Bitcoin’s $850 Billion Realized Cap Suggests Bull Market Could Last Beyond March 2025—Research
Bitcoin’s $850 Billion Realized Cap Suggests Bull Market Could Last Beyond March 2025—Research
Bitcoin has reached a milestone, with its realized capitalization surpassing $850 billion for the first time. This reflects a significant recovery from the 2022 crypto bear market, where its realized cap was around $400 billion. According to crypto analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin has attracted nearly $500 billion in capital inflows since the low point in November 2022, more than doubling its realized cap. This surge shows that Bitcoin is storing more value than ever before.
In the past year, Bitcoin’s daily settlement volume has remained steady at around $9 billion, and the network has settled over $3 trillion in total. Glassnode emphasizes that the realized cap and the economic volume of transactions confirm that Bitcoin holds both value and utility, challenging critics who question its long-term viability.
However, this bull market is different from past cycles. Bitcoin’s price cycles have typically peaked about a year after an initial rise in the proportion of wealth held in coins that last moved in the previous three months. This time, however, the wealth held in coins that last moved three months ago is lower than in past cycles, indicating that demand is not flowing continuously and steadily. Instead, it has come in bursts, with surges of new demand at irregular intervals.
Additionally, while Bitcoin’s price has increased, retail investor participation is not as strong as in previous cycles. Retail investors, who have typically driven FOMO (fear of missing out) and price rallies in earlier bull markets, are less involved this time. Instead, larger entities seem to be behind the current demand, suggesting a shift toward institutional involvement. Glassnode notes that this lack of retail euphoria further supports the view that the current cycle is atypical compared to earlier cycles, where retail investors drove much of the price growth.
The shift in investor behavior, combined with bursts of demand and the absence of a sustained retail-driven rally, suggests that this cycle could last longer than previous ones. Glassnode has pointed out that previous bull markets typically peaked about a year after Bitcoin’s price first broke an all-time high (ATH), but this cycle saw a new ATH in March 2024. Some analysts predict this bull market could continue beyond March 2025 due to its atypical nature.
Bitcoin’s rising realized cap and the increase in institutional involvement indicate that the cryptocurrency’s position as a store of value is strengthening. Despite challenges and fluctuating demand patterns, its ability to absorb significant capital and maintain high levels of economic activity further cements its role in the financial landscape.
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