BCI ETF Technical Analysis: Weekly Breakout to $25.19 in Sight

Commodities may not always dominate the financial headlines, but when they move, they often do so with conviction. Right now, one broad-based commodity fund is beginning to stir after a prolonged slumber: the .

This ETF, which tracks the Bloomberg Commodity Index, has spent the better part of two years digesting its post-pandemic gains in a wide consolidation range. Now, however, the price action is tightening, momentum is building, and key technical levels are coming back into play. In short, BCI appears to be coiling for a breakout: one that could mark the start of its next major leg higher.

If the current setup plays out, this quiet compression phase may give way to a measured move toward $25.19, a price that would not only reclaim BCI’s 2022 highs but also signal a potential reacceleration in the broader commodity supercycle.

In the sections ahead, we’ll unpack why this breakout setup matters, what’s fueling the technical strength, and what levels to watch as this quiet chart begins to speak louder.

The Big Picture: A Pandemic Rally and Its Aftermath

To understand the current setup, it’s worth stepping back to examine the bigger picture. Following the pandemic-induced low of $10.90 in May 2020, BCI surged in lockstep with the global reflation trade, driven by stimulus-fueled demand, supply-chain bottlenecks, and rising energy prices. This powerful combination ignited a commodities rally that pushed the ETF to a cycle high of $24.78 by June 2022, marking a gain of more than 125% in just over two years.

However, like all strong moves, the rally eventually met resistance. As global growth began to slow, inflation pressures eased, and the U.S. dollar rebounded, BCI lost momentum. The initial pullback was sharp, reflecting a broad unwinding across risk assets, but it soon transitioned into a more gradual and controlled decline.

Importantly, while the retracement dipped below the 0.382 Fibonacci level, the 0.5 retracement zone ($17.53) remained firm and was never tested in a meaningful way. This distinction matters. A deep correction that violates major retracement levels often signals trend exhaustion, but that’s not what we saw here.

Instead, BCI’s decline looks more like a classic pause within a larger trend. When a market gives back gains in a shallow, orderly fashion, especially after a strong multi-year run, it often suggests consolidation rather than reversal. In other words, the pullback has relieved overbought conditions without compromising the long-term bullish structure.

Two-Year Range: Quiet Compression, Rising Tension

Since September 2022, BCI has been locked in a well-defined range, bounded by resistance at $21.77 and support at $18.20. At first glance, this extended sideways movement may appear to signal indecision. But a closer inspection reveals a more nuanced and bullish internal structure that has been quietly developing beneath the surface.

Beginning in September 2024, the tone shifted. BCI began carving out a series of higher lows, steadily lifting off the $18.20 base and grinding closer to the upper boundary at $21.77. This kind of ascending behavior within a horizontal range is rarely accidental. It’s a textbook sign of accumulation, where buyers gradually gain confidence and step in earlier with each successive dip. In essence, the market is tightening like a coiled spring, with rising demand persistently testing supply.

These higher lows send a clear message: bulls are growing more assertive, willing to engage at incrementally higher levels rather than waiting for deep pullbacks. When this pattern forms against flat resistance, it’s often the precursor to a breakout.

Adding to this constructive setup is the behavior around the 52-week simple moving average (SMA). Since November 2024, BCI has remained consistently above this key trend gauge, signaling that medium-term momentum has shifted back in favor of buyers. The moving average, which previously flattened out, is now starting to curl higher, reinforcing the idea that the underlying trend is resuming.

This confluence of rising price action and a supportive moving average paints a bullish backdrop. Historically, when price holds above a rising 52-week SMA, it indicates that the path of least resistance is higher, and short-term dips are more likely to be met with buying interest, not panic selling.

Taken together, these developments suggest that BCI isn’t just drifting sideways; it’s building pressure beneath the surface. A tightening range, climbing lows, and a bullish tilt in momentum all point to one thing: a breakout may be imminent.

Momentum Is Lining Up

If price structure is the skeleton of the chart, then momentum is its heartbeat, and right now, that heartbeat is quickening.

On the weekly timeframe, BCI’s momentum profile is beginning to tilt decisively in favor of the bulls. The MACD indicator is approaching a bullish crossover, with the MACD line curling upward toward its signal line, which is a classic sign that upside momentum is beginning to take hold. At the same time, the histogram is on the verge of flipping positive, signaling that the short-term momentum is not only improving but also gaining traction.

This momentum shift doesn’t exist in a vacuum. In prior instances, similar MACD crossovers during range-bound conditions have acted as early signals for meaningful breakouts. What makes this setup particularly compelling is that the momentum shift is coinciding with price pressing into a well-defined resistance level at $21.77. When a momentum indicator like the MACD aligns with a structural breakout attempt, it adds confirmation to the thesis and reduces the probability of a false move.

Simply put, if price clears $21.77 and the MACD crossover confirms, the odds of sustained follow-through increase substantially. It’s a classic one-two punch: structural pressure from buyers beneath resistance, paired with a tangible shift in underlying momentum.

Projecting the Measured Move

So, what happens if BCI finally breaks through that stubborn ceiling at $21.77?

This is where measured move theory gives us a roadmap. The logic is simple: when price escapes a prolonged range, the next leg often mirrors the height of the range itself. In BCI’s case, the distance between the range high ($21.77) and the range low ($18.20) is $3.57. Projecting that distance upward from the breakout zone gives us a target of approximately $25.19.

$25.19 is a strategically significant level for two key reasons. First, it eclipses the June 2022 high at $24.78, meaning the breakout could push into new multi-year territory. Second, it completes a full round-trip from the post-2022 correction. Reclaiming this level would effectively validate the idea that the past two years weren’t a topping pattern but rather a long digestion phase within a still-intact secular uptrend.

Now, to be clear, measured-move targets aren’t guarantees. Price doesn’t move in a straight line, and not all breakouts reach their projected destination. However, when a multi-year range resolves with momentum confirmation, as BCI appears to be setting up for, the first leg often travels with surprising precision toward that calculated target. It’s not destiny, but it’s far from random.

Macro Alignment

While the focus of this write-up is squarely on technical analysis, it’s important to recognize that macro fundamentals may soon begin aligning with the chart’s message, adding fuel to a potential breakout.

For one, interest rate cuts are increasingly back on the table across several major economies. As central banks shift from tightening to easing, the macro environment becomes more supportive of real assets and inflation hedges like commodities.

At the same time, commodity inventories remain tight in several key sectors, especially within energy and industrial metals. This structural tightness provides a potential tailwind for prices, particularly if demand rebounds or supply disruptions re-emerge.

Adding to that, the U.S. dollar has begun to soften modestly, which is a key development given that most commodities are priced in dollars. A weaker dollar eases headwinds for international buyers and tends to correlate with stronger commodity performance.

Finally, if cyclical pressures resurface, whether through inflation surprises, supply-side shocks, or global growth reacceleration, investors may once again rotate toward inflation-hedging assets. In that environment, broad commodity exposure becomes a compelling allocation.

Taken together, these macro elements form a supportive backdrop. If BCI breaks out, the move may not be purely technical; it could reflect a broader shift in capital flows toward commodities, confirming the idea that the next leg higher is fundamentally as well as technically justified.

Risk Levels to Watch

Of course, no technical setup is immune to failure. As compelling as the current structure looks, it’s essential to stay grounded and identify the levels that would invalidate the bullish thesis.

The first and most immediate line in the sand is $21.77. If BCI fails to close above this level on a weekly basis, the breakout remains unconfirmed. Price may flirt with resistance intraday or even intraweek, but without a decisive close, the move lacks conviction, and the range remains intact.

Should the ETF falter and slip back below $20.50, especially in conjunction with a bearish MACD rejection, the tone shifts further. That scenario would suggest a failed breakout attempt and increase the likelihood of another rotation lower, possibly toward the bottom of the range near $18.20.

If things deteriorate further and price breaks down below $18.20, the entire multi-year base structure would be considered broken. In that case, downside risk opens up toward the 0.500 Fibonacci retracement at $17.53, which served as a key buffer during the post-2022 pullback.

That said, we’re not there yet, and the chart doesn’t suggest imminent failure. Quite the opposite: the burden of proof is now shifting to the bears. As long as BCI continues to hold above its rising internal trendline and stays supported by the 52-week SMA, the technical roadmap continues to favor a bullish continuation rather than a breakdown.

Conclusion

For nearly two years, BCI has moved sideways, digesting the gains from a historic rally and offering little satisfaction to traders hungry for direction. But within that long stretch of frustration lies the kind of opportunity that only extended consolidations can produce. Ranges don’t last forever, and when they finally resolve, especially in the direction of the prevailing trend, the follow-through can be both sharp and sustained.

That’s exactly the kind of setup we’re seeing unfold right now. With rising lows tightening beneath resistance, price holding firmly above the 52-week SMA, and a MACD signal on the verge of flipping bullish, BCI is starting to look like a textbook case of coiled potential. The technical structure is clean, the breakout level is clear, and the upside target ($25.19) represents a structural milestone that would confirm the return of broad-based commodity strength.

For those tracking commodities, whether as a barometer of inflation expectations, real asset demand, or macro rotation, this chart deserves your attention. The breakout hasn’t happened yet, but everything beneath the surface is pointing in that direction.

When price, momentum, and structure align this cleanly, it’s usually not a question of if, but when.