Moderna reins in 2024 sales forecast, expects very low EU vaccine revenue, ET HealthWorld

By Patrick Wingrove

London: Moderna on Thursday cut its 2024 sales forecast for COVID-19 and respiratory syncytial virus vaccines by up to 25 per cent, or $1 billion, as it expects very low sales to the EU, sending shares of the vaccine maker down nearly 14 per cent before the bell.

The company had previously said it expected roughly $4 billion in sales for the year, which was already the lowest figure for annual revenue since it launched its COVID vaccine in late 2020 – the company’s first commercial product.

Moderna reported a net loss of $1.3 billion, or $3.33 per share, for the second quarter. Analysts had expected a loss of $3.39 per share, according to LSEG data.

Total revenue for the second quarter was $241 million, compared to $344 million, a year ago.

Chief Financial Officer James Mock told Reuters it had yet to secure a joint purchasing agreement with the EU, although it was still in discussions.

“Given where we are in the season combined with where we are in the budget season for many countries and their existing supplies, we feel there’s a very low probability that we’ll have very much (EU) sales in 2024,” he said.

The company said it now expects to make between $3 billion and $3.5 billion in sales for the year following discussions with EU officials over COVID-19 vaccine contracts for the bloc.

The forecast would bring Moderna’s gross margins lower, and with operating expenses unchanged in 2024, its “net loss and cash burn net goes up even more, which is already an investor concern”, said Jefferies analyst Michael Yee in a note.

Moderna said it had also cut its forecast due to potential revenue deferrals for some COVID international sales into 2025 and an increasingly competitive environment for both COVID and RSV vaccines in the U.S.

Those deferrals were one of the biggest factors in the $500 million range Moderna gave in its new 2024 sales forecast, the CFO said.

Moderna has been banking of revenue from newer mRNA shots, including its RSV vaccine mRESVIA and an experimental COVID-flu combination vaccine, to make up for waning demand for its COVID-19 shot.

Mock said the company still expects to return to sales growth in 2025.

Analysts this week said they expected sales of Moderna’s mRESVIA, its second approved product, to lag RSV shots from rival drugmakers Pfizer and GSK this year.

They forecast $370 million in 2024 sales of mRESVIA, which was approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on May 31, compared with a combined $1.2 billion for the GSK and Pfizer RSV shots, according to LSEG data.

Moderna said it started shipping doses of mRESVIA in the U.S. last month, following June recommendations from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that RSV shots be given to adults aged 60 and over who did not get a vaccine last year.

Sales of Moderna’s Spikevax COVID-19 vaccine were $184 million for the quarter, down 37 per cent on the previous year but well ahead of analysts’ average estimates of $66.42 million.

(Reporting by Patrick Wingrove in New York and Leroy Leo in Bengaluru; Editing by Caroline Humer, Bill Berkrot and Arun Koyyur)