NFL Thanksgiving, Black Friday game roundtable: What Dolphins can prove, a new Caleb Williams?

Thanksgiving Day will take on a bit of a different feel: The Lions are expected to roll, rivals or not the Cowboys and Giants are playing out the string, and the holiday’s best game might be the nightcap, when the Dolphins try to stay hot in chilly Green Bay. And then there’s Black Friday — can the Chiefs finally just put an inferior team away?

Caleb Williams on the rise, a couple of coaches on the hot seat… The Athletic NFL writers Mike Jones, Ted Nguyen and Dan Pompei share their thoughts on all of these storylines and more.

Caleb Williams has now played two games under new play-caller Thomas Brown. What are your impressions of both quarterback and offense — does the performance match the better statistical output?

Jones: This Caleb Williams is much closer to the player that the Bears hoped they were getting. Since the switch to Thomas Brown, he is more accurate, more decisive and is largely playing with nice timing and rhythm. In his final two outings under Shane Waldron, Williams was sacked six and nine times, respectively, completed only 53 percent of his passes and ran the ball a combined six times for 20 yards. Far too often, Williams was guilty of holding onto the ball too long, trying to do too much and putting himself and the offense in unfavorable situations. But under Brown’s direction, Williams is getting rid of the ball more quickly and taking what the defense gives him — that improved decision-making and execution has led to improved production. The quarterback has completed 74 and 68 percent of his passes and has scrambled for 70 and 33 yards, respectively. Chicago still finds wins hard to come by; their losing streak has reached five games. But the Bears lost by just one point to a playoff team in Green Bay and took another talented team (Minnesota) to overtime, so things are trending in the right direction, it appears.

Pompei: Williams has looked comfortable with Brown calling plays, as Brown’s willingness to rely on quick, rhythm passes has made it easier for the rookie. It appears Brown has a feel for how to take advantage of Williams’ abilities while minimizing some of the inefficiencies surrounding him. When Williams went on a heater in late September/early October, he was playing against much softer defenses, but the last two weeks Williams stepped up against two of the more challenging defenses he’s faced. It’s going to get more difficult from here, however, starting Thursday against the Lions. The next step for Williams will be to deliver impact wins. It’s one thing to light up social media with big plays; it’s another to light up the standings.

Nguyen: With Thomas, it looks like each of the Bears receivers are put in position to play to their strengths. For example, D.J. Moore was struggling earlier this season but he’s getting put in positions where he can catch screens and short passes and run after the catch, which is one of his best traits. They’re even lining him up in the backfield for hand-offs and to create mismatches from that position. Brown has also used motion purposefully to create space in the passing game. Against the Vikings, Williams looked like he was confident in their blitz plan and executed — that’s a sign of good gameplanning and teaching. In his two games with Brown calling plays, he’s had his best games of the season against the blitz, averaging .86 expected points added per dropback, which is phenomenal. Also, whether it was Brown or a voice above, someone told Williams it’s O.K. to scramble and he’s combined for 103 rushing yards in the last two games. Before that, he was trying hard to prove he’s a pocket quarterback, which he’s clearly improving on but the offense is better when he threatens the defense with his legs. It’s only a two-game sample, but so many facets of the Bears offense looks more defined and the results are showing on the field.

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It seems the Giants and Cowboys are playing out the string, but as far as the futures of head coaches Mike McCarthy and Brian Daboll go, can a rivalry game victory on the Thanksgiving Day stage save the jobs of either?

Nguyen: Brian Daboll looks like he’s going to be out no matter what happens but it’s not all his fault. GM Joe Schoen signed Daniel Jones to a long-term contract when he didn’t need to and because of that contract they had to cut Jones, which was bad messaging to the players. The team looks like they quit last Sunday. It’s hard to imagine their effort level will be much better on Thursday. I’m less sure about Mike McCarthy’s fate. After this disastrous season, all indications point toward Jerry Jones going after a big name but Jones has been notoriously loyal to coaches and he could give McCarthy a pass because of all the injuries. Also, the front office didn’t do much to improve this roster and caused issues with their reluctance to pay their players — but they ended up doing so anyway. I thought it was odd when Troy Aikman called McCarthy one hell of a coach on a Monday Night broadcast that the Cowboys were not a part of. Maybe McCarthy has more support than we think in Dallas.

Pompei: Regardless of what has and has not been said by the teams’ respective owners, it’s probable the fate of both coaches already has been decided. However, a bad Cowboys loss on a national stage could hasten action by Jerry Jones. In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising to see McCarthy replaced with Mike Zimmer over the weekend if the Cowboys stumble. No team could withstand the injuries the Cowboys have without significant repercussions, but Jones is tired of being kicked around. Changing the head coach is one of the only ways he can show that to his fan base.

Jones: I don’t envision the outcome of this game impacting either coach’s job one way or the other. I know Jones said an extension remained possible for McCarthy, but c’mon. You can’t bring him back. It’s clear the Cowboys have reached their ceiling under McCarthy’s direction. There’s too much talent on that roster for Dallas to continually underachieve as they have on his watch. I would keep Daboll, though. I believe he’s a good coach. He displayed great creativity while serving as Buffalo’s offensive coordinator. Daniel Jones was just awful, and GM Joe Schoen’s decision to let Saquon Barkley walk also hampered Daboll’s efforts. There’s not a lot of top-flight talent on that roster. I would get rid of Schoen, but keep Daboll and give him more time while working to fix that roster.

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Miami travels to Green Bay. The book on the Dolphins the past two seasons was that they’d fold in big games in cold weather. Particularly with first-year defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver getting a lot out of a defense missing its top pass rushers, are this year’s Dolphins built to last down the stretch and potentially in the postseason?

Nguyen: There are a couple of things the offense is doing better than last year, even though they haven’t been as productive. First, Tua Tagovailoa is creating plays outside of structure, which hasn’t been a strength of his in the NFL — maybe the his offseason weight loss is paying dividends. Second, he’s checking the ball down more rather than forcing it to Tyreek Hill. Maybe it’s because Hill is nursing a wrist injury, but the offense is just smoother when Tagovailoa is willing to check the ball down to Achane and tight end Jonnu Smith, who is one of the best under-the-radar free agent signings of 2024. The defense was already playing at a high level toward the end of the last year but dealt with injuries and they clearly never meshed well with former coordinator Vic Fangio. Maybe the defense is playing harder for Weaver. However, last season, they struggled against playoff teams. This year is no different. On their three-game win streak, they beat the Rams, Patriots, and Raiders — all three of those teams have losing records. For Miami to prove they are a tougher team, they have to beat the Packers.

Pompei: We have to be careful about reading too much into what the Dolphins did in 2022 and ’23. This is a different team, one that’s trending positively with three straight wins. And the Packers are not invincible at Lambeau; in fact, two of their losses have come at home. If the Dolphins can steal a win Thursday (they are 3.5-point underdogs), they will be well positioned to make the playoffs because they have only one remaining team on their schedule — the Texans — with a winning record.

Jones: This Dolphins team certainly is trending in the right direction. A healthy Tagovailoa has reignited the offense, and Weaver’s defense has held opponents under 20 points in each of the last three games (all victories). I still have questions, though. Those wins came against the Rams, Raiders and Patriots. Prior to the win streak, they came up short (30-27) against Buffalo. They still have some work to do before they’re back in the playoff race; they need to keep winning and need wobbles from Denver (currently the seventh seed) and/or the Chargers. I’m going to reserve judgement before declaring them capable of lasting in the playoffs. I need to see quality wins against teams like Green Bay this week and Houston in Week 15 first.

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We’ve written plenty about the Chiefs’ great escapes in 2024, which included last week in Carolina. What, if anything, do you want to see from this Kansas City team down the stretch, especially as they go against a Raiders team that knocked them off at home on Christmas Day last year?

Jones: Patrick Mahomes said it best: “I would love to win a game not by the very last play.” That’s what I want to see from Kansas City. The Chiefs have proven they can win ugly, they can win close. They need to actually look like a legit Super Bowl contender and trounce a bottom-feeder like the Raiders. This involves the offense clicking and the defense delivering. There’s no reason this game should be close — divisional foe or not, there’s a real talent disparity here. But Kansas City played down to the Raiders’ level in that 27-20 Week 8 victory, and they have done that with other sub-par teams as well. Let’s see them look like the elite team that they really have the ability to be.

Pompei: To Mahomes’ point, it would be nice to see the Chiefs put away an inferior opponent and win without it coming down to a play or two at the end. For that to happen, their defense will need to play more like it did in late September/early October than it did in the last two weeks, when the Chiefs gave up 57 points. It would also help if they could generate more pressure with their front four, and if wide receivers could get open, hang onto Mahomes’ passes and run after the catch to make some big plays.

Nguyen: This offense has to be more consistent. DeAndre Hopkins is quickly building a rapport with Mahomes. They’ll get Isiah Pacheco back, which will give them some much needed explosiveness in the running game, and they might get Marquise Brown back. That’s a lot more firepower than they had in the beginning of the season. This is still a top-10 offense but they always seem to just do enough. I want to see come out and dominate from start to finish. The defense is still good but they aren’t the suffocating unit that won them a Super Bowl last season. The offense will have to handle more of the burden if they want to three-peat.

(Photo: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)