China ETFs were big winners in September. Be cautious from here

Chinese stocks rallied sharply in the final days of September, spurred by new stimulus proposals, including support for the troubled real estate industry and plans from the People’s Bank of China to cut rates . The rally continued on Monday, with the CSI 300 index surging more than 8% for its best day since 2008 . As a result of that excitement, China ETFs are dominating the list of top performing funds in September, according to FactSet. The iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) was up about 22% on the month, while the KraneSharesCSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) was up more than 32%. KWEB 1M mountain KWEB is one of the top performing non-levered ETFs in September. Other top performers include the Global X MSCI China Consumer Discretionary ETF (CHIQ) and the Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF (PGJ) , with September gains of roughly 32% and 30%, respectively. However, the Chinese market has seen bursts of excitement before, and they haven’t always been kind to investors. China has been a long-term underperformer of both the U.S. market and some broad measures of global stocks. And the drawdowns in particularly have been bad. Since 1992, the MSCI China Index has seen a drawdown of nearly 30% on average every year, according to Strategas, which is more than double that of the S & P 500. The MSCI China Index’s total annualized return during that period is under 1%. Because investors tend to pile into Chinese stocks when the sector is hot, the performance for China ETFs looks even worse when viewed from a client cash basis. “China ETFs are among the few categories that have seen more net inflows than have current AUM – along with long duration bonds (TLT) and long volatility (VXX),” Strategas ETF strategist Todd Sohn said in a note in May. “China allocations are all about timing. Big rallies typically followed by big declines. The average here is a gain of +78% over 176 trading days vs. a decline of -42% over 165 trading days,” the note continued. To be sure, this rally does have some high-profile believers. Hedge fund billionaire David Tepper said Thursday on CNBC’s ” Squawk Box ” that he thinks there’s been ” a whole shift ” around China and that he was buying stocks tied to the country.