Early MLB award predictions for MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and more

We’re down to the final week and a half of the regular season, and although we’re still two months away from award season, we’ve seen enough to at least determine the front-runners for MLB’s major individual honors, which will be presented in November after the World Series. Therefore, let’s have some fun and look at the competition for the key awards.

If the season ended today, here’s who I think would take home the top prizes. In the comments section, let me know what I got right and what I got wrong, and why.

(WAR figures are according to Baseball Reference as of Sept. 19.) 

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American League MVP

1. Aaron Judge, CF, Yankees (9.8 WAR)

2. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Royals (9.2 WAR)
3. Juan Soto, RF, Yankees (7.7 WAR)

Judge leads the AL in home runs (53), RBIs (136), walks (124), on-base percentage (.455), slugging percentage (.689) and OPS+ (218). The six-time All-Star also has played solid defense in center field. He should win his second MVP Award come November. He’s having another historic season and is the leader of the team with the best record in the league. Witt deserves serious consideration as he ranks first in the AL in batting average (.331), first in runs scored (124), fifth in OBP (.387) and second in slugging percentage (.598). He has hit 32 homers and stolen 30 bases for his second straight 30-30 season, and he’s played Gold Glove-caliber shortstop, but it won’t be enough to top Judge in the voting. Meanwhile, Soto will finish behind Judge and Witt, but his strong season should set him up to land a contract of more than $600 million in free agency.

National League MVP

1. Shohei Ohtani, DH, Dodgers (7.3 WAR)

2. Francisco Lindor, SS, Mets (6.6 WAR)
3. Ketel Marte, 2B, Diamondbacks (5.7 WAR)
4. Bryce Harper, 1B, Phillies (4.4 WAR)

Ohtani will soon become the first player in major-league history with 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases in a season as well as the first designated hitter to win the MVP Award. Ohtani leads the NL in home runs (48), RBIs (110), runs (119), slugging percentage (.607), OPS (.978) and total bases (360). The four-time All-Star is also on the verge of winning his third MVP Award, after winning the AL honor in 2021 and 2023 with the Angels. However, the voting is expected to be close as Lindor has had an MVP-caliber season, batting .271 with 31 home runs and 27 stolen bases while playing stellar defense at shortstop. Marte and Harper should get some consideration as well.

AL Cy Young

1. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Tigers (6.0 WAR)

2. Emmanuel Clase, RHP, Guardians (4.3 WAR)
3. Seth Lugo, RHP, Royals (4.7 WAR)

After his first spring training as Tigers manager in 2021, A.J. Hinch told me he thought Skubal, then 24 with only seven starts in his major-league career, would someday win a Cy Young Award — and that day has almost arrived. Skubal is 17-4 with a league-leading 2.48 ERA and a majors-leading 221 strikeouts in 185 innings. He ranks in the 100th percentile in Statcast’s pitching run value. Opposing batters have hit .203 against his four-seamer, .223 against his changeup, .210 against his sinker, .173 against his slider and .167 against his knuckle curve. Clase will get some votes after 46 saves in 49 opportunities and eye-popping stats like a 0.64 ERA and 0.649 WHIP, but he’ll win the award for best AL reliever instead (see below).

NL Cy Young

1. Chris Sale, LHP, Braves (6.3 WAR)

2. Zack Wheeler, RHP, Phillies (5.5 WAR)
3. Michael King, RHP, Padres (3.9 WAR)

This has been a race between Sale and Wheeler all season long, but Sale pulled away in the second half when he went 4-0 with a 1.72 ERA and one home run allowed in 62 2/3 innings. Overall, he leads the NL in wins (17), ERA (2.35), strikeouts (219), FIP (2.02) and ERA+ (177). He has averaged a league-leading 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings and has 1.9 walks per nine. He ranks in the 100th percentile in both pitching run value and breaking run value. The eight-time All-Star deserves to win his first Cy Young Award. Wheeler has had another terrific season, going 16-6 with a 2.56 ERA and league-leading 0.954WHIP over 30 starts. He’s struck out 205 strikeouts in 186 2/3 innings and been dominant down the stretch, allowing two runs or fewer in his last nine starts.

AL Rookie of the Year

1. Austin Wells, C, Yankees (2.9 WAR)

2. Luis Gil, RHP, Yankees (3.6 WAR)
3. Colton Cowser, OF, Orioles (2.4 WAR)
4. Mason Miller, RHP, A’s (2.5 WAR)

Wells has been the best overall rookie position player in the class, batting .244 with 13 home runs and a 112 OPS+. He’s been the Yankees’ cleanup hitter most of the season, starring on both sides of the ball. Defensively, he ranks in the 96th percentile in fielding run value and is an elite pitch framer, ranking in the 97th percentile among all catchers. Wells’ biggest competition for the award is his teammate Gil, who has gone 14-6 with a 3.14 ERA and 161 strikeouts over 140 2/3 innings (27 starts). As I’ve often said over the years, there should be both a rookie pitcher and rookie position player award, and if that were the case, the Yankees would have a clean sweep this year. Cowser and Miller deserve consideration for this year’s ROY award as well.

NL Rookie of the Year

1. Paul Skenes, RHP, Pirates (5.5 WAR)

2. Jackson Merrill, CF, Padres (4.0 WAR)
3. Jackson Chourio, OF, Brewers (3.9 WAR)

Skenes should win this race over Merrill and Chourio in my mind, but again, we need two awards — one for rookie pitchers and one for rookie position players. However, Skenes deserves this year’s award, going 10-3 with a 2.07 ERA and 158 strikeouts in 126 innings (21 starts). He also started the All-Star Game for the National League. Merrill deserves strong consideration as he’s hit 24 home runs, stolen 16 bases, logged a 127 OPS+ and excelled in center field, a position he just started playing this year. Chourio also deserves real consideration as he’s hit 21 home runs, swiped 20 bags, posted a 121 OPS+ and played above-average defense. He has slashed .312/.370/.591 with 12 homers in the second half, which really helped him close the gap on both Skenes and Merrill.

Mariano Rivera Award (AL Reliever of the Year)

1. Emmanuel Clase, RHP, Guardians (4.3 WAR)

2. Kirby Yates, RHP, Rangers (3.1 WAR)

Clase has had a historic season, posting 46 saves with a 0.65 ERA and 0.640 WHIP. He’s filled up the strike zone and consistently pitched ahead in the count, logging 64 strikeouts to eight walks in 70 1/3 innings. He ranks in the 99th percentile in both pitching run value and fastball run value. Opposing batters have hit .153 against his cutter which he delivers at 99-100 mph, and batted .136 against his wipeout slider. Yates deserves mention for his 1.23 ERA, 0.852 WHIP and 83 strikeouts in 58 2/3 innings.

Trevor Hoffman Award (NL Reliever of the Year)

1. Raisel Iglesias, RHP, Braves (2.7 WAR)

2. Ryan Helsley, RHP, Cardinals (2.8 WAR)

This will be one of the closest awards races as Iglesias has notched 31 saves with a 1.87 ERA and ranks in the 95th percentile in pitching run value while Helsley has tallied 45 saves with a 2.15 ERA and ranks in the 92nd percentile in pitching run value. I’ll go with Iglesias by a gnat’s eyelash.

AL Comeback Player of the Year

Tyler O’Neill, OF, Red Sox (2.7 WAR)

O’Neill was coming off two subpar seasons in St. Louis — hitting .228 with 14 homers in 96 games in 2022 and .231 with nine home runs in 72 games in 2023 — but he made a strong comeback this year in Boston despite suffering some injuries. He’s slashed .249/.343/.532 with 18 doubles, 31 home runs and 61 RBIs over 107 games, his best season since 2021 when he finished eighth in the NL MVP voting.

NL Comeback Player of the Year

Chris Sale, LHP, Braves (6.3 WAR)

Sale had not been healthy enough to pitch more than 103 innings in a season since 2019, but he’s given the Braves more than 170 this year — at a Cy Young-winning level to boot. It’s hard to imagine him not winning NL Comeback Player of the Year as well. Jack Flaherty of the Dodgers deserves a mention after his impressive season, but being dealt at the trade deadline makes it difficult for him to win this award in either league.

AL Manager of the Year

1. Matt Quatraro, Royals

2. Stephen Vogt, Guardians
3. A.J. Hinch, Tigers

The Manager of the Year Award isn’t given to the best manager in each league; more often, it goes to the manager whose team overachieved the most or improved the most from the year before. Quatraro should win the AL award after taking a team that went 56-106 last year to the cusp of a playoff berth this year. His bullpen management, lineup juggling and emphasis on putting the ball in play and “moving the chains” have helped make this season a huge success in Kansas City. He has great leadership and communications skills and is well-respected by the players and front office. The Royals’ lineup ranks third in the AL in runs scored and last in strikeouts, and their pitching staff is sixth in ERA. Stephen Vogt deserves serious consideration as he’s done a marvelous job in replacing future Hall of Famer Terry Francona in Cleveland, showing a special leadership style with his players in guiding the Guardians to a (likely) division title.

NL Manager of the Year

1. Pat Murphy, Brewers

2. Carlos Mendoza, Mets
3. Mike Shildt, Padres

Former Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns bolted to the Mets, manager Craig Counsell departed for the rival Cubs, Corbin Burnes was traded to the Orioles and Brandon Woodruff was out for the year after shoulder surgery … and yet the Brewers still finished in first place in the NL Central under Murphy, whose leadership had a lot to do with it. The Brewers rank third in the NL in runs scored despite having a young lineup and second in team ERA.

(Top image: Chris Sale: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images; Aaron Judge: Luke Hales / Getty Images; Paul Skenes: Gene Wang / Getty Images)