Federal Election: Labor tipped into minority as new polls spells danger for Anthony Albanese
Labor will be tipped into minority government after the next election, according to new polling that shows the Coalition poised to regain heartland seats from teal independents.
New research from pollsters Redbridge suggests Anthony Albanese risks losing more than a dozen seats unless he can arrest crumbling support in outer suburbia and parts of regional Australia battered by the cost-of-living crisis.
The poll shows a hung parliament in which Labor is forced to govern with the Greens and independents would be a near certainty if the election was held today.
Released ahead of Federal Parliament’s return on Monday, the poll of almost 6000 voters shows Labor and the Coalition locked 50:50 on a two-party preferred basis after a small swing toward Peter Dutton’s Opposition since the last 2022 election.
Labor would hold the most seats in the next parliament if the results of the poll were replicated on election day.
But even the upper limit of its predicted range of seats – 75 – won’t be enough to govern in majority.
Labor’s predicament could be far worse, with the research revealing at least seven seats are poised to fall to the Coalition.
The seats of Gilmore (NSW), Paterson (NSW), Lingiari (NT) and Lyons (Tasmania) are considered the most vulnerable, while Robertson (NSW), Dobell (NSW) and Hunter are also under serious threat.
A further six suburban electorates – Bennelong (NSW), McEwen (Victoria), Chisholm (Victoria), Bruce (Victoria), Tangney (WA) and Aston (Victoria) – are in danger but the races are too close to call
The new WA seat of Bullwinkel, which is notionally Labor, also falls into that category.
The polling showed the Coalition on track to regain two teal seats, with the Liberals ahead 53-47 in both Kate Chaney’s Perth seat of Curtin and Zoe Daniel’s Melbourne seat of Goldstein.
Despite the expected gains, it remains highly unlikely Mr Dutton will be in a position to form Government.
Labor could pick up seats in Sydney (Hughes), Melbourne (Casey) and Brisbane (Forde) – although all those races are considered too close to call.
The survey was conducted between July 10 and August 27.
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