DoubleLine’s Gundlach says expect higher rates if Republicans also win House
Jeffrey Gundlach speaks at the 24th Annual Sohn Investment Conference in New York, May 6, 2019.
Adam Jeffery | CNBC
DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Thursday that interest rates could shoot higher if Republicans end up controlling the House, securing a governing trifecta that gives President-elect Donald Trump free rein to spend as he pleases.
Gundlach, a noted fixed-income investor whose firm manages over $96 billion, believes the higher government spending would require more borrowing through Treasury issuance, putting upward pressure on bond yields.
“If the House goes to Republicans, there’s going to be a lot of debt, there’s going to be higher interest rates at the long end, and it’ll be interesting to see how the Fed reacts to that,” Gundlach said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell.”
The race to control the House is undecided as of Thursday after Republicans clinched their new Senate majority. The Federal Reserve cut rates Thursday, and traders expect the central bank to cut again in December and several times in 2025.
Notable investors such as Gundlach have been voicing concerns about the challenging fiscal situation. Fiscal 2024 just ended with the government running a budget deficit in excess of $1.8 trillion, including more than $1.1 trillion dedicated solely to paying financing costs on the $36 trillion U.S. debt.
“Trump says he’s going to cut taxes … he’s very pro cyclical stimulus,” Gundlach said. “So it looks to me that there will be some pressure on interest rates, and particularly at the long end. I think that this election result is very, very consequential.”
If the Trump administration extends the 2017 tax cuts or introduces new reductions, it could add a significant amount to the nation’s debt in the next few years, worsening the already troublesome fiscal picture.
Still, Gundlach, who had predicted a recession in the U.S., said the Trump presidency makes such an economic downturn less likely.
“I do think that it’s right to see the Trump victory as being as reducing the odds for near-term recession fairly substantially,” Gundlach said. “Certainly, the odds of recession drop when you have this type of agenda being promoted in plain English for the past three months by Mr. Trump.”
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