āCheatingā Pollsters Are Putting āFinger on the Scaleā
Polling data expert Nate Silver slammed election forecasts showing a close race between presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump across several states. Silver accused many pollsters of āherdingā to ensure their predictions arenāt too far off from other predictions.
āIn fact, I kind of trust pollsters less, they all, every time a pollster [says] āOh, every state is just +1, every single stateās a tie,ā No! Youāre fāing herding! Youāre cheating! Youāre cheating!ā said Silver during a Friday episode of his weekly podcast, Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova.
Silver has maintained his prediction that Trump will overtake Harris, 55 percent and 45 percent respectively, to return to the White House.
However, Silver slammed GOP-leaning polling firms for continually putting Trump at an advantage in many states, accusing them of making a prediction that wonāt put them ātoo far on a limb.ā
He added, āYour numbers arenāt all going to come out at exactly 1-point leads when youāre sampling 800 people over dozens of surveys. You are lying! Youāre putting your fāing finger on the scale!ā
According to Silver, āIf a pollster never publishes any numbers that surprises you, then it has no value.ā
In a New York Times op-ed, Silver urged not to trust anyoneās gutānot even his. He pointed to Trumpās 2016 win as an example.
āItās not that Trump voters are lying to pollsters; itās that in 2016 and 2020, pollsters werenāt reaching enough of them,ā wrote Silver. āTrump supporters often have lower civic engagement and social trust, so they can be less inclined to complete a survey from a news organization.ā
There is also a chance that the presidential race really is just that close, said Silver.
āBut look, all seven swing states are still polling within it looks like a point and a half here. It doesnāt take a genius to know that if every swing state is a tie, that the overall forecast is a tie,ā said Silver.
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