Much has changed in Ethereum’s price (ETHUSD) since our last public update four weeks ago, see here, when we anticipated a quicker rally to $6000+. Instead, Ether experienced a notable detour over the past four weeks, including a sudden spike on Friday, but the overall outlook remains unchanged, see Figure 1 below.
Specifically, our preferred long-term Elliott Wave Principle (EW) analysis suggests that ETHUSD is in the final upward impulse from its April 2025 low: the black Wave-5. Since impulses move in five waves (red W-i, ii, iii, iv, v) and only four have occurred so far, at least one more wave (red W-v) is needed. The ideal target zone for W-v is $6921 to $9159.
Figure 1. Our preferred long-term EW count for Ethereum.
In this case, we count down months since the April black W-4 low as the 2nd and 4th waves of the black W-5: red W-ii and W-iv, respectively. Additionally, at last week’s low, Ether retested the breakout from the bull flag pattern it remained in for most of 2022-24. This is a classic technical pattern. From this perspective, the bull flag target of $6141 remains unmet, given the recent $4955 ATH on August 24.
So, what happened last week? (Flash) Crashes are most often C-waves. Last Friday was no different, and our adjusted short-term EW count indicates the flash crash most likely completed the green W-c of the red W-iv. In this case, the 4th wave became protracted rather than simple, as shown in our last update, evolving into a seven-week-long expanded flat. See Figure 2 below.
Figure 2. Our preferred short-term EW count for Ethereum.
The 11-day rally that peaked at the October 7 high of $4758 consisted of seven waves and was therefore a corrective B-wave, as those typically move in 3, 7, 11, etc., steps, while impulses move in 5, 9, 11, etc., steps. Additionally, although the red W-iii topped beyond the typical 161.8% Fibonacci extension, Ether bottomed out right at the 100.0% Fib extension at Friday’s low, which is a common 4th wave target.
Therefore, as long as it remains above last Friday’s $3546 low, we can expect Ether to still reach over $6000 and possibly as high as $9000 in the coming weeks and months.
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