Bitcoin is doing the thing it needs to do: Morning Brief
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Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is just a hop, skip, and jump from the $100,000 level as of this writing.
The most-held cryptocurrency has been surging since the US presidential election as the crypto community expects a more friendly regulatory regime with President-Elect Trump as “HODLer-in-chief.” That added to an already torrid rally this year, prompted by the introduction of spot bitcoin ETFs.
On the policy front, encouraging signs have been mounting: Coinbase (COIN) CEO Brian Armstrong reportedly met with Trump to discuss his picks for head of the Securities and Exchange Commission. And SEC boss Gary Gensler and FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg, seen as crypto foes by the industry, are stepping down around Inauguration Day.
What crypto insiders and lobbyists say they want are “clear rules” around crypto. That seems to boil down to regulators making buying bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies easier.
From the price action, it’s hard to see where anyone’s having trouble buying bitcoin. Its price has more than doubled this year, with a nearly 30% leap since the day after the election.
But investors point to rules that required firms that held crypto on their balance sheets on behalf of clients to record those custody holdings as liabilities, among other issues.
Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, bemoaned the regulatory frictions in an interview with Yahoo Finance: “Fear of litigation. You couldn’t get banked. You know, our audit at Galaxy cost three times what it would if we were a non-crypto company.”
He expects all that to change, with policy from the top down allowing it to be easier to invest in crypto. From Trump to Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick, “All the guys around the table like our space. They believe in the digital asset world. They believe in blockchains and bitcoin and so the whole energy of this administration is going to be so different than the Elizabeth Warren, Gary Gensler era,” Novogratz said.
And for prospective investors, bulls, and even governmental benefactors, it’s much easier to sell (and buy) the bitcoin story and get people onboard when the price is going up. As bitcoin’s history has shown, the best defense against complicated philosophical questions about what’s behind it — no promises, goods, or ownership as cash, gold, and stock provide — is a growing price.
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With markets serving as a natural discounting mechanism, bitcoin and other crypto prices have already risen in anticipation of that D.C. energy shift, whether or not it will actually unlock further demand.
What’s clear is that the biggest bitcoin catalyst continues to be momentum. Price gains beget price gains, perhaps more so than with any other asset. And the number keeps going up.
Until it doesn’t.
“At one point, there will be a washout,” Novogratz said. “I don’t see it. It maybe doesn’t happen until next year, but by definition, when there is tremendous one-way direction, something happens and everyone runs the other direction. And, you know, that’s the nature of the beast in crypto at this point.”
Julie Hyman is the co-host of Market Domination on Yahoo Finance. You can find her on social media @juleshyman.
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