Broadband upstream growth rate doubles downstream increase in Q3

Having predicted in February 2024 that global broadband data consumption records were set to be broken – on track to approach or surpass 700GB per month by the end of the year and a terabyte (TB) within the next five years – the latest OpenVault Broadband Insights (OVBI) quarterly update has found consumption tracking up in the third quarter of 2024, but with the surprise that upstream usage increased at more than double the rate of downstream growth.

This represents a new milestone, according to the software-as-a-service-based revenue and network improvement solutions provider. The OBVI update found year-on-year upstream growth ticked higher to 13.9% in the third quarter of 2024, while downstream usage increased by 6.8% – the lowest figure since the analysis began breaking out downstream and upstream data in 2017. The average downstream speed was 564Mbps, an increase of 13.2% compared with the third quarter of 2023, and the average upstream speed was 31Mbps, up 11%.

Overall growth was 7.2%, the lowest year-over-year rate ever recorded, with the monthly average data consumed by subscribers in the third quarter of 2024 being 590.1GB. Average data usage was nearly flat, up less than 1% from the 585.8GB observed in the second quarter of 2024, said to be consistent with historical seasonal patterns. The monthly median usage of 389.3GB was up 7% from the same period a year ago (363.8GB) and up 1.7% from the previous quarter.

The category of “super power users” – consuming 2TB or more per month – increased by 25% year-on-year, while “extreme power users – consuming 5TB or more per month – increased by 44% since the third quarter of 2023.

In addition to the focus on upstream and downstream growth rates, the latest OVBI report also looked for the first time at usage by selected demographic groups. Households with incomes under $50,000 per year had the highest average monthly data usage, at 639GB, despite having the slowest average internet speeds of 530Mbps. Consumption and speeds ranged from 397GB and 578Mbps for a single-person household, to 1.125TB and 833Mbps for a household of four. Speeds and subscriber behaviour were consistent between urban and rural markets, demonstrating the impact of providers’ upgrades in rural areas.

The expanding gap between upstream and downstream growth rates continues a trend that OpenVault analysis has identified throughout the modern broadband era. With the exception of the pandemic period, downstream growth rates have slowed each year, while the rate of increase in the upstream has trended steadily upward, even as the total volume of downstream and upstream usage continues to rise.

Concluding its analysis with a call to action for broadband providers, the OBVI said addressing upstream constraints within the DOCSIS environment will be essential as subscriber behaviour evolves, putting added pressure on networks. It added that with upstream data usage now growing at more than twice the rate of downstream usage, the need for ongoing monitoring and network adaptability to maintain a high quality of experience amid rising demand would be crucial.