Lilly lifts annual sales forecast by $3 billion as weight-loss drug powers results, ET HealthWorld

By Bhanvi Satija and Sriparna Roy

London: Eli Lilly raised its annual sales forecast by $3 billion on Thursday, driven by surging demand and ramped up manufacturing capacity for its popular weight-loss drug Zepbound, lifting its shares more than 10 per cent premarket.

The drugmaker also raised its annual profit forecast and said sales of its Zepbound crossed $1 billion for the first time in a quarter.

The milestone for Zepbound comes a day after Danish rival Novo Nordisk reported a rare miss on quarterly sales of its weight-loss drug Wegovy and trimmed its full-year profit forecast.

Lilly and Novo are racing to increase manufacturing capacity to meet unprecedented demand for their popular weight-loss drugs that have been shown to help patients lose as much as 20 per cent of their weight on average.

Analysts have said the companies will likely split the U.S. market roughly 50-50 by the end of 2024, as Lilly bolsters its manufacturing capacity and closes the gap with Novo.

Lilly has said it expected manufacturing in its new production lines to start over 2024 and for a new plant in Concord, North Carolina, to begin operations towards the end of the year.

It has invested an additional $5.3 billion in May on a manufacturing site in Indiana for production of tirzepatide, the active ingredient in Zepbound, as well as its diabetes drug Mounjaro.

The drugmaker said on Thursday it plans to launch 2.5 milligrams and 5 milligrams single-dose vials of Zepbound in the U.S. in the coming weeks.

Investor interest in these therapies has propelled Lilly’s market value to more than $700 billion. The stock has risen about 32% so far this year. Some analysts expect the market for weight-loss treatments to hit $150 billion by the early 2030s.

Quarterly sales of Mounjaro came in at $3.09 billion, while Zepbound raked in $1.24 billion.

Analysts had on average predicted sales of $2.49 billion for Mounjaro and $930.8 million for Zepbound. They expect the drugs to make a combined $15 billion this year.

As Lilly’s supply for both Mounjaro and Zepbound increased during the quarter, the company said it was able to backfill orders and increase stocks at wholesalers. The latter accounted for the high-teens to mid-20% range of U.S. sales.

About 27% of the company’s overall sales increase in the U.S. came from more volumes, and 15% came from realized prices. In the year-ago quarter, Lilly had offered discounted Mounjaro to customers.

Both Wegovy and Zepbound have been in shortage this year, according to the U.S. FDA’s website, although the agency recently said all doses of Zepbound were now available but did not remove the treatment from the shortage list.

Lilly said while supply and demand have come into better balance, expected increases in demand could result in periodic supply tightness for certain dose levels for its diabetes and weight-loss drugs.

The drugmaker now expects 2024 adjusted profit of $16.10 to $16.60 per share, compared with its prior forecast of $13.50 to $14.

Lilly projected overall revenues to be $45.4 billion to $46.6 billion, compared with its earlier expectations of $42.4 billion to $43.6 billion.

(Reporting by Bhanvi Satija and Sriparna Roy in Bengaluru and Patrick Wingrove in New York; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila)