October 04, 2023 in New York City. 

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

What you need to know today

S&P’s record No. 37The S&P 500 closed above 5,600 for the first time ahead of Thursday’s inflation data, which could provide evidence for an interest rate cut. The index rose for the seventh straight day, registering its 37th record close this year. The Nasdaq Composite also hit an all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 258 points. Chip stocks were among the winners, with Advanced Micro Devices rising almost 4% after agreeing to buy Silo AI. Industry leader Nvidia jumped and Apple clocked its seventh consecutive record high. The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped, while U.S. oil prices rose as OPEC forecasts strong demand. You can read more on what to expect from the inflation report here.

Archegos Hwang guiltyArchegos Capital Management founder Bill Hwang was convicted of fraud and other charges by a Manhattan jury. Prosecutors accused Hwang and his deputy, Patrick Halligan, of lying to banks to secure billions of dollars that were used to inflate stock prices. Archegos collapsed in 2021. Both pleaded not guilty to multiple charges. They face up to 20 years in prison for each conviction. 

Google ‘ditches deal’HubSpot‘s shares plummeted 12% following a Bloomberg report stating Alphabet will not acquire the software company. The news comes amid increased regulatory scrutiny of proposed large tech acquisitions, including those by Amazon and Microsoft. The acquisition of HubSpot, which specializes in marketing automation software for small- and medium-sized businesses, would have bolstered Google’s business software revenue and diversified Alphabet’s portfolio.

Tesla meme stockBill Gross, renowned investor and co-founder of Pimco, believes Elon Musk’s Tesla is behaving like a speculative play among retail investors. “Tesla acting like a meme stock — sagging fundamentals, straight up price action,” the former chief investment officer and co-founder of Pimco said in a post on X Tuesday afternoon. “But then there seems to be a new meme stock every other day now. Most are pump and dump.” Tesla has risen for 11 days straight and is up 44% since June 24. 

Japan’s Nikkei hits new highJapan’s Nikkei 225 broke through the 42,000 mark for the first time amid a rally in markets in the Asia-Pacific region. The more-broader Topix rose 0.78%. The Taiwan Weighted Index also hit a record high, led by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp after it reported a strong growth in second-quarter revenue. South Korea’s Kospi rose as the central bank held interest rates. Governor Rhee Chang-yong reportedly said it was time to prepare for rate cuts. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was within touching distance of a new all-time high, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index jumped 1.5% and mainland China’s CSI 300 rose almost 1%.

[PRO] Global AI stocksAI-related stocks have fueled half the gains in the MSCI All Country World Index, despite representing only 14% of its market cap. Citi analysts have identified undervalued global AI stocks with untapped potential due to improved earnings forecasts but stagnant valuations. 

The bottom line

The S&P 500 notched its 37th record high. That may sound impressive, but the market is grinding higher on the backs of a handful of megacaps. However, there is another market that is in the midst of a broad-based bull run — clocking up record highs in 17 out of 27 sessions in June.

India’s benchmark NSE Nifty 50 is up almost 12% this year. Not to be outdone, India’s S&P BSE Sensex has soared nearly 11% so far this year.

India is completely a unique case on its own,” Ruchir Sharma, chairman of Rockefeller International, told CNBC. “It’s the most expensive market in the world today. It’s the one country that’s having a true bull market, even compared to the U.S. The breadth of the Indian bull market is what you typically see in bull markets—everything is rising there, from the mid to small caps, they’re doing better than the large caps.”

The Indian election appears to be nothing more than a blip on the radar — continuity under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the prospect of economic growth have supercharged the market. Although, Modi’s recent visit to Moscow has raised concerns in Western capitals as they attempt to shore up an alliance against Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“I would not say geopolitics is a major risk for investors in emerging markets,” Sharma said. “In fact, if anything, I think we will look back in history at the time the U.S. has imposed sanctions on Russia in an unprecedented way by weaponizing the dollar, that has set in motion where countries are trying to find their own alliances and trying to reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar.”

“That’s why the price of gold is doing so well, with central banks around the world buying gold in record numbers. I think emerging markets outside of India are extremely cheap.”

Back on Wall Street, the S&P climbed above 5,600 for the first time — with Nvidia, Apple and Tesla among the mega-caps continuing their inexorable rise. It’s got many investors wondering if other stocks will make a comeback.

“Is mean reversion dormant or is it dead?” Sharma asked. “If mean reversion is dead, this is going to be a pretty boring market where the same few stocks keep piling on, keep doing well in a way that has never happened before.”

— CNBC’s Jeff Cox, Brian Evans, Samantha Subin, Yun Li, Arjun Kharpal, Alex Harring, Spencer Kimball, Jesse Pound and Lim Hui Jie contributed to this report.

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