Are Lions Super Bowl favorites? Or are they still a move away? Sando’s Pick Six

The Detroit Lions cannot necessarily claim to be the NFL’s best team with the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs riding a 13-game winning streak. But after another important victory, this one by a 24-14 margin over the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field, there is a conversation to be had, at least.

The question is, have the Lions done enough to maximize their championship chances after losing elite pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson to a likely season-ending leg injury last month? They planned to acquire 32-year-old pass rusher Za’Darius Smith from the Cleveland Browns, according to a Pro Football Talk report, and they still could do more before the trade deadline passes Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET.

The Pick Six column leads with a look at the Lions as they head into the trade deadline with a 7-1 record, best in the NFC, with road victories over Minnesota and Green Bay already. The full menu:

• Whether Lions have done enough
• Peyton, Brady and … Lamar?
• Kirk Cousins and the Raiders
• Carr, Wilson and Daniel Jones
• Busting Browns’ offense myths
• 2-minute drill: Chiefs prediction

1. If Za’Darius Smith is the big acquisition for Detroit at the deadline, have the Lions done enough?

The Lions aren’t alone among NFC North contenders dealing with a significant injury. The Vikings, already playing without projected starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy, lost left tackle Christian Darrisaw and moved to acquire Cam Robinson from Jacksonville to replace him. The Packers are facing uncertainty at quarterback while a groin injury hinders Jordan Love.

Everyone has issues in November, but no other top contender this season has lost a player of Hutchinson’s caliber at a premium position. Looking back over the past couple of decades, only a couple of comparable situations stood out where a potential contender lost an elite pass rusher before the deadline:

• The 2011 Houston Texans lost Mario Williams, who had five sacks in the first five games before landing on injured reserve. They had a rookie named J.J. Watt on the roster and rode out the season, finishing 10-6 and losing in the divisional round.

• The 2020 Arizona Cardinals lost Chandler Jones, who was coming off a 19-sack season in 2019 but had only one sack through five games of 2020. They were 5-2 at the deadline and acquired Markus Golden, who had three sacks for the Cardinals that season and 11 in the next. That team finished 8-8 and missed the playoffs.

• Also that season, the San Francisco 49ers lost Nick Bosa to a season-ending injury in the second game. They also lost quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo right before the deadline, so they did not make a major move, instead acquiring Jordan Willis for a late-round pick swap.

The Lions are better than any of those teams with or without Hutchinson. They have more at stake as the deadline nears.

Their potential options fit into categories.

Pipe dream/clickbait headliners:

Maxx Crosby, Las Vegas Raiders
Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns
Trey Hendrickson, Cincinnati Bengals

Older vets likely to be available:

Za’Darius Smith, Browns
Jadeveon Clowney, Carolina Panthers
Preston Smith, Packers (tricky within the division)

Younger players in the final year of their deals:
Baron Browning, Denver Broncos
Azeez Olujari, New York Giants

Two players went off the market before the regular season began: Matt Judon, acquired by Atlanta from New England for a third-round pick; and Darrell Taylor, acquired by Chicago from Seattle for a sixth-rounder. The Patriots dealt Joshua Uche to the Chiefs last week.

It’s fun to dream up deals like Detroit sending multiple first-round picks with, say, backup quarterback Hendon Hooker to the Raiders for Crosby, but those deals are rarely the ones that materialize during the season. There still is precedent for upgrading with a pass rusher at the deadline.

Lions general manager Brad Holmes was with the Los Angeles Rams when their 2018 acquisition of pass rusher Dante Fowler helped L.A. reach the Super Bowl. Holmes had left the Rams for the Lions when Los Angeles landed Von Miller from the Denver Broncos at the 2021 deadline for second- and third-round picks. Miller had nine sacks with the Rams, including four in their playoff run to a Super Bowl victory.

Where would Smith land on the above list of notable in-season pass-rush additions made by contenders over the past couple of decades?

“I’d rather have him than almost all of the above,” said an evaluator who studied Smith’s performance in 2023 but has not watched him as closely this season. “Good player, fits a need and has a contract for 2025 already.”

Hutchinson was one of a kind. His pressure rate in five games this season was 25 percent, the highest for an outside pass rusher in a single season since at least 2019 (minimum 150 pass-rush snaps), according to Pro Football Focus, via TruMedia.

Smith’s pressure rate was 16.5 percent last season, which ranked 18th, between T.J. Watt and Chris Jones (his five sacks could not compare to the combined 29.5 for Watt and Jones). Smith’s 13.9 percent pressure rate and five sacks this season have come for a team that has led on only 19.7 percent of plays, the fourth-lowest rate. Detroit has led on nearly 65 percent of plays, second only to the Vikings, so the rushing situations will be more favorable in Detroit.

“Great pickup,” a veteran offensive coach said of Smith. “You might only need him to play 20 snaps a game.”

Detroit, with the NFL’s second-youngest snap-weighted defense behind that of the New York Giants, ranks seventh in defensive EPA per play this season, up from 24th in 2023.

“(Offensive coordinator) Ben Johnson gets all the run there, but how’s (defensive coordinator) Aaron Glenn doing, D-ing up Green Bay like that after losing his safety (Brian Branch) to an ejection?” an AFC coach said.

Imagine how good that defense would be today if Aaron Glenn could actually see pic.twitter.com/VznNU3jVhP

— trey wingo (@wingoz) November 3, 2024

The Packers outgained Detroit 411-216 but struggled on third down (including four dropped passes), got stuffed on fourth-and-1 and suffered a pick six right before halftime, a primary reason Green Bay finished with -3.3 EPA on offense.

Big defensive games against Arizona, Dallas and Tennessee account for much of the Lions’ No. 7 ranking on defense. There isn’t a high-powered offense on the Lions’ schedule until Green Bay in Week 14, Buffalo in Week 15 and possibly San Francisco in Week 17.

Once the trade for Smith — or any other pass rusher — goes through, unleashing the new addition in the playoffs will be the priority.

BetMGM still has the Chiefs as the Super Bowl favorites at +425, with the Lions second at +500, followed by the Baltimore Ravens (+600), Buffalo Bills (+800) and 49ers (+1000).

“Detroit has more talent than K.C., good coaching and is tougher,” an exec from another playoff-caliber team said, adding that if he were allowed to bet on any team to win it all this season, his money would be on the Lions.

To that point about toughness, which Kansas City is not lacking in the least, a defensive coach made an observation after watching portions of the Lions’ victory over the Packers.

“Have we transformed to where Green Bay with its well-manicured coach looks like they should be in a dome while tough, red-faced Dan Campbell looks like he should be the one on the frozen tundra?” this coach said. “Because the ‘rug’ team (Lions with an indoor stadium sporting artificial turf) was the one securely handling the ball in the cold rain with 15 mph wind.”

That’s just the way we’re built! pic.twitter.com/SA6XcLIc5G

— Detroit Lions (@Lions) November 4, 2024

The Packers have done such a good job drafting and developing, most notably at the receiver position, that analysts rarely even mention them as a candidate to make a move at the deadline. Green Bay perpetually owns the NFL’s youngest roster, or close to it. The Packers also did not lose Hutchinson. The Lions did.

Led by Holmes and Campbell, Detroit has built patiently for five years, trusting its ability to develop homegrown talent while taking steps each season. Now top contenders, and with the NFL’s third-oldest offensive team on a snap-weighted basis, the urgency is building. The Lions time to strike could be right now.

2. What do Lamar Jackson’s Ravens have in common with Tom Brady’s Patriots and Peyton Manning’s Colts? Here’s what.

The Broncos entered Week 9 ranked first in defensive EPA per play, partly because of a favorable schedule, but also because they dominated the one high-powered offense they faced when beating a then-healthy Tampa Bay, 27-6, in Week 3.

The Ravens entered Week 9 with Jackson playing through soreness that caused him to miss multiple practices during the week.

Baltimore 41, Denver 10?

With a whopping 20.1 offensive EPA against Denver, the Ravens joined the 2007 New England Patriots and 2004 Indianapolis Colts, two of the great offenses in NFL history, on an exclusive list. Those are the only teams since 2000 to meet or exceed 13 offensive EPA in at least six of nine games to start a season, per TruMedia. Those Brady-quarterbacked Patriots did it seven times. The Manning-quarterbacked Colts did it six times, same as these Jackson-quarterbacked Ravens.

The Ravens now own two of the four best nine-game starts for offensive EPA per game since Jackson became the full-time starter in 2019.

The way this season is playing out, Jackson could emerge with his third league MVP award, while teammate Derrick Henry could be the choice as Offensive Player of the Year.

Jackson leads the NFL in EPA per pass play, passer rating, yards per attempt, pass completions longer than 15 yards and percentage of passes producing first downs. Henry leads the league in yards rushing, rushing touchdowns, scrimmage yards and rushes gaining at least 12 yards.

Jackson completed 16 of 19 passes for 280 yards with three touchdowns and a maximum 158.3 passer rating against Denver. Per Pro Football Reference, this was his sixth career game with as many or more touchdown passes than incompletions in games when he attempted at least 15 passes. Only Manning (seven times, averaging 25.7 attempts per game) and Drew Brees (six times on 27.8 average attempts) have as many of these games as Jackson, who has averaged 19.8 attempts in such games. Eight of Jackson’s 19 passes against Denver produced gains longer than 15 yards. No quarterback since at least 2000 has had more gains of 15-plus yards on fewer attempts.

There is one concern.

Jackson had only 4 yards rushing against the Broncos, his second-lowest total in 92 combined regular-season and playoff starts. That was a reflection of his leg injuries, which are the biggest concern, by far, for Jackson and the Ravens sustaining the success they’ve enjoyed to this point in the season.

The Cleveland Browns hit Jackson frequently and hit him hard last week, including in the legs. Jackson has games against the Bengals, Steelers, Chargers and Eagles before Baltimore’s Week 14 bye. The Ravens finish against the Giants, Steelers and Texans before a Week 18 rematch against the Browns.

It’s a schedule peppered with difficult defenses, which could put Jackson’s durability to the test.

3. The Raiders turned to former Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder out of desperation Sunday. Which brings us to the value of Kirk Cousins and real starting quarterbacks in general.

The Raiders were one of the teams that could have pushed for Cousins in free agency but instead invested in a less-expensive alternative. The Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers proceeded similarly without using a high 2024 draft choice for a potential franchise quarterback. Throw in Cousins’ former team, Minnesota, and his current team, Atlanta, and it’s interesting to see how much better (or worse) those teams’ offenses rank in EPA per play.

The Falcons have made the biggest jump, from No. 26 last season to No. 7 through Week 9 this season. The Steelers have made a big jump for much less money, while the Vikings are about where they were last season, when Cousins started eight games before suffering a season-ending injury (the Vikings ranked 11th in offensive EPA per play through eight games last season).

This is not to suggest Cousins could have improved every team as much as he has improved the Falcons. At his age, with his injury history, playing indoors for a team with solid weaponry surely helps his production.

As for the Raiders, who fired offensive coordinator Luke Getsy and two other assistant coaches late Sunday, I’m not sure what the record is for the number of times a quarterback has been benched in the first nine games of a season, but Gardner Minshew must rank up there, at least in recent times, after suffering his third in-game demotion of the season during a 41-24 defeat at Cincinnati. The Raiders signed him to a two-year, $25 million contract in free agency.

Ridder completed 11 of 16 passes for 74 yards and a touchdown in relief, which was good for him. But for a big-picture look at what signing a real starting-caliber professional quarterback can do for an offense, consider this wild stat:

• The Falcons are already 93 percent of the way toward their 2023 full-season total for yardage when targeting wide receivers. They have 1,535 yards passing to wide receivers through Week 9 after having 1,650 all last season, when Ridder started 13 games for them.

The Raiders have traded receiver Davante Adams, who became disgruntled in their offense, and will be looking for a quarterback in the offseason.

4. Derek Carr, Russell Wilson and … Daniel Jones? How long will the Giants wait?

With the Giants falling to 2-7 after a Daniel Jones lost fumble created the biggest single-play EPA swing of this 27-22 defeat to Washington, coach Brian Daboll predictably faced more questions about his quarterback’s viability.

“The words ‘Daniel Jones’ and ‘injury guarantee’ are going to come up so much this year,” a 2024 Quarterback Tiers voter predicted before the season.

We are getting closer to that point with every Giants defeat because Jones’ contract carries $23 million in injury guarantees for next season. That’s money the team could avoid paying by releasing Jones after the season, unless Jones were to suffer a serious injury during the second half of this season. In that case, the team could become liable for all or part of that money ($12 million of it becomes fully guaranteed at the start of the 2025 league year, which is March 12).

These sorts of considerations have, from all appearances, led other teams to bench high-priced, low-producing starters in recent seasons, from Derek Carr in Las Vegas to Russell Wilson in Denver. Those teams waited until Week 17 before benching their starters.

Would the Giants turn to backups Drew Lock and/or Tommy DeVito earlier than that? The intensity of the New York-area media market differentiates that situation from others. Jones also has much less career production than Wilson or even Carr had previously. He has also suffered serious injuries more frequently, including last season.

Via NFL research, #Giants QB Daniel Jones is the first QB since 1991 to have 0 or fewer pass yards and 1+ pass TD in the 1st half of a game with 5+ pass attempts.

— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) November 3, 2024

Reporters covering the Giants pressed for clues Sunday.

Did the Giants run the ball so much early in Week 9 because Daboll feared putting the ball in Jones’ hands? A variation of the question arose at Daboll’s postgame news conference after the Giants passed only six times in 22 chances on early downs in the first 28 minutes against Washington. The 27.3 pass rate in those generally neutral situations was the lowest for the Giants in 45 total games since Daboll became coach.

“We felt comfortable, that was the plan coming into the game was we wanted to run the ball, control the line of scrimmage. Has nothing to do with Daniel throwing it or not throwing it.”

Brian Daboll was asked again about the Giants’ run-heavy gameplan in the first half: pic.twitter.com/7U97L8WU68

— Giants Videos (@SNYGiants) November 3, 2024

One of those six early pass plays doomed Jones’ statistical line Sunday. It also might have doomed the Giants to their defeat. And it will lead to continued speculation about Jones’ viability.

The Giants had first-and-10 from the Washington 29-yard line in the first quarter. Jones took a sack and fumbled. The Commanders took over at the Giants’ 31 and soon scored the game’s first touchdown. This single play cost the Giants 8.1 EPA, the biggest swing on any single sack in Week 9. (If the officials had not blown the play dead, the fumble would have been returned for a TD, making the EPA swing larger.)

One factor working in Jones’ favor: He is getting the ball to rookie receiver Malik Nabers, whose nearly 29 percent team target share ranks third in the league behind Justin Jefferson and Garrett Wilson.

5. Poor offensive production is more palatable without Deshaun Watson in the lineup, but let’s bust a myth about this Cleveland Browns offense: Joe Flacco was not cooking in Cleveland.

The one-week bump the Browns’ offense got with Jameis Winston replacing Watson in the lineup last week became just that, a one-week bump.

Winston and the Browns’ offense struggled terribly in a 27-10 home defeat to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 9.

Now seems like a good time to remind ourselves that Cleveland’s offense has been consistently poor from a statistical standpoint since the Jacoby Brissett glory days of early 2022. That includes the feel-good six-start run with Flacco in the lineup late last season — for which he won Comeback Player of the Year — when the Browns finished with -10.6 offensive EPA on a per-game average, right in line with the -10.4 average across Watson’s 19 starts.

The chart below shows the game-by-game breakdown across 2022-24 when Brissett, Watson, Flacco and Winston started. I’ve excluded six starts with P.J. Walker, Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Jeff Driskel for clarity and because they were merely spot starters.

One bad game with Winston does not make a trend. The Chargers entered Week 9 ranked second in defensive EPA per play, having handed the Chiefs their worst statistical game on offense this season.

Perhaps this will become a one-off rough game for Winston and the Browns. But the overall trend is clear and problematic for Cleveland, whether or not Watson is in the lineup.

6. Two-minute drill: Predicting a 31-17 Chiefs victory, which would extend one streak while breaking another

The Chiefs’ 13-game winning streak is the longest in NFL history without exceeding 28 points scored at any point during the streak. The other teams with more than 10 of these lower-scoring victories in a row played in the late 1920s, when passing was so new that rules required quarterbacks to remain at least five yards behind the line of scrimmage when throwing.

While the Chiefs’ offense has not adhered to that long-lost rule, Kansas City does rank last in average air yards, with each pass traveling only 5.8 yards past the line of scrimmage before reaching its target. That’s 1.9 yards below the league average and reflective of an offense that is highly efficient but not striking fear into opponents with its vertical orientation.

Monday night’s matchup at home against Tampa Bay puts the Chiefs in prime position to not only extend their winning streak to 14 games, but also to finally top 28 points in the process, and hit some deep passes as well.

A Bucs defense that held the Commanders, Lions and Eagles to a combined 50 points on offense early in the season no longer seems to exist.

The Buccaneers have allowed 108 points in three recent games against Atlanta, Baltimore and Atlanta again. From Weeks 5-8, Tampa Bay allowed four touchdown passes on throws traveling more than 15 yards past the line of scrimmage, after allowing zero over the season’s first four weeks, per TruMedia.

What happened to the Bucs’ defense? Coaches from other teams pointed out a few things. Cornerback Jamel Dean is out, linebacker Lavonte David isn’t as formidable as he once was and there isn’t an elite pass rusher. That creates more reliance on blitzes that, when disguised, take shape from far enough away for quick-processing quarterbacks to decipher them in time. That helps explain how the Falcons’ Kirk Cousins passed for 785 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception in two games against the Bucs.

“It sets up really well for Kansas City because the quarterback (Patrick Mahomes) will get the ball out, and Tampa Bay plays a lot of zone, so those receivers do not have to get open against man,” one coach said. “And then Tampa won’t score 20 points against Kansas City because their wideouts are injured. They can run the ball well, but not well enough against Kansas City’s front.”

It all points to a 31-17 type of Chiefs victory, unless the Buccaneers can find a way to flip the script.

• Super holdovers: Eleven current Bucs and 13 current Chiefs remain from the Super Bowl between the teams following the 2020 season.

Tampa’s list includes Tristan Wirfs, Lavonte David, Jordan Whitehead, Anthony Nelson, Chris Godwin, Jamel Dean, Vita Vea, Mike Evans, Antoine Winfield Jr., William Gholston and Zach Triner.

Kansas City’s list includes Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, Tershawn Wharton, Mike Danna, Mike Pennel, Derrick Nnadi, Mecole Hardman, Harrison Butker, James Winchester, Joseph Fortson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Lucas Niang.

(Whitehead, Pennel, Hardman and Fortson each signed deals with other teams before returning.)

• Texans’ takeaways: The Houston Texans’ decision to kick a field goal on third-and-goal from the New York Jets’ 11-yard line while trailing 21-10 with 42 seconds left Thursday night seemed curious on the surface.

Going for a touchdown in that situation makes the most sense for any team trying to erase an 11-point deficit with some combination of a touchdown, onside-kick recovery and field goal.

It’s a desperate situation and a largely futile one regardless.

“It’s so hard to win those,” a veteran coach said. “You are in the North Atlantic, two miles under the surface in the Titanic, and by kicking on third down, you made the error of turning the escape hatch clockwise instead of counter-clockwise. You’re doomed either way, really.”

Since 2000, teams are 0-25 when trailing by 9-11 points with 1:00 to 0:20 remaining and facing third-and-10 or longer from inside the opponent’s 30-yard line, per TruMedia. The Texans were the fourth team to try a field goal in those situations. Three of the other 21 scored touchdowns on their third-down plays, but no team scored more than once.

The Texans’ inability to protect quarterback C.J. Stroud, who took eight sacks in the game, surely factored into the risk-reward equation. Houston did try an onside kick after making the field goal try.

At worst, this looked like a game Stroud and the Texans were increasingly eager to get behind them.

• The Indianapolis Colts had less time on the fourth-quarter game clock (33 seconds) than Houston had when Indy made a 54-yard field goal on first-and-10 from the Minnesota 36 while trailing by 11 Sunday night. The Colts’ onside try failed and they lost, 21-13.

Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson — benched after making headlines for taking a break against Houston last week because, in his words, he was tired — could not catch a break during the broadcast Sunday night. He happened to be yawning when cameras showed him on the sideline. The game itself reflected better on Richardson as the Colts set season lows in a range of statistical categories with Flacco in the lineup.

Tonight, the Colts offense had:
— 6 points, their lowest of the year
— 0 red zone drives, their lowest of the year
— 13 first downs, their lowest of the year
— 227 yards of offense, their lowest of the year
— -0.35 EPA/play, their lowest of the year

— Jim Ayello (@jimayello) November 4, 2024

• Arizona’s 29-9 domination of the Chicago Bears, complete with a 213-69 rushing advantage for the Cardinals, affirmed a few things.

Chicago is a sub-average team with victories over teams that were struggling at the time: Tennessee in the opener, the Rams in Week 4, the Panthers and Jaguars thereafter. The Bears have lost to three pretty good teams in Houston, Indianapolis and Arizona. They did nearly beat Washington, but that defeat was most damaging of all, for the way the Bears imploded in the end.

The Bears still have their entire NFC North schedule ahead of them, which seems like a bad thing, given the strength of the division.

The Cardinals have now won four of five, and they’ve beaten some pretty good teams: San Francisco and the Chargers, plus Miami with Tua Tagovailoa back in the lineup. They are a Week 10 home victory over the Jets from taking a 5-4 record into their bye and have already matched their win total from last season. They have made progress.

• For the first time this season, a team won after playing Detroit the previous week. That winning team was Tennessee, against New England in overtime, after the Patriots played for overtime by kicking the tying extra point with no time on the regulation clock.

• My read on the Seahawks following their 26-20 overtime loss to the Rams is that their defense looked much better, but their vision for playing offense might be incompatible with their situation at right tackle, where their top three options remain injured. That situation is likely the No. 1 reason Geno Smith appears to be in boom-and-bust mode, throwing the ball all over the field with mixed results (three touchdowns and three interceptions Sunday).

It’s possible starting right tackle Abraham Lucas will return following the bye. Whatever the case, does the youngest head coach in the NFL, the defensive-minded Mike Macdonald, have a clear vision for how his team will play offense? Is he letting his first-year offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb, play his own way?

Seattle was relatively balanced offensively in the early going Sunday, but the team still ranks second to Cincinnati on the Cook Index with its 61 percent pass rate on early downs in the first 28 minutes.

A Week 10 bye gives Macdonald time to assess such things.

• Saquon Barkley’s reverse hurdle for the Philadelphia Eagles in their 28-23 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars was one of those plays affirming just how different, how absolutely special, the best pro athletes tend to be. We can’t always tell how fast they are running, but a play such as this one makes clear to all that those white lines mark the boundaries for another planet.

THE 180 HURDLE??? DID SAQUON JUST INVENT THIS?!

📺: #JAXvsPHI on CBS/Paramount+
📱: pic.twitter.com/tYThjnbdgG

— NFL (@NFL) November 3, 2024

(Photo of Dan Campbell: Kevin Sabitus / Getty Images)