MLB Trade Grades: Baltimore gives up a lot for Trevor Rogers — was it worth it?

By Sam Blum, Brittany Ghiroli and Stephen J. Nesbitt

Baltimore Orioles get: LHP Trevor Rogers 

Miami Marlins get: OF Kyle Stowers and IF Connor Norby

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Sam Blum: What a get for the Miami Marlins. Norby is one of the Orioles’ top prospects and was recently called up to the big leagues.

Rogers is valuable as a left-handed starter under team control through 2026. That said, the 26-year-old hasn’t been very good. Outside of his All-Star 2021 season, he’s been a below-league-average starter. On top of that, many of his expected numbers this year are worse than his already not-great stats.

His walk rate has jumped from 8.4 percent in 2021 to 9.7 percent this year. His average exit velocity jumped from 87.7 mph in 2021 to 90.5. Both are well above the league average. He also missed most of last season with an arm injury.

That said, left-handed starters are in short supply. And the Orioles need starting pitching depth. John Means and Kyle Bradish are both out, Albert Suarez has regressed in July and Cole Irvin has moved to the bullpen.

This is still a pretty huge overpay. With the hours ticking and the market shrinking, it appears they decided to subtract from their prospect wealth to add in a position of need. Such is the luxury of drafting and developing so many capable prospects.

Norby hasn’t produced in his first nine big-league games. But he’s projected to be a very solid big-league player with a decent amount of pop. Kyle Stowers will now theoretically get his chance in the majors. The 2019 second-round selection was fairly productive in 19 games with the big-league club this season.

The Orioles should have landed a better starting pitcher with this haul. Perhaps no such options remained. But kudos to the Marlins for capitalizing on this seller’s market and getting back two players who could be a key part of their future.

Marlins: A
Orioles: D

Orioles acquiring LHP Trevor Rogers from the Marlins, source tells @TheAthletic.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 30, 2024

Brittany Ghiroli: I am a little underwhelmed by this deal for Baltimore, which, at first blush, looks like a boon for Miami. The O’s were interested in multiple Marlins pitchers and Rogers, outside of being a guy who can give them innings, is a bit of a reclamation project for an organization that has been excellent at developing hitters but has yet to replicate that success on the big-league pitching side.

Last year, the Orioles banked on Jack Flaherty pitching better in Baltimore and that was a disaster. Perhaps the front office sees something it can do with Rogers, but the price was fairly high. Stowers is a big-league-ready player who was simply the odd man out in a numbers game. Norby was with the big-league team and was the Orioles’ fifth-best prospect, which means he could have cracked the top three on many teams’ rankings given how deep Baltimore’s farm is. Sure, Stowers didn’t have a role with the big-league club and was being dangled in the days leading up to the deadline. And it is a seller’s market, as we’ve seen with other moves. It still feels like the Orioles overpaid here and Baltimore fans can only hope there are more moves in the holster.

Orioles: C+
Marlins: A

Stephen J. Nesbitt: Well, it’s not Tarik Skubal or Garrett Crochet, but the Orioles have found the lefty to balance their rotation, adding Rogers alongside fellow newcomer Zach Eflin, ace Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer. The belief is that Rogers’ best days are ahead and, more specifically, outside of Miami. He often didn’t pitch well there. Rogers had a 4.69 ERA at home, and a 3.84 ERA away. Pitching at Camden Yards, with its expanded left field, should do him some favors against right-handed pull hitters. 

Rogers was an All-Star and Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2021, but hit a wall the next year, more than doubling his ERA to 5.47. He has pitched well lately, making this an ideal time for the rebuilding Marlins to cash in on the inherent value for a starter under club control through 2026. We’ve been waiting for years for Miami to move more of its starting pitchers to strengthen the lineup — like they did last spring, trading Pablo López for Luis Arraez — but this trade wasn’t the one I saw coming that would get the Orioles to give up a couple position player prospects.

Baltimore is giving up a lot for a guy who wouldn’t currently project to start for them in the postseason. At the time of this trade, Baseball America ranks Norby, who was the No. 7 prospect in their system, the second-best prospect traded so far at this deadline. Stowers, a second-rounder in 2019, has hit well in limited time in the majors, but, as with Norby, is blocked in the Orioles system. Controllable pitching is pricey. But this is more than I’d have been comfortable trading for a starter whose standout rookie season looks like an outlier.

Marlins: A
Orioles: C

 

(Photo of Rogers: Rich Storry / Getty Images)