Do the Chiefs have a Travis Kelce problem? The answer may surprise you

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — No, the Kansas City Chiefs don’t have a Travis Kelce problem.

Three weeks into the NFL’s season, an increasing number of people — fans, analysts and even former players — have come to a rather quick conclusion that Kelce, the Chiefs’ star tight end and future Hall of Famer, is washed. A has-been. An NFL legend who is deep into the twilight of his career, a player the Chiefs cannot rely on for pivotal highlights the way they used to, even as the franchise pursues an unprecedented third consecutive Super Bowl victory.

The argument is simple: Just look at Kelce’s stats. In three games, Kelce’s production has been lower than anyone expected — eight receptions on just 12 targets for 69 yards and no touchdowns. Not great.

Plus, for the first time this season, Kelce didn’t look like his usual gregarious, jovial self during Sunday night’s game against the Atlanta Falcons. NBC’s cameras captured Kelce, who turns 35 next week, sitting on the bench just before halftime with a dejected, withdrawn expression. At times, even after certain plays, he looked a bit disinterested.

Cris Collinsworth, NBC’s game analyst and a former NFL receiver, struggled to figure out why Kelce was struggling.

“I’m just flabbergasted,” Collinsworth said before halftime. “I mean, one game, big deal. Two games, all right. This is the third game now where we have not seen the magic of (quarterback Patrick) Mahomes and Kelce, and I can’t really explain that one.”

the face of everyone who drafted Travis Kelce in fantasy pic.twitter.com/Ebl9FwMZhN

— Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) September 23, 2024

The truth, when you watch the all-22 film, is that Kelce is getting open. Quite a bit, actually. More than you think — or what you can see on TV.

As a route runner, Kelce has created an average separation of 3.5 yards, tied for 13th among tight ends, according to Next Gen Stats. Another star player has an average separation of 3.6 yards this season. That player is Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson, who has produced 14 receptions on 21 targets for 273 yards and three touchdowns.

So why are Kelce’s stats so poor?

“Are we not allowed to say that he’s out of shape, that he’s been partying all offseason?” NFL analyst Todd McShay said Monday on “The Ryen Russillo Podcast.” McShay continued: “He’s been jet-setting around with the most famous person (Taylor Swift) probably in the entire world, that he’s drinking, going to the U.S. Open and he’s got cocktails in.

“He’s one of the best to ever do it. … He’s not in the same shape. He’s not the same. I don’t see the same explosiveness. I see him wearing down a bit.”

McShay is incorrect. While his offseason itinerary was crammed — with filming national commercials, guest starring in the new FX series “Grotesquerie” and flying to Europe several times to attend Swift’s concerts — Kelce was diligent about training, though his routine was different. Wherever Kelce was, one of his three personal trainers — Alex Skacel, Andrew Spruill and Laurence Justin Ng — usually was with him. Since the Chiefs began training camp in mid-July, Kelce has not missed a practice. He is healthy and has been on the field a ton, playing 85 percent of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps (164 of 193).

Let’s present another theory, this one from Rodney Harrison, an NBC analyst and former NFL safety.

“He’s busy, he’s got a lot on his plate,” Harrison said of Kelce during Sunday’s postgame show. “But when you’re in that situation, you’ve got to forget about everything else and you’ve got to focus 100 percent on football. That’s the main responsibility. … He’s a good player still, but I don’t believe he’s a great, great player.”

How can we forget that earlier this year, in January and February, Kelce had one of the greatest postseasons for a tight end in NFL history?

In the Chiefs’ four-game postseason run, Kelce had 32 receptions for 355 yards and three touchdowns to help the team become back-to-back champions. In Super Bowl LVIII, Kelce reached a top speed of 19.68 mph, according to Next Gen Stats, on a 22-yard reception against man-to-man coverage from All-Pro 49ers linebacker Fred Warner to set up the Chiefs’ game-tying field goal. It was Kelce’s fastest speed as a ball carrier in seven seasons.

Who else but Kelce with 9 seconds to go?!

📺: #SBLVIII on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/ZJ0MZAnk7f

— NFL (@NFL) February 12, 2024

Kelce declined to talk to reporters after Sunday’s game, but Mahomes tried his best to explain what his teammate is experiencing on the field.

“It’s crazy because the respect factor (opposing defenses) have for Travis is just unreal,” Mahomes said. “It’s well-deserved, but we’re calling a lot of plays for Travis, and it’s, like, two or three people are going to him. He understands. That’s the great thing about him. He wants to make an impact on the game, but he wants to win.”

Mahomes is right, to a point. At no point in Sunday’s game did the Falcons dedicate three defenders to guard Kelce.

In fact, the Falcons didn’t double-team Kelce often, instead playing zone coverage to dissuade Mahomes from throwing deep passes. The Falcons’ strategy was understandable. Mahomes didn’t complete a single pass where the ball traveled more than 20 yards in the air past the line of scrimmage. The Chiefs counterattacked with 27 designed running plays, 13 passes at or behind the line of scrimmage and a bunch of plays where Kelce was used as a decoy.

Coach Andy Reid and offensive coordinator Matt Nagy are not calling as many plays as they used to where Kelce appears to be Mahomes’ primary option. That role has been transferred to receiver Rashee Rice, an ascending second-year player who has developed into the Chiefs’ No. 1 receiver. Against the Falcons, Rice led the Chiefs with 12 receptions on 14 targets for 110 yards and a touchdown, many of his routes the type that Kelce has executed against zone coverage.

“I know people are saying that he’s old or has distractions, but the defenses don’t think that,” Reid said Wednesday. “We have another receiver (Rice) that plays opposite of (Kelce) who has a lot of yards and catches. That’s how this thing goes. Travis is fine. He just keeps being Travis. He works his tail off and he hasn’t lost a step. He’s not distracted.”

When Rice scored his 13-yard touchdown, the Falcons played man coverage with a single safety in the middle of the field. Mahomes chose to throw the ball to Rice over Kelce, who was in a one-on-one matchup against cornerback A.J. Terrell. Earlier in the first half, Kelce beat safety Jessie Bates III on a corner route, creating plenty of separation to be wide open for a reception in the intermediate area of the field. Mahomes threw the ball to Rice for a 6-yard gain, and Kelce threw his hands up in frustration. When the Chiefs scored their final touchdown against the Falcons, Kelce was open against Terrell for a 9-yard gain, which would’ve given the Chiefs a first down. Instead, Mahomes connected with receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, who ran a crossing route for a 13-yard score.

A JuJu Smith-Schuster TOUCHDOWN extends the Chiefs’ lead! #ChiefsKingdom

📺 NBC and Peacock (🎥 NFL)pic.twitter.com/QryluklUJ4

— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) September 23, 2024

“With how defenses are playing us right now, I’m not really getting a lot of opportunities to make plays down the field, but (I’m) not using that as an excuse,” Kelce said on Wednesday’s episode of his “New Heights” podcast. “Moving forward, still trying to make sure that I help the team out in that regard knowing I’ve been that weapon for us in the past.

“I’ve had a lot of catches in this league, man. I’m not worried about the catches and the yards and all that. I have the most fun when the ball is thrown my way. Who doesn’t? It has everything to do with execution, just making sure we’re doing whatever we can to win these football games, man. That’s always going to be the goal.”

One of the best parts of the sport is that every skill-position player relies on 10 teammates to have individual success. Too often this season, Kelce’s contributions have been thwarted by one of his teammates.

Kelce’s best moment in Week 2 against the Bengals — a 41-yard reception in the fourth quarter — was negated by a holding penalty committed by rookie left tackle Kingsley Suamataia, who was trying to block defensive end Trey Hendrickson. Kelce was wide open in the back of the end zone when Mahomes threw a 1-yard touchdown pass to left tackle Wanya Morris. Even when Reid and Nagy called a play for Kelce near the goal line, a backward pass to set up a screen, he failed to get into the end zone because he ran into right guard Trey Smith before reaching the goal line.

Mahomes to Kelce is BACK.

📺: #Kickoff2024 on NBC/Peacock
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/TAQh9ASVMV

— NFL (@NFL) September 6, 2024

The easiest way for Kelce to be more productive, starting Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers, is for Mahomes to play better and for Reid and Nagy to incorporate him more into their play calls, especially in the red zone.

Despite left tackle being a bit of a liability, Mahomes needs to get into creation mode more often, using his elusiveness to extend plays to outwit the opposing defense’s zone coverage. When Mahomes scrambles out of the pocket, he most often finds Kelce wide open in the middle of the field. It happened in the season opener when Mahomes turned a potential sack into a gain of 23 yards.

“I’m going to try to do my best to keep feeding him the ball whenever he’s open,” Mahomes said of Kelce on Sunday. “But I think the more Rashee makes plays, the more we’re able to run the ball, the more we can get (rookie receiver Xavier) Worthy involved, that’s going to open Travis up more.”

The Chiefs are wise not to overuse Kelce, protecting him as much as possible for another postseason run. They also have won three games while scoring 75 points, the second most in the AFC.

Kelce is not the Chiefs’ problem. But for anyone worried about his production, the solution is for almost everyone else on offense, except Rice and a few linemen, to elevate their performance. If and when that happens, expect to see the Kelce of old.

(Illustration: Meech Robinson / The Athletic; photo: Kevin Sabitus / Getty Images)