COMMENTARY: How could calling a snap election hinder or help Doug Ford’s re-election bid?

After months of rumours, Doug Ford met with Lt. Gov. Edith Dumont on Tuesday to trigger an election, a year and a half ahead of the date he was required to do so.

But with 16 months left on his term as premier, and 64 percent of the seats in Ontario’s legislature, why would it make sense for Ford to call an election so far ahead of schedule?

“I think the question he’s probably asking himself is, ‘Will things be any better in a year and a half or now for the government?’” said Darrell Bricker, global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs. “And given what’s potentially pending from the United States relative to tariffs, there’s probably a chance that it won’t be a … lot better.”

There are several benefits for the Progressive Conservatives to call an election now, including the fact that most polls show them well ahead of the opposition.

“He’s been looking for an opportunity to call it for a long time,” noted John Milloy, who is the director of the Centre for Public Ethics at Martin Luther University. “They’ve been ahead in the polls.”

Since the last election in 2022, two other parties have also introduced new leaders into the mix, with the Liberals having chosen Bonnie Crombie and the NDP going with Marit Stiles.

“Both opposition parties have relatively new leaders who are still finding their feet,” said Milloy, who served as a provincial Liberal cabinet minister in a previous life.

Mike Schreiner remains the Ontario Green Party leader, with two seats when the legislature was dissolved.

With the other two major parties having introduced new leadership, they may also have trouble matching the PC’s war chest as well.

“The other parties, I don’t think, have these same kinds of fundraising infrastructure situations,” noted Western University professor Laura Stephenson.

While there are obvious benefits for Ford, voters in Ontario may be less impressed by his move.

“The biggest con is that people say, ‘Why are you calling it early?’ and they get suspicious or are unhappy with having to go to the polls,” Stephenson noted.

But we are in a time when these are becoming much more commonplace so it remains a question mark as to whether it will be too divisive.

“Breaking the fixed election law has become so commonplace that I’m not sure people are going to be purists about it and say, ‘You know, he didn’t wait his four years,’” he said.

Stephenson noted that his opponents will attempt to use this against him.

“I think the opposition parties are trying to make those kinds of statements, saying this is a waste of taxpayer money, we should be focusing on other things, etc.,” she said.

“But I’m not sure how effective they’re getting their message out into the public.”

In order to justify the early election call, Ford has tried to frame the election around whether he is the man to lead Ontario — and Canada — in the battle against Donald Trump and the U.S. president’s threat of tariffs on Canadian products.

“If something on that front doesn’t happen the way that Doug Ford said it was going to happen, he’s putting an awful lot in the hands of somebody else,” Bricker explained, noting that the U.S. president could decide to take things in a number of different directions.

With Trump in the foreground, along with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stepping down, in effect becoming a lame duck, Ford’s election call creates a leadership void in the country’s biggest province at a time when he is painting a crisis.

“There is a school of thought that says the premier should be being premier and he should be continuing his work, which I think everyone has said has been good work and not trying to muddy it with an election,” Milloy said.

“He is bound by the caretaker principle and although he’s going to try to insert himself into the national conversation, he’s a candidate for premier.”

Ontario will also have to deal with a wild card in Trump who may force Ford to make some decisions at a time when that may not be in his best interest.

“That’s going to mean that Ford is going to have to push forward and he’s going to have to make some decisions to the best of his judgment,” Stephenson said. “But any time you make tough decisions, you create people who aren’t going to be happy with those decisions.”

Trending Now

• 

  Egg prices soar in U.S. What’s keeping Canada’s prices stable?

• 

  D.C. plane crash victims include young figure skaters: ‘Horrific’

Some voters may also question why an election was needed to deal with tariffs when all party leaders appear to be on the same page with regard to keeping an eye on potential hostilities south of the border.

“There seems to be a consensus that that’s drawn out from all political parties, that we need to have this kind of a measured approach that Doug Ford’s put forward,” Milloy said.

“And I don’t think Bonnie Crombie or Marit would be that much different. So what’s the question?”

It also may have been a tougher campaign for Ford if Trump were not around as his record would be more of a discussion than it is.

If “we didn’t have this external threat that was so obvious, I think that it might have been a harder type of election because then it’s going. to be more about, you know, focusing on platforms and what has happened and hasn’t happened and what’s going to be done in the future,” Stephenson offered.

That said, Ford remains the favourite to get re-elected by many but the road to retaining power was not made easier by the aforementioned decision by Trudeau to step aside

His party has been running negative campaign ads for months, tying Crombie to Trudeau, but the Liberals could experience a resurgence federally with a new leader.

“The Liberal brand in general in the country is not doing very well, although, you know, Mark Carney may be able to get or Chrystia Freeland may be able to turn that around a little bit,” Bricker explained.

“But it’s probably too late to have any effect on the Ontario provincial election campaign.”

 

While Ford seems well ahead, at least by polling numbers, one of the most memorable elections in Ontario saw Liberal premier David Peterson call a snap election only to be ousted by Bob Rae.

“Back in 1990 when in a very similar type of circumstance, David Peterson thinking that the economy was going to get a lot worse, said it would be better to go early and see if he could secure a mandate and ended up electing an NDP majority,” Bricker recalled.

While Peterson’s political career came to an end that day, Ford does not appear to be facing quite the same calibre of opponent this year — at least as far as we know.

“The difference at that time compared to this time was that the NDP had a new leader. They had Bob Rae and Bob Rae was a bit of a rock star in Canadian politics,” Bricker offered.

“Doug Ford isn’t facing a Bob Rae with Marit Styles or with Bonnie Crombie. Unless one of them comes out and really surprises.”