Katie Stockton has an under-the-radar way to play the comeback in wheat and other soft commodities
Agricultural commodities have seen intermediate-term momentum shift positively as they advance from long-term lows. This has been an emerging technical theme that we are attracted to with volatility having picked up in the equity market. Last month on Fast Money and in the Fairlead Strategies Idea Generator , we highlighted agricultural commodity ETFs like the Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN) and the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) as oversold opportunities. Agricultural commodities look ready to extend higher following a couple weeks of healthy consolidation, so we are revisiting the charts to leverage a bigger counter-trend move. An example of one agricultural commodity with a bullish momentum shift is wheat, expressed via the Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT) . Note WEAT recently cleared initial resistance at its 10-week moving average, resulting in upward shifts in the weekly MACD and stochastics. The bullish intermediate-term shift comes after a successful test of long-term support going back to 2019, near $4.90. The stochastics are not yet overbought, increasing the likelihood that the up-move has more room. The weekly cloud model (shaded area on the chart) is key resistance for WEAT, currently near $6.20, above which WEAT would reverse its long-term downtrend. An alternative way to express a bullish view on agricultural commodities is via equities with exposure to agriculture. One name in the S & P 500 that qualifies is crop chemical company, Corteva (CTVA) . CTVA has established a higher low on its chart above the weekly cloud, which now serves as support for a bullish turnaround phase. Intermediate-term momentum is positive per the weekly MACD, and the upward slope of the 40-week and 200-day moving averages suggests that long-term momentum has shifted positive as well. Given the bullish prospects over the next several weeks for commodities like wheat, in addition to positive momentum in CTVA itself, we think Fibonacci resistance near $59 appears surmountable, which would project an intermediate-term measured move price objective of roughly $65. Long-term support for CTVA is at the weekly cloud and 40-week moving average, which converge near $53, although we would consider using the rising 50-day moving average as a trailing stop-loss for long positions. —Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . DISCLOSURES: (None) All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . 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