Buy steel stocks if Trump wins or clean energy if Harris, says JPMorgan
Steel stocks would likely outperform under if former President Donald Trump returns to the White House, while clean energy providers might rally if Vice President Kamala Harris captures the presidency, according to JPMorgan. The in-person presidential vote wraps up Tuesday, but more than 78 million voters having already cast their ballots early. Certifying election results could take several more days, extending market uncertainty to the end of the week, but investor concerns will ease once either candidate is declared the winner, JPMorgan said. The outcome is binary as far as sectors of the stock market are concerned. “A Harris victory would likely imply the status quo for green policies/spending, however with a more hawkish view on foreign policy targeted around strategic sectors like energy transition and AI,” JPMorgan analyst Bill Peterson wrote in a note on Friday. “Meanwhile, a Trump 2.0 scenario would likely bring increased use of tariffs on Chinese and European imports among others, with the first 100 days focusing on Executive authority related to energy and deregulation along with the phased introduction of tariffs.” Clean Energy In the same 14-page report, JPMorgan shared the name of specific companies that are likely to benefit should either candidate prevail. Here are some of the clean energy stocks to consider under a Harris victory, according to JPMorgan: “We expect the whole of the clean tech universe to rally on a Harris victory, led by EV-exposed names … in response to investor angst around policy/government spending curtailments in each of these areas, which have received significant support” from the Inflation Reduction Act and Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office, Peterson said. EVgo , which operates electric vehicle charging stations, has already more than doubled this year and could continue to rally under a Democratic president. JPMorgan named EVgo, up 300% in the past six months alone, a top pick. UBS is similarly bullish on the Los Angeles-based renewable energy play. The investment bank recently upgraded EVgo to a buy rating from neutral, with its $8.50 price target corresponding to another 7% increase. “Upcoming catalysts include announcement of financial close on the DOE loan, updated financial guidance including an increased growth outlook and reaching adj. EBITDA breakeven in 2H25,” UBS analyst William Grippin wrote. Other stocks that could gain an edge from a Harris presidency include fellow electric vehicle charging station operator ChargePoint and hydrogen fuel cell developer Plug Power , JPMorgan argued. The Wall Street investment bank analyzed the last three presidential election cycles and found that the 100-stock S & P Clean Energy Index historically outperforms the S & P 500 by 5%-6% in the month after a Democratic victory, and underperforms by a similar amount under Republican domination. Steel and aluminum Conversely, Peterson is bullish on steel and aluminum companies if former President Trump gets a second term. “Steels … in particular should rally on a Trump victory assuming greater protectionism would be bullish for U.S. steel pricing, which is already the most attractive globally due to S232 tariffs and largely domestic footprints,” he wrote. “We also see further tariffs benefiting downstream aluminum players.” Shares of steel producer Nucor have tumbled nearly 18% in 2024 but could bounce back under a Trump victory, according to JPMorgan. In August, Morgan Stanley upgraded the Charlotte-based operator of mini mills to overweight from equal weight. Analyst Carlos De Alba’s price target of $176 implies that shares could rise 23% from their Friday close. Nucor “has de-rated vs. its peers despite the strong earnings growth and robust cash generation we expect in 2025 and 2026,” the Morgan Stanley analyst wrote. Steel manufacturer Cleveland-Cliffs , which lost out to Nippon Steel last year in the bidding for U.S. Steel, is another potential beneficiary after sliding 35% so far in 2024. Seaport Research Partners upgraded Cleveland-Cliffs to buy from neutral in August and set a $16.50 price target, implying 24% upside over the next 12 months. “First, the bad news… Given the recent downcycle in steel prices, we have to cut 3Q24 EBITDA and see it probable that consensus will likely lower estimates in the coming weeks,” said Seaport analyst Martin Englert. “The good news is that the disciplined and robust supply-side response is still percolating through the market and will become more evident in the near term.” Other potential winners under a Trump presidency include aluminum producer Kaiser Aluminum and rare-earth materials processor MP Materials , said JPMorgan.
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