Ford guidance overshadows strong fourth-quarter results. What analysts are saying

Wall Street analysts are skeptical of near-term upside for Ford Motor after the company’s softer-than-expected outlook for this year. Ford exceeded Wall Street’s earnings and revenue expectations for the fourth quarter , but said that its 2025 guidance — which came out in line with or lower than many analysts’ estimates — “presumes headwinds related to market factors.” The company’s forecast includes a $1 billion reduction in material and warranty costs compared with last year — but not challenges tied to policies or tariffs from the new presidential administration , which have been a huge threat to automakers’ supply chains. Ford’s first half of 2025 is expected to be weaker than the latter. Ford shares dipped 6.4% in premarket trading Thursday on the results. Here’s what analysts had to say: Goldman Sachs reiterates buy rating and $11 price target Analyst Mark Delaney’s price target suggests 9.9% potential upside. He remains optimistic on Ford, noting that the automaker is making progress on its cost-saving efforts and that Ford’s “Pro” fleet businesses could benefit from the 2026 Ford Ranger Super Duty expected to launch in 2026. “The 2025 guide was lower than we had expected driven primarily by lower volumes and to a lesser extent FX. Our view that a solid US auto cycle, Pro, and software & services mix would result in relatively flattish EBIT was wrong. … Despite the weaker guide, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock as we expect profits to pick up from the lower 1H25 base.” Bernstein keeps market perform rating Analyst Daniel Roeska’s $10.70 price target suggests just about 6.9% upside ahead. “Ford reported a beat on Q4 earnings driven by its Blue segment, but planned production shutdowns in Q1 and market headwinds provide a challenging start for 2025 … The company expects first quarter 2025 adjusted EBIT to be roughly breakeven due to lower wholesales and unfavorable mix, including launch activity at major U.S. assembly plants. This is inline with our forecast, but already provides a material headwind to 2025.” Bank of America maintains buy rating, slashes price target to $15.50 from $19 Analyst John Murphy cut his price target on Ford shares, citing fourth-quarter results and 2025 guidance. But his new target still suggests shares could jump more than 54% from their latest close. “Despite lighter results ahead in 1H:25, management continued to paint a positive picture. Management called out Ford’s portfolio strength in its core truck market, especially in Pro, which is Core to the company and a priority for capital allocation. On top of the Core business, management reiterated potential growth opportunities in software and services, which continue to progress. Although 1H:25 is hit by a material changeover at the Kentucky Truck plant, we expect product cadence combined with management’s focus will support better profits and progress in 2H25+. Therefore, we reiterate our Buy rating.” Wells Fargo keeps underweight rating and $8 price target Analyst Colin Langan said “we don’t think optically lower implied y/y guide is conservative enough” and noted concerns about Ford’s free cash flow guidance, calling it “conspicuously weak.” Langan’s price target suggests roughly 20% downside ahead for shares. “There isn’t much to hang your hat on in 2025. EBIT is 2H weighted & relies on $1B of cost redux related to lower warranty & mat costs … Overall, we also see limited near-term catalysts, as normalization of new vehicle pricing and higher input costs likely offset expected volume increases.”