NFL QB stock report, Week 4: Josh Allen overtakes Patrick Mahomes for No. 1

There’s a new No. 1 in town, with Josh Allen playing better than anyone on the planet, and he’s got the Buffalo Bills on a mission very early in the season.

Plus, Patrick Mahomes hasn’t exactly looked like … Patrick Mahomes.

Though the Kansas City Chiefs star is on pace for a career high in completion percentage, he’s got five touchdowns against four interceptions — nearly as many picks as he had in all of 2019 (five) and 2020 (six) and putting him on pace for a career high. His 219.7 passing yards per game would be significantly lower than last year’s career worst of 261.4 and almost a football field shy of his career best of 318.6 in 2018.

This isn’t to say Mahomes is cooked or falling off the same cliff everyone wanted to shove Tom Brady off of in 2014. More than likely, Mahomes is working to see what will and won’t work as the season progresses, much like he did in 2023. They’re incorporating new elements to the offense, while perennial safety net Travis Kelce appears to finally be fading.

All the while, the Chiefs are undefeated. They’ve got more room for error than any team in the NFL, especially with an upper-tier defense, so Mahomes doesn’t need to post record-breaking numbers every week like he did earlier in his career. He’s savvy enough to recognize that after winning three Super Bowls, there’s a long-term element at stake. Remember, the Chiefs looked vulnerable for most of last season before another epic playoff run.

Mahomes’ superlatives are still unmatched. And if the NFL started over with a fantasy draft, Mahomes would be the consensus top pick. Posting numbers or not, Mahomes is still a nightmare for defenses with the game or season on the line.

But Allen has been considerably better this season. He’s completed 75 percent of his passes for 634 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions. He’s also added 85 rushing yards and two scores on the ground.

Even after losing Stefon Diggs and key members of the defense, Allen’s Bills are the only team to start the season with three 30-point games, and he’s looking like the early MVP favorite.

This week in ‘why coaching matters …’

Sam Darnold, Justin Fields and Malik Willis have already smashed preseason expectations, and they’re all doing it with new teams.

Darnold, a backup or spot starter in recent years, was brought to Minnesota as a safety blanket for rookie J.J. McCarthy, who ended up tearing his meniscus in the summer. The 27-year-old has never looked better, and head coach Kevin O’Connell’s scheme is a major reason. Darnold never had an opportunity like this with the New York Jets or Carolina Panthers.

The Pittsburgh Steelers traded for Fields to push Russell Wilson, whose calf injury flared up in Week 1. Now Fields is orchestrating an offense that can highlight his mobility while sprinkling in smart, timely passing, and the defense is allowing a league-low 8.7 points per outing.

There’s absolutely no pressure for Fields to play outside his means, and he’s completing an astounding 73.3 percent of his passes with a single interception. If Fields didn’t have — at minimum — an above-average day with the Chicago Bears, they didn’t have much of a chance to win.

The Green Bay Packers acquired Willis on Aug. 26 from the Tennessee Titans for a seventh-round pick to boost the backup spot. The Packers were essentially in regular-season mode by the time Willis arrived, so his practice opportunities were limited. The 2022 third-rounder had never thrown a touchdown pass before taking over when Jordan Love sprained his MCL in the opener.

Now Matt LaFleur is the early favorite to win NFL Coach of the Year with Willis leading the Packers to two victories while completing 25-of-33 passes for 324 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in two starts. He’s also got 114 rushing yards and a score.

TAKE IT YOURSELF, MALIK!#GBvsTEN pic.twitter.com/bHq0F4vB1g

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) September 22, 2024

Like Darnold and Fields, Willis entered the league with enough talent, but he wasn’t in a great situation due to the offense around him. All three were such unknowns in new situations that they debuted in the bottom 10 of the rankings. Now, with more evidence, they’re deservedly climbing, though Willis will eventually fall out when Love returns.

Remember this when labeling a quarterback a bust. There are situations every year when QBs — young and old — can’t succeed because they aren’t given the appropriate help.

And when they are given the necessary resources, it’s a thing of beauty.

This is 40

Aaron Rodgers delivered a vintage performance Thursday against the Patriots, completing 27-of-35 passes for 281 yards and a couple of touchdowns. He did whatever he wanted.

when you look up “poetry in motion” 🔥#NEvsNYJ on Prime Video
Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/8X6nr01RCQ

— NFL (@NFL) September 20, 2024

To be fair, the Patriots didn’t offer a lot of defensive resistance. But aside from their poor tackling against the Jets, this had been a defense that league evaluators have described as tough, aggressive and well-coached, so credit Rodgers for making it look easy. He was in total control, delivering quick completions from the pocket or extending plays to give his receivers time to get open.

They’ve got a few more tough defenses coming up with the Denver Broncos, Vikings, Buffalo Bills and Steelers, so we’ll quickly discover how much of a threat Rodgers and the Jets can be in the AFC. But if Thursday was the start of something, the Jets have a chance to contend in the conference.

No more scholarships

As mentioned in previous rankings, the standards can be different for certain players based on experience, past accomplishments, the situation around them, the potential for high ceilings or low floors and, of course, current performance. That’s why top pick Caleb Williams debuted at No. 19 and expected breakout candidate Anthony Richardson — the 2023 No. 4 pick who entered the season with four career starts — opened at No. 21.

So far, both ubertalented QBs have flashed but have been largely inconsistent. Those inconsistencies were on full display Sunday when they squared off and struggled throughout most of the game. Circumstances matter, like offensive line performance or play calling. The blame doesn’t usually fall squarely on the QB, not in these rankings anyway.

They both fell this week to their season lows in the rankings. It’s not indicative of their future. It’s entirely representative of their performance.

For Williams in particular, it looks like everything is still too sped up for him. He badly airmailed a go-route to an open Rome Odunze in the second half on a throw Williams is capable of making nine out of 10 times. However, he rushed his read and delivery, and the throw sailed as a result. That’s just one example.

Once Williams and Richardson improve their consistency, they’ll fly up the rankings. It’s not out of the question that both could finish in the top 20, if not the top half. They just need experience.

Under protection

It’s become increasingly evident Patriots coach Jerod Mayo made the right call to start Jacoby Brissett and leave Drake Maye safe on the sidelines.

The Patriots have given up a sack on 12.5 percent of their dropbacks, the third-worst rate in the league this season and a mark that’s on pace to be the 14th worst since sacks became an official stat in 1982. The 1992 Eagles were the only team to give up such a high percentage of sacks and finish with a winning record.

What’s more, Patriots wide receivers have combined to catch 21 passes for 169 yards and one touchdown through three games. There are five wideouts around the league who have exceeded that output by themselves.

While there were credible reasons to start Maye in Week 1, last week put things into perspective. The Panthers have, at best, set back Bryce Young’s development a couple of years. At worst, they’ll never get anything out of their heavy draft investment. This has been the result of starting Young without enough help around him and sinking his confidence to the point where they had to bench him.

The Patriots can’t afford to do that with Maye. Their quarterback play has been among the worst in the league in the post-Tom Brady era, as the veteran route with Cam Newton had a restricted ceiling and the development path with Mac Jones was an exercise in organizational self-sabotage.

The concern in the short term, though, is that Brissett has withstood an increased number of hits that have taken him longer to get back to his feet. It may only be a matter of time before one leads to an injury that forces him to the sideline. And Maye was sacked twice in 10 dropbacks Thursday during a relief appearance against the Jets.

While there’s value in watching and learning, there’s even greater value in keeping Maye out of harm’s way and maintaining his confidence until the Patriots can improve the entire operation around the quarterback.

The Brian Flores effect

Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is on a heater. After stymying the struggling Giants in Week 1, Flores’ defense created constant headaches for Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud, forcing two of the league’s best quarterbacks to look ordinary.

A market correction this week felt necessary for Purdy, who dropped from 10th to 12th after losing to the Vikings. We’ll continue to bookmark that thought when quarterbacks have substandard days against Flores, and he’s got some more doozies on the schedule. The Vikings face the Packers this week (so, Love or Willis) then take on Rodgers, Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, Richardson and Trevor Lawrence to round out the first half of the season.

Flores is looking like the NFL’s best defensive coordinator through three weeks. Just ask a couple of the league’s top QBs.

(Photo of Josh Allen: Kevin Sabitus / Getty Images)