Millions in Ontario expected to live with a major illness by 2040: report

Over a span of 20 years, the number of adults living with a major illness in Ontario is expected to nearly double, a new report from the University of Toronto warns.

The study by the university’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health, published in collaboration with the Ontario Hospital Association, finds that millions more Ontarians will be living with chronic illness by 2040.

The study projects that 3.1 million adults will be living with major illness in Ontario in 2040, up from 1.8 million in 2020.

The study’s authors also project that approximately one in four adults over the age of 30 will live with a major illness in 2040, requiring significant hospital care, up from approximately one in eight individuals in 2002.

“As we look to the future, it’s clear that Ontario’s reached a turning point,” said Anthony Dale, president and CEO of the Ontario Hospital Association. “Ontario’s health system is already grappling with rapid population growth, increasingly complex health needs and intense pressures on existing capacity. These findings confirm that maintaining the status quo is not an option. Health care in Ontario needs an innovation revolution. Without it, the system won’t be able to cope.”

In addition to more people living with major illnesses, researchers predict that the number of illnesses any individual will be living with will also increase significantly.

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They say that conditions expected to increase the most in number are those that increase with age, including osteoarthritis, diabetes and cancer.

Researchers say that having multiple chronic conditions is a major driver of demand for health services and is costly for hospitals.

“Planning for sustainable and equitable health care that’s responsive to emerging trends requires projections of what chronic disease rates are likely to be in the future,” said Adalsteinn Brown, dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health and co-author of the study.

“Our projections suggest that more Ontarians will be living with major illness, and the number of cases will rise for many chronic conditions. Given these findings, it’s clear that new solutions are needed now, including significant efforts in chronic disease prevention and management.”

The study, Projected Patterns of Illness in Ontario, represents the most recent comprehensive public report to quantify chronic disease and multimorbidity in the Ontario population.

Researchers looked at factors like age and sex-specific demographic projections with historical chronic disease trends to model the burden of illness in the population in the future.

Canadians are living longer, with life expectancy growing to 81.5 years as of 2020 to 2022, which researchers say contributes significantly to the estimated increases, along with underlying structural and social determinants of health and an increase in chronic disease risk factors.

The population of Ontario is also projected to grow by 36 per cent over the next 20 years, with the largest increase happening in the 65 and older age group.

The study calls on the Ontario health system to take immediate action and to “aggressively focus on prevention, early detection and effective treatment of chronic disease.”

The study is also calling for Ontario to develop a long-term health services capacity plan, so the province can meet the needs of its rapidly growing and aging population, and to expand services that support and encourage seniors to age at home.

“Over the past several decades it is biomedical and technological innovation that has driven clinical improvements, cost savings and improved access to care in hospital settings,” Dale said.

“And now, artificial intelligence, gene therapy and personalized medicine are demonstrating astonishing potential. Working together and embracing innovation in all its forms, we can create a future with less disease, better treatment and universal access to care. It’s within our reach.”

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