NFL divisional round top storylines: Chiefs resume Super Bowl quest; huge stakes in Ravens-Bills

The Athletic has live coverage of Texans vs Chiefs  in the AFC divisional round playoffs.

One of the best weekends of the NFL postseason has arrived. After a wild-card round that turned largely into a blowout affair, the divisional round includes more compelling matchups.

The action kicks off Saturday with the Houston Texans visiting the Kansas City Chiefs, followed by the Washington Commanders at the Detroit Lions. Sunday features the Los Angeles Rams at the Philadelphia Eagles, and then a grand finale in Buffalo between the Bills and the Baltimore Ravens and two MVP candidates in quarterbacks Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.

Here are the leading storylines to follow this round.

Pressure on Mahomes and the Chiefs

AFC No. 4 Houston Texans at No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET

After receiving a bye in the wild-card round, the Chiefs (15-2) resume their quest for an unprecedented third consecutive Lombardi Trophy. They welcome in the Texans, who crushed the Los Angeles Chargers 32-12 to advance to the divisional round.

Some fans and analysts are down on the Chiefs this year because they haven’t delivered the prolific offensive performances we’ve come to expect from them. What they have delivered, however, is an impressive string of clutch performances: wins in 16 consecutive games decided by one score. Injuries at wide receiver diminished Kansas City’s firepower this season, yet Andy Reid and his charges have continued to thrive. The recipe for success for this iteration of the Chiefs: Lean heavily on an imposing defense that has kept the Chiefs in games, get the ball in the hands of Patrick Mahomes late and let the All-World quarterback deliver his signature heroics.

The Chiefs and Texans just played each other, in Week 16. Kansas City prevailed 27-19 after forcing C.J. Stroud into two first-half interceptions. Mahomes, meanwhile, passed for a touchdown and rushed for another. Can the Texans deliver a different outcome Saturday?

Ball security is key, as is Houston’s ability to disrupt Mahomes. Houston’s defense would like to carry over the momentum gained in last week’s win over L.A. The Texans sacked Justin Herbert four times, recorded nine quarterback hits and forced him into four interceptions. Leading the way: edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. Offensive tackle has been one of the Chiefs’ shakier positions. Three players have played left tackle, and a fourth — D.J. Humphries, signed in late November — may get the nod Saturday over converted guard Joe Thuney.

Mahomes this season has been sacked a career-high 36 times, and through 13 weeks, opponents sacked him an average of 2.69 times per game. Kansas City’s line finished the season on a stronger note, as Mahomes was sacked just once in his final three games. Mahomes is, however, excellent under pressure. When facing five pass rushers or more, his passer rating increases from 109.0 to 116.5. He also has thrown 23 touchdowns and just one interception when facing the blitz.

Commanders, Lions aggressive revivals

NFC No. 6 Washington Commanders at No. 1 Detroit Lions
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET

For decades, football fans in Washington and Detroit suffered through horrendous seasons, continuous coaching carousels, organizational dysfunction and on-field blunders that made their teams the laughingstocks of the NFL.

In 2021, however, Dan Campbell took the reins of the Lions, changed the culture, instilled a winning mindset and now coaches a team heavily favored to reach the Super Bowl. Dan Quinn took over in Washington this season. Similar to Campbell, Quinn has brought a fresh approach to the long-suffering franchise, making his Commanders one of the most surprising success stories of this season.

These teams meet Saturday night in the Motor City. The Lions resume their quest for the franchise’s first Super Bowl trip following last week’s bye, and the Commanders try to keep the magic flowing a week after upsetting Tampa Bay 23-20 in a thrilling wild-card victory.

Look for the Lions and Commanders to light up the scoreboard. The Lions entered the postseason averaging an NFL-high 33.2 points per game. The Commanders ranked fifth, averaging 28.5 points per contest. Jared Goff leads the way for the Lions, ranking second in the NFL in the regular season with 4,629 passing yards to go with 37 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Commanders rookie Jayden Daniels was electric while passing for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns and just nine interceptions. He also rushed for 891 yards and six touchdowns.

The similarities don’t stop there. Campbell and Quinn are among the most aggressive coaches in the league because of their willingness to go for it on fourth down — even while possessing the ball in their own territory. Washington succeeded on 87 percent of its fourth-down attempts in the regular season, leading the NFL. Detroit converted 66.7 percent of its fourth downs, tied for seventh-best.

The Commanders converted three of five fourth-down attempts last week against the Bucs, and didn’t punt once.

An aggressive fourth-down approach proved costly for the Lions in last season’s NFC Championship Game against San Francisco. Detroit converted just one of three attempts, and the two failed attempts were within field-goal range. The Lions lost 34-31. Campbell declared afterward he had no regrets, and he has remained just as aggressive this season.

Campbell’s Lions are favored by 9.5 points and experience could serve Goff and his teammates well. Given the way Daniels has delivered in the biggest moments of the season, though, it would not be surprising to see him keep the Commanders within reach.

And if the game is on the line late, look for both head coaches to go for broke.

Will the real Rams please stand up?

NFC No. 4 L.A. Rams at No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET

The Rams try to carry the momentum from last week’s authoritative 27-9 win over the Minnesota Vikings into Philadelphia, where the Eagles beat the Green Bay Packers 22-10 in the wild-card round.

It’s the second meeting of the season between the Rams and Eagles. The last time they met, in Week 12, the Eagles delivered a dominant 37-20 victory and Saquon Barkley gashed the Rams for a franchise-record 255 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries. Wide receiver A.J. Brown added 109 receiving yards and a touchdown on six receptions. Meanwhile, the Eagles defense rocked Matthew Stafford, sacking him five times, recording 11 quarterback hits and denying the Rams on all eight of their third-down attempts.

If the Eagles can deliver a similarly well-rounded performance Sunday, a spot in the NFC Championship Game is as good as theirs. But the biggest question is which Rams team shows up Sunday.

L.A.’s defense has improved as the season has progressed. Since that thumping by Barkley and the Eagles, the Rams have allowed an average of just 104.1 rushing yards and 17 points in the six regular-season and one playoff game that have followed. Young players like Jared Verse, Kobie Turner, Byron Young and Braden Fiske appear to have grown into their roles. The Rams forced Sam Darnold into his worst performance of the season last week.

But Jalen Hurts doesn’t rattle as easily. Hurts is less prolific this season, down from 3,858 yards and 23 touchdowns to 2,903 yards and 18 touchdowns, but he has cut down on his interceptions (from 15 to five). He also is more effective, posting a career-best completion percentage (68.7) and passer rating (103.7).

Despite the five sacks he took in Week 12 against the Eagles, Stafford threw two touchdown passes and no interceptions. His team needs a better performance from him on third down, however. L.A. has struggled in this area, converting just 36.8 percent for first downs in the regular season.

Jackson, Allen MVP showdown

AFC No. 3 Baltimore Ravens at No. 2 Buffalo Bills
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET

All season long, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have engaged in an arm-wrestling match for MVP honors.

While directing the league’s top-ranked offense, Jackson delivered one of the finest quarterback seasons in NFL history, passing for 4,172 yards, 41 touchdowns, just four interceptions and a league-leading passer rating of 119.6. He also has rushed for 915 yards and four touchdowns, becoming the first quarterback in league history to top the 4,000-yard passing and 900-yard rushing mark in the same season.

Allen, meanwhile, passed for 3,731 yards and 28 touchdowns (six interceptions), with 531 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. He led Buffalo to the No. 2 seed in the AFC despite the offseason trade of perennial 1,000-yard wide receiver Stefon Diggs to the Texans.

While a showdown between two leading MVP candidates makes for great theater, the league’s highest individual honor isn’t what drives either quarterback. Advancing to the AFC Championship Game and competing for their first Super Bowl does.

The Ravens hope Sunday’s meeting plays out like the regular-season game with Buffalo. Baltimore rolled to a 35-10 home victory in Week 4 behind two passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown from Jackson, plus 199 rushing yards and a touchdown from Derrick Henry. Allen and the Bills struggled against Baltimore’s defense, getting outgained 427-236 in total yardage and converting just three of 13 third downs. Buffalo rebounded to win 10 of its next 13 games to secure the AFC’s second seed (with the seed already secured, Allen played just one snap in a Week 18 loss to the Patriots).

Baltimore on Sunday may again be without top wide receiver Zay Flowers, who continues to nurse a sprained knee. Without Flowers last week, the Ravens leaned heavily on Henry (26 carries for 186 yards and two touchdowns) and five pass catchers had multiple receptions. Can the depth of Jackson’s supporting cast overwhelm a Bills defense that ranked 17th overall (341.5 yards per game), 12th against the run (115.5) and 24th against the pass (226.1)?

Or will home-field advantage boost Allen and a Bills team seeking their first AFC Championship Game appearance since the 2020 season?

(Top photo of Patrick Mahomes: Jamie Squire / Getty Images)