How Max Verstappen can win the drivers’ championship in Las Vegas and light up F1’s glitziest race

This article is part of the “Beyond the Track” series, a dive on the surrounding scene, glamor and culture that makes a Grand Prix.

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Max Verstappen’s fightback from 17th on the grid to win Sunday’s Sao Paulo Grand Prix will go down as one of the most important victories of his Formula One career.

Not only did it snap a 10-race streak without a victory (practically a lifetime by Verstappen’s standards), but as Lando Norris slipped from pole position to only finish sixth, the win also put Verstappen on the brink of clinching his fourth world championship.

It was a huge power shift, extinguishing hope that Norris could keep the title race alive to the finale in Abu Dhabi. And now, Verstappen could be crowned champion at the Las Vegas Grand Prix on Nov. 23.

Last year’s first running of the race along the famed Las Vegas Strip was a major milestone for F1. The sport spent over half a billion dollars to make the event happen, including a new, permanent paddock building that serves as its home in the United States, as well as serving as the promoter to run the grand prix. The circuit made sure to incorporate the famed Strip and Sphere, creating a spectacular visual event against the night sky.

Despite a difficult start to the race weekend with the cancellation of first practice and frustration over the scheduling, Las Vegas was one of the best races of the season, including an open fight for the lead that went down to the final laps and universal praise for the high-speed street track layout.

Verstappen, an early critic of the race for being “99 percent show and one percent sporting event,” sang “Viva Las Vegas” over his radio after crossing the line. Even he bought into the spectacle that had doubled down on being truly Vegas.

Although there are plans to tone down some off-track demands on the drivers and focus more on the local community, the current championship picture means Las Vegas has a chance to secure a place in F1 history.

Unlike last year, when Verstappen clinched the title four races earlier in Qatar, Las Vegas now must consider how to prepare for Verstappen’s coronation as a four-time world champion.

And the organizers would likely make it a championship celebration to remember.

How Verstappen can win the championship in Las Vegas

There is a straightforward scenario for Verstappen to secure the championship in Las Vegas: beat Norris in the race on Saturday night.

Verstappen is 62 points clear, with 86 still available in the drivers’ championship. If he is 60 points ahead of Norris by the end of the Las Vegas Grand Prix race weekend, then the title race is over.

Norris, the in-form driver before his difficult Sunday in Brazil, can keep the championship going to Qatar the following week by winning in Las Vegas. Finishing second or third would also stave off a title defeat, so long as Verstappen finishes behind and does not score the fastest lap bonus point. If Norris finishes between fourth and seventh, he would need to cross the line two places clear of Verstappen to keep the championship going.

The upshot of the place permutations is that Norris must outscore Verstappen by three points to carry things on to Qatar.

If Norris can put in the same kind of dominant display as he did in Singapore (F1’s most recent street race, where he won by 20 seconds), then it would put plans for a Las Vegas championship celebration on ice. Verstappen would face the prospect of clinching the title in Qatar for a second consecutive year.

But a team to watch out for in Las Vegas is Ferrari. Charles Leclerc led the team to a 1-2 finish at last month’s United States Grand Prix before teammate Carlos Sainz dominated in Mexico en route to victory. The Las Vegas track layout, complete with some tight, technical corners, should suit the strengths of the Ferrari car in a similar fashion to the circuit in Mexico. Leclerc took pole position last year in Las Vegas and was in contention for victory until the closing stages, eventually pulling off a last-lap overtake on Sergio Pérez to grab second place.

Ferrari’s form and Red Bull’s recent struggles in dry conditions mean that Verstappen wrapping up the title in Las Vegas is no sure thing. Post-race in Brazil, where the wet weather certainly helped his case, Verstappen seemed more optimistic about the team’s performance than he had been lately.

“I’m confident for the last three races that we can fight again, and especially in the race that we will be more competitive,” he said.

A dream scenario for Las Vegas

Any grand prix would love the status of being the race where a championship is won. But the thought of Verstappen clinching the championship in Las Vegas will excite many within F1.

Despite criticism from local groups over the disruption caused by the race’s lead-up and some fans’ frustration over the price of attending, last year’s first running of the Las Vegas Grand Prix was a huge commercial success for both F1 and the city.

A study by Clark County reported an estimated economic impact of $1.5 billion, over half of which was fueled by visitor spending. From a wider cultural perspective, a primetime Saturday night slot, starting at 10 p.m. PT, put F1 up there with the top sporting properties in Las Vegas and boasted a celebrity pull that took the race beyond its usual realms of coverage.

Las Vegas wanted to put on a show unlike anything F1 had ever seen. As impressive as the race looked on TV and for those on the ground, there was no substitute for the on-track product: a spectacular race that included plenty of overtakes and an open fight for the victory, even if it ended in yet another Verstappen win, excited fans and meant the event lived up to the considerable hype.

F1’s improved competitive picture compared to 2023, when a Verstappen victory was almost accepted as part of proceedings, has already resulted in a boost for several circuits. Bobby Epstein, the chairman of the Circuit of The Americas in Austin, said that when Verstappen’s 2024 domination ended this summer, the track saw an uptick in ticket sales for the United States GP in October. It ended up being a sell-out event.

The same boost is likely to help Las Vegas. The race organizers have always claimed that Las Vegas is often a last-minute market, and there was a later marketing push for this year’s race that started in earnest with 100 days to go. That build-up of late interest may accelerate with the possibility of it being the championship decider.

It would also give the race organizers the chance to give a distinctly Las Vegas flavor to any championship celebrations. Following last year’s grand prix, the top three finishers were chauffered in a limo from parc ferme to the Bellagio, where they conducted interviews in front of the famed fountain before returning to the grid for the podium ceremony as a huge fireworks display erupted over the city.

Given the involvement of the local casinos, who are partners of the event, and their penchant for high-end hospitality and, where required, extravagance, getting involved in any potential championship celebrations will be highly appealing. There will be a degree of gambling involved – fittingly for Las Vegas – in how thorough any preparations for marking the championship win will be, considering it’s far from a sure thing for Verstappen.

Las Vegas is leaning on the fact it has a “playbook” and hasn’t required the same kind of disruption as last year to get the track complete going into year two. It now wants to be a race for everybody, focusing on accessibility. But given the enormity of the effort by F1 to make the race happen and the white-hot spotlight that was placed upon Las Vegas last year, to add in the coronation of a champion in what has been a classic season will inevitably be a huge source of excitement to the organizers – and the fans planning to attend.

For Verstappen, he doesn’t care where the championship is won. So long as he does it.

“I just want clean races to the end,” he said after his Brazil win. “I’m not thinking about clinching the championship in Vegas or whatever. I just want clean races.”

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Top photo: Chris Graythen/Getty Images