Bitcoin price may not retest this year’s highs for another five months

The summer doldrums may have come early for bitcoin after its sharp rally earlier this year. The cryptocurrency is up 48% for the year thanks to bullish enthusiasm surrounding the debut of U.S. bitcoin ETFs in January and the April 19 halving , and is on pace for its first positive week in the past six, according to Coin Metrics. It’s fallen 11% in the second quarter, however, and is off about 14% from its all-time high above $73,000, reached in March. Analysts remain optimistic on bitcoin long term, but the coming weeks will require some patience, they say. “It could take three to five months for bitcoin to re-test recent highs,” H.C. Wainwright analyst Mike Colonnese told CNBC. “So [we’re] short-term neutral to cautious and bullish medium- to long-term on bitcoin — and by extension the miners.” BTC.CM= 3M mountain Bitcoin has fallen 11% this quarter Bitcoin miners offer high beta exposure to bitcoin and have historically outperformed it during bull cycles, he added. His top pick in the space is CleanSpark . Wolfe Research technical analyst Rob Ginsberg shared a similar view on bitcoin. “While we reiterate our stance that from a multi-year timeframe it makes sense to remain long, the signs of further near-term downside continue to compound,” he said in a note this week. “We continue to ask ourselves if the latest rejection at $70,000 was the beginning of an epic double top.” Colonnese also pointed out that corrections between 25% and 30% are “par for the course” for bitcoin, even in bull cycles. “We would not be surprised if bitcoin were to retrace to the low-to-mid $50,000 range over the short term as stubbornly high inflation, slowing economic growth and geopolitical issues remain key risks,” he said. Bitcoin has held above $60,000 since the beginning of May, when it broke below that level for the first time since February. But analysts who study price charts see that level as vulnerable and have warned about downside risk as low as $49,000 . It’s still early innings for bitcoin this cycle, however, according to Colonnese. Between the increased demand this year from bitcoin ETFs and the reduced supply from the halving, the cryptocurrency’s supply-and-demand dynamics are attractive. His base case is that bitcoin will reach $100,000 this cycle. “Looking at previous price cycles, bitcoin has historically peaked between one to one and a half years after a halving event with the bull stage running longer in each subsequent cycle,” Colonnese said. “Bitcoin rallied to over $67,000 in November 2021, 546 days after the third halving event occurred in May 2020. “Assuming a similar duration for this bull stage of the price cycle, bitcoin may not reach its cycle peak until October 2025.” —CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.