Just three candidates appear to have qualified so far for the third Republican presidential debate in Miami on Nov. 8, less than half the number that made it to the first and second debates earlier this year. Former President Donald J. Trump, the clear front-runner in polling and fund-raising, did not participate in the first two debates, and is unlikely to take part in the third.
Who appears to have qualified for the third debate so far
 |
Qualified according to the campaign |
Candidate |
Qualified for third debate |
Was at second debate |
Was at first debate |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Donald J. Trump Former president |
no |
no |
no |
|
Ron DeSantis Governor of Florida |
|
|
|
|
Nikki Haley Former governor of South Carolina |
|
|
|
|
Vivek Ramaswamy Entrepreneur |
|
|
|
|
Mike Pence Former vice president |
no |
|
|
|
Chris Christie Former governor of New Jersey |
no |
|
|
|
Tim Scott Senator from South Carolina |
no |
|
|
|
Doug Burgum Governor of North Dakota |
no |
|
|
|
Asa Hutchinson Former governor of Arkansas |
no |
no |
|
|
Ryan Binkley Businessman and pastor |
no |
no |
no |
|
Larry Elder Conservative talk radio host |
no |
no |
no |
|
Perry Johnson Businessman |
no |
no |
no |
|
Will Hurd Former congressman from Texas |
no |
no |
|
|
Francis Suarez Mayor of Miami |
no |
To participate, each candidate needs to satisfy fund-raising and polling criteria set by the Republican National Committee. Financially, they each need at least 70,000 campaign donors, including at least 200 donors from 20 states or territories. And they need support from at least 4 percent of Republican voters in two national polls, or in one national poll and two polls from a short list of early primary states. These polls have to meet R.N.C. standards, but the committee has generally refused to confirm which surveys count.
The requirements for the debates have gotten progressively stricter, as the R.N.C. has sought to narrow the field of candidates who make it to the stage. Eight candidates qualified for the first debate, and seven qualified for the second.
For former Vice President Mike Pence and former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, the threshold of 70,000 individual donors has proved particularly challenging. Both men appear to have fulfilled the polling criteria, but they have yet to announce that they have met the donor threshold.
Candidates have until Nov. 6 to meet the fund-raising and polling requirements. Those who do, as part of their debate qualification, must also sign a pledge to follow several R.N.C. guidelines, including making a promise to support the eventual Republican nominee. Many candidates signed this pledge before participating in the first debate. Mr. Trump has refused to sign.
Where candidates stand on each requirement for the third debate
|
|
Met goal according to the R.N.C. or a New York Times analysis |
|
|
Met financial goal according to the campaign |
|
Appears to have qualified |
Candidate |
Money goal met |
Polling goal met |
Signed pledge |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Donald J. Trump Former president |
|
|
no |
|
Ron DeSantis Governor of Florida |
|
|
|
|
Nikki Haley Former governor of South Carolina |
|
|
|
|
Vivek Ramaswamy Entrepreneur |
|
|
|
|
Mike Pence Former vice president |
no |
|
|
|
Chris Christie Former governor of New Jersey |
no |
|
|
|
Tim Scott Senator from South Carolina |
|
no |
|
|
Doug Burgum Governor of North Dakota |
no |
no |
|
|
Asa Hutchinson Former governor of Arkansas |
no |
no |
|
|
Ryan Binkley Businessman and pastor |
no |
no |
no |
|
Larry Elder Conservative talk radio host |
no |
no |
no |
|
Perry Johnson Businessman |
no |
no |
no |
|
Will Hurd Former congressman from Texas |
|||
|
Francis Suarez Mayor of Miami |
|||
Methodology
The New York Times reached out to campaigns directly to determine whether candidates had met the donor requirements for debate qualification, because the latest financial disclosures, filed on Oct. 15, offer an incomplete view of candidates’ finances. More complete financial reports will not be publicly available until after the debate. Mr. Trump is the only candidate whose filings showed he had surpassed the donor requirements to attend the third debate.
To determine whether candidates had met the polling thresholds, The Times analyzed Republican primary polls collected by FiveThirtyEight. The R.N.C. has not shared a full list of qualifying polls, so The Times included in its analysis surveys that appear to have met the committee’s criteria.
Donors and polling will ultimately be verified by the R.N.C., which is expected to announce the lineup within days of the debate.