Former MLB stars in awe as Ohtani closes in on 50/50 milestone: ‘Literally changing the game’

The miracle of Shohei Ohtani is his extraordinary skill level at everything a baseball player does. Seven seasons into a career like no other, he hasn’t even shown them all.

“What he’s doing, he’s a freak of nature,” said Andruw Jones, who finished his standout career a decade ago in Japan. “I saw this kid at 18, 19 years old and I knew what kind of player he was. He didn’t stand out much as a hitter yet, but defensively, as an outfielder, he was very, very good. I would go out after batting practice, when they were taking infield, just to see him throw. He was that impressive.”

Maybe someday, Ohtani will play outfield in Major League Baseball and unleash throws like we’ve never seen. This season, though, has been a wholly unique showcase for his speed. Ohtani, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ wondrous designated hitter, has 48 home runs and 48 stolen bases through Tuesday, and should soon become the founding member of the 50/50 club.

48/48 FOR SHOHEI OHTANI! pic.twitter.com/QoXCvhkrHI

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) September 17, 2024

It’s another mind-bending trick from baseball’s master magician, who had never recorded more than 26 steals in a season, in the majors or Japan. And it’s even more amazing, perhaps, to players who have done one or the other, or both.

Just two players in MLB history have hit 50 homers and stolen 50 bases in any season, let alone the same one. One is Barry Bonds, who swiped 52 bases for Pittsburgh in 1990 and clubbed a record 73 homers for San Francisco in 2001. The other is Brady Anderson, who had 53 steals in 1992 and 50 home runs four years later, both for Baltimore.

Historically, far fewer players have hit 50 homers in a season than have stolen 50 bases. Even Ohtani has not done either just yet.

“When I did it, I think there were 14, and there’s probably over 30 now,” Anderson, who maintains a deep interest in baseball history, said of his 50-homer season. “But even if it’s 30 or 40, it’s still very few. I’m sure the number of guys stealing over 50 bases is in the hundreds. So the homer part is the hard part. And then, typically, guys that have 50 homers are bigger guys.”

Anderson was, indeed, the 14th different player to hit 50 home runs in a season. (Well more than 100 have stolen 50 bases.) While 31 players have now reached the mark, some of the game’s most celebrated sluggers — Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Albert Pujols — never did.

“It’s got to be a synched-up year where a lot of things go right,” said the New York Yankees’ Giancarlo Stanton, who connected 59 times for Miami in 2017, his only season with more than 37 home runs.

“You have to keep your balance and timing the whole year, not too many lulls. And even when you’re not feeling good, you’ve got to be able to have your few hits be homers; instead of having two singles in your 2-for-20-something stage, you’ve got to squeak out those as homers. The whole rhythm of your season has to go right.”

In 2021, the first of Ohtani’s two MVP seasons for the Los Angeles Angels, he homered just twice in his last 21 games to finish with 46. Last year, when he was MVP again, Ohtani hit his 44th and final homer on Aug. 23, before an elbow injury ended his season.

That injury, which required reconstructive surgery, has kept Ohtani from pitching or playing the field in 2024. It has made this the perfect season — and perhaps the only one — to maximize his speed.

“I think there’s going to come a point where the Dodgers are like: ‘We like the stolen bases, but cut it down to 25 or 30 and we can still win,’” said Juan Pierre, who had five seasons of 50 steals, tied with Carl Crawford for the most in the 2000s.

“It’s something I think (the Atlanta Braves) will do with (Ronald) Acuña (Jr.) as well. I don’t think he’ll steal 73 bases again. With his knees, they’re going to be like, ‘Look, you’re valuable to us, we’ll get somebody else to steal the bases.’ A lot of guys start out that way — like Matt Kemp — but as you get older, guys just shut it down, especially if you can hit for power. There’s no reason to be out there with a chance to get hurt.

“And once Ohtani starts pitching again, do you really want him running, maybe mess up his shoulder? I don’t think he could put up these numbers and pitch.”

Good assumption. As Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya on Sunday, “It’s a big, physical toll. I don’t see how he’d be able to do this if he were pitching. I don’t think he would.”

When Pierre stole 64 bases for the Dodgers in 2007, he hit zero home runs. Fourteen others have stolen 50 for the Dodgers, and the most homers by any of them was Davey Lopes’ 10 in 1974.

When Jones played for the Dodgers, in 2008, he had essentially stopped stealing bases. He had 56 steals in 1995, his last full minor-league season, but topped out at 27 in the majors. Only one Atlanta player — Otis Nixon in 1991 — ever had 50 steals during Bobby Cox’s quarter-century as Braves manager, and Jones prioritized defense, anyway.

“I wanted to save runs,” said Jones, who hit 51 homers for Atlanta in 2005 and won 10 Gold Gloves. “At my young age, I stole 20 every year, basically. But the older you get, it’s like, should I continue stealing or save my legs to run down fly balls in center field? My team counted on me for that.”

No player has ever had more than 24 stolen bases while also hitting 50 home runs. In Anderson’s big power season, he said, a torn quadriceps muscle limited him to 21 steals. Had Anderson been more of a running threat, though, pitchers might have worn him down with repeated throws to first.

“The beating was way worse on pickoff attempts than stolen bases,” Anderson said. “Ohtani’s a big guy and that could have worn him out, repetitive pickoff attempts.”

Since last season, pitchers have been limited to two disengagements from the rubber; if they try a third without picking off the runner, it counts as a balk. Yet even with that rule — and the bigger bases, which players believe has had little impact — just three players stole 50 bases last season, and only Cincinnati’s Elly De La Cruz has done so this season.

Baseball can change the rules, but not the risk-averse nature of the modern game. Two of the last four Dodgers with 50-steal seasons (Steve Sax in 1983 and Eric Young Jr. in 1999) had success rates of less than 70 percent.

“I’ll ask some guys today, ‘Hey, man, why don’t you steal more? The bag’s bigger, they can only throw over twice,’” said Pierre, who had a 75.1 percent career success rate but led the league in caught stealing seven times.

“And their biggest thing — and it’s not from the team, it’s from the guy — they’re like, ‘It’ll hurt my WAR if I get thrown out, so I don’t even want to take the risk.’ Wow, that’s something I would have never thought of. Those stats weren’t even around when I played, maybe on the back end of my career. But this is (Ohtani) saying, ‘If I’m gonna steal a base, I’m gonna make it.’”

To Anderson, Ohtani’s success rate — 48 for 52, for 92.3 percent — stands out most. Only two players in history (Max Carey in 1922 and Jacoby Ellsbury in 2013) have stolen 50 in a season without being caught at least five times.

“If he doesn’t steal another base this entire year, 47 and four — that’s unusual in the history of this game,” Anderson said last week, before Ohtani stole his 48th base. “I mean, 40 and 10 is great, and he’s 47 and four. That’s Carlos Beltran stuff.”

Beltran — who had 312 career steals with an 86.4 percent success rate — peaked at 42 steals in 2004 and 41 homers two years later. With today’s disengagement rules, Anderson said, Beltran might have had a 50/50 season. But the best candidate, perhaps, was Eric Davis.

Davis had it all — except durability. After a 27-homer, 80-steal season for Cincinnati in 1986, he slammed 37 homers with 50 steals in 1987. But in a 17-year career, Davis never played more than 135 games. He spent his prime on the unforgiving AstroTurf of Riverfront Stadium.

“It was a double-edged sword, because that old turf, that’s the best thing ever for stealing bases,” Anderson said. “You’re so much faster with that little synthetic turf laying on top of cement. It beats you up, but definitely it’s a faster track.”

Primitive turf surfaces are long gone, of course, and Dodger Stadium has natural grass. Ohtani’s spikes never touch it in fair territory, since he never plays defense, but that presents its own challenge as a base stealer.

“He doesn’t have to run on the field and stand out in the elements, but what he does, I think, would be hard as well — sitting and then having to go out there and run,” Pierre said. “I’m sure he rides the bike and does his exercise, but it’s still not like on defense to keep you loose.”

No pitching, no fielding, no AstroTurf, no endless pickoff attempts — no matter. To those with the power or speed to put a 50 on their stat sheets, it’s still a stupendous feat to deploy both skills so prodigiously at once.

And remember this: All those homers cost Ohtani some steals, too.

“Hitting 50 home runs, that’s 50 less times you’ve got to do anything on the bases,” Pierre said. “He’s just trotting, so he’s good.”

Pierre laughed. The Dodgers are in Miami this week, not far from Pierre’s home. He’s never seen Ohtani play, and thinks he might check out the show.

“You almost get jealous, like how could you be that fast and then hit the ball 500 feet?” said Pierre, who hit 18 home runs in 14 seasons. “It’s just not fair, the things he’s doing. He’s literally changing the game.”

(Top photo of Shohei Ohtani: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)