How NCAA rule to admit CHL players could create butterfly effect across hockey

The winds of change continue to swirl around the NCAA as the governing body for U.S. collegiate sports opened the door Thursday for Canadian Hockey League players to join their squads.

For the past few decades, once a player suited up for a team in the CHL — where NHL teams often place draft picks to help them develop — they were considered a professional and were off-limits to play at a U.S. college by the National Collegiate Athletics Association.

The professional designation might have been harsh as most CHL players are given a scholarship for when their careers come to an end as well as a small weekly stipend.

“The way that the NCAA tended to look at this is, if you are playing alongside someone who has signed a professional contract, then you are a professional,” said London Knights radio voice Mike Stubbs.

Being a pro in the eyes of the NCAA meant players as young as 16 were forced to choose between playing in the CHL or in lower tier leagues in an effort to remain amateurs in the eyes of the NCAA.

While this week’s  change was likely inevitable with the NCAA allowing players to be paid through the Name, Image and Likeness (NIL) deals, Tyler Kuehl, who writes for College Hockey News, said there were a couple of recent events that sped the process up.

“Rylan Masterson, the Junior B player, a proposed class action against the NCAA and 10 of its schools that they violate antitrust laws for not allowing major junior players to play NCAA,” he said in the hours leading up to the NCAA announcement.

Masterson had played a pair of exhibition games with the OHL’s Windsor Spitfires when he was 16 years old and was then previously disqualified from playing in the NCAA.

In addition, Regina Pats’ Braxton Whitehead had announced that he was going to suit up for the Arizona State Sun Devils next year. The overage forward from Alaska had made the announcement last fall in advance of playing one final season in the WHL.

Immediate impact

The NCAA’s decision is expected to have a butterfly effect, causing changes to a number of other hockey leagues as well as at Canadian universities.

Within hours of the ruling, Kitchener Rangers overage goalie Jackson Parsons had committed to play at Clarkson University next fall, which could just be the beginning of a trend.

As well, at least one player, Hayden Reid, recently left the USHL to play for the Flint Firebirds as Blake Montgomery had reportedly left the Lincoln Stars to become a London Knight. The Knights have not made that official yet.

How could the rule change affect the OHL?

In the past, most of the top Canadian kids would stay in Canada to play in the OHL whereas many Americans would stay south of the border to play college hockey, according to Kitchener Rangers general manager Mike McKenzie.

“There’s always, you know, exceptions to the rule where there’s some Ontario kids that choose to go down the other path and there’s some U.S. kids that used to come down our path,” he said.

Saginaw Spirit president Craig Goslin said that the CHL was able to get many of the elite players in the past and believes the change could lead to more suiting up for them as well.

“That’s been one of the major challenges for us recruiting top players, for players that still get their options open, they would go to the USHL or to another league and then potentially come to the OHL later,” he said. “And now those athletes will more than likely look at the OHL as their first choice.”

Both McKenzie and Goslin believe it will be a positive for the players who are now free to make their decisions about the NCAA when they are older.

“At the end of the day, it’s going to be good for players and families to have options, to look at different avenues for whatever kind of suits their needs,” McKenzie said.

The Rangers GM is well aware of the differences between the junior and NCAA brands of hockey, having played four seasons with St. Lawrence University.

“There’s there’s very few 18 year olds in the NCAA, and the majority of the NCAA is 19 to 23 year olds,” he said. “Personally, I went when I was 20 years old, finished when I was 24.”

https://x.com/TheWHL/status/1854641235069391093

For most OHL players, their final season comes when they are 19 years old and they should have a decent idea of whether they are NHL-bound, according to Goslin.

“Now this gives this player a chance to go and play three or four years at an elite NCAA institution to continue working on his game or at the same time getting a high level of education,” he said.

Stubbs also pointed out that what is best for a player who is 16 years old may change as they grow older.

“This allows everything to stay open for a player and they can then choose what’s best for them at the time, and then as they go along, what’s best for them at other times when they’re 17, when they’re 18, when they’re 20,” he said.

McKenzie and Goslin say their teams are ready to make adjustments in their operations in order to adjust to the rules changes.

The Spirit president says that his squad has been prepping players to be pros in the past but will also have to look closer at how it prepares players for college as well.

“Now we’re going to have to make an adjustment to prepare our players to also be able to play in the NCAA, which is going to also have some significant education components to it,” Goslin said.

OHL players prime years are when they are 18 and 19 years old, which will also be the time that youngsters will have graduated high school and are able to enter into college, which means clubs will have to look to avoid having players exit early.

McKenzie said that while his club has always tried to make sure the players feel a great connection to their time in Kitchener, they will have to try and step up their development and off-ice game.

“So, when we do get players here, it’s such a good experience that at the end of the day they don’t want to leave,” he said.

The elephant in the room for the CHL teams will be the NIL money as some NCAA hockey players are reportedly making six figures which means athletes are going to have to make a decision on whether to head to U.S. schools or remain in the CHL.

“It’s exactly the thing that the OHL right now can’t compete with,” Stubbs said. “They cannot pay their players other than the stipend that they get. Which is basically gas money.”

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But that should not have much of an effect on most of the current CHL players, who are Canadian, and therefore not permitted to collect as much money on student visas.

“I don’t see it as being a major challenge for it for the other teams,” Goslin said. “But it’s certainly going to be something that’s going to be on the radar.”

Stubbs also pointed out that given the age, CHL teams will have an opportunity to get kids in and show them what they have to offer before the players are eligible to play in US.

How will it affect the NCAA

So while some players at some of the bigger institutions are reportedly taking home six figures, not all schools are created equal and have the same funds to offer from boosters, according to Kuehl.

“It really it really does depend on the school for NIL deals,” he said.

The college hockey writer cautioned that in most cases, hockey is not the top money draw at schools which could limit the impact of NIL deals.

He believes there is a chance that the number of schools who offer hockey might increase with the addition of a bigger talent pool.

“Some schools down here in the states might add hockey programs if more of these players can come down,” he said as there are only currently around 60 Division 1 teams.

Those schools will also be faced with a plethora of new recruiting challenges as they will have to consider whether to recruit high school or junior hockey kids going forward.

How about the NHL?

Once a player is drafted into the NHL, the teams usually have a say in how a player develops and teams will have to decide which route would be best for a prospect’s development.

“The other thing would have to consider is what the NHL deems the best way for their prospects to develop,” Stubbs said. “Maybe they want the kids to play more games in the OHL or against the bigger bodies in college.”

Stubbs also noted, “The OHL and the other major-junior leagues offer a schedule that’s a whole lot closer to what the NHL is like.”

A third option is to send older players to the AHL but that would also depend on the ages and nationalities of the players. Once again, they would play a similar schedule to the NHL.

In addition, the NHL is also going to have some rights issues for prospects to consider as well.

“If a CHL player gets drafted, if they don’t sign with the national team in two years, they become a free agent,” Kuehl said. ”College hockey, if you wait the full four years, you can leave as a free agent.”

So the question becomes, what happens to a CHL player who leaves to play in the NCAA a year after being drafted?

What about the other leagues?

Until the change, if a player wanted to play NCAA hockey, there were still a number of avenues to play junior hockey.

Many players would head to the USHL, BCHL or other junior leagues, which are a tier below CHL, to play before  they graduated high school and embarked on collegiate careers.

Some, like Toronto native Adam Valentini, have chosen to play for the Chicago Steel of the USHL as he is committed to play at University of Michigan despite being picked in the first round of the OHL draft.

Will players continue to head to these lower leagues before they play NCAA or will that well dry up?

“I think that’s going to be that is going to be the challenge for the USHL is getting players of his ilk to be able to report there,” Goslin said.

Another area that could see a downturn in its talent level will be Canadian universities.

“I think one of the big losers in this stands to be Canadian university hockey because if players can get scholarships to go to the States, I think they might be more likely to do that before choosing a Canadian school,” Stubbs said.

But he also noted that there won’t likely be a lack of players to go around.

“We have the same number (of players) and they all find homes now and the same number are going to find homes again,” he said.