NHL Player Tiers 2024-25: Connor McDavid levels up again, goalies join the discussion

By Dom Luszczyszyn, Sean Gentille and Shayna Goldman

The fifth annual NHL Player Tiers are here and we’ve upped the ante.

This year we’ve cooked up a list of the top 150 players in the league separated into five groups: the MVP cornerstones, the franchise pillars, the All-Star candidates, the bona fide stars and the elite support. That’s one new tier and 25 extra players from last year — plus one new position. That’s right — we’ve included goalies… for better or worse.

For those new here, this isn’t your typical ranking because it isn’t really a ranking. It’s a hierarchy, one where grouping players together is the primary feature and meant to celebrate exactly how diversely most people see this sport. There are levels to the league and while one player may be more well-liked by some over another, another group may see it differently. Putting two players side-by-side allows for the uncertainty that comes with trying to rank players in similar weight classes — usually a fools’ errand.

As usual, this isn’t a single-source ranking. It’s a composite of new-school data blended with old-school wisdom in an attempt to gauge where the league’s very best stand going into the 2024-25 season. The goal is to create the definitive list of hockey’s greatest stars — one that starts with a modeled output based on projected Net Rating and evolves into a much more complete look after hours of internal and external deliberation.

Based on the feedback we received: mission accomplished. “In the past, there’s been a few really surprising placements and nothing really surprised me this year,” an NHL team analyst said. “This could come out tomorrow and our group is going to be fine with it.”

That didn’t mean there weren’t tweaks to be made after our conversations with NHL team executives, coaches, scouts and analysts. As OK as some felt with the initial list, they all had a list of players they’d prefer higher or lower to varying degrees.

We shifted things further based on insider consensus and what you see below is the final result: quantifiable data combined with qualitative opinions — the should-be goal of any front office around the league.

While it’s arguably the most vetted list of the league’s best you’ll find anywhere, that doesn’t mean it’s above questioning. The debate and discussion that stems from it is the point.

That’s the fun of it, and this year we’ve even added to that with a survey you can take to tell us which players you felt were placed too high or too low.

We have our reasons for why each player lands where they do, found below along with projected stats for next season — all in a filterable list by team, position and age.

Enjoy, and let the debates begin.

Try changing or resetting your filters to see more.

Tier 1 — MVP

A top 10 player. Someone who is very likely to get serious trophy consideration at season’s end and whom championship-caliber teams are built around. The best player on almost any team in the league.

It’s always Connor at the top. Always.

While others have previously joined him in Tier 1A and have briefly challenged him at the very top, it never takes long for McDavid to unequivocally assert himself. It’s him, a gap that varies in size from season-to-season, and then everyone else.

Last year it felt like that gap shrunk.

MacKinnon scored 51 goals, 140 points and won the Hart in a career-best season; Matthews scored an era-best 69 goals while also being a Selke finalist. For a moment, the league’s apex seemed tighter in what felt like a “down” year for McDavid — an obviously ridiculous sentence for a player who had 100 assists and paced for 142 points. That’s McDavid for you.

That sentiment was more about others seemingly catching up than it was about McDavid falling back. McDavid obliterated that notion completely when it mattered most, though, with a 42-point playoff — a height not seen by anyone not named Gretzky or Lemieux. His 34 playoff assists are an NHL record, eclipsing Gretzky’s 31 in 1993.

To be in the same conversation as Gretzky and Lemieux is special. To surpass them en route to winning the Conn Smythe in a losing effort is transcendent. McDavid’s fiercest competition isn’t anyone currently playing, it’s a spot on Hockey Rushmore when all is said and done.

McDavid shares a place in 1A with two others, but we all know he’s alone at the top — still in a tier of his own. Call it 1A-plus, and it’s why this tier is the only one not listed alphabetically.

It’s always Connor at the top.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

MacKinnon is a force.

He is one of the most dominant players in the league and this year he has the hardware to prove it with a Hart Trophy and Ted Lindsay Award. His wins were all the more impressive given how tight the MVP race was — a fitting victory for the player who brought the most value last season with a plus-32.5 Net Rating.

Few players can contend with MacKinnon’s combination of raw skill, dizzying speed, and outright power. He marches down the ice with immense pace to gain the offensive zone, where he’s a dual threat between his dangerous shot and dynamic passing. That helped him earn a career-high 51 goals and 140 points this season, much of which came from his five-on-five excellence.

MacKinnon is surrounded by a lot of talent in Colorado, but he is unquestionably the team’s backbone. He’s an elite game-breaker who has shown an innate ability to take over on any given night. Game 1 to start the season or Game 7 in a high-pressure playoff environment — MacKinnon is going to dominate. Opponents can try to slow him down or contain him, but few can outright shut him down.

Everything about MacKinnon’s game screams Tier 1, where he has been a staple over the years. His MVP-caliber season earned him the bump from 1B up to 1A. McDavid may lead this sub-tier, but MacKinnon comes in right behind.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

In an age of video games numbers, some of them still feel almost unbelievable to witness. Matthews being one shy of 70 goals last season certainly qualifies.

The new captain of the Leafs is without a doubt the game’s best goal-scorer, an almost automatic sniper who can put the puck in the net seemingly at will in any way he sees fit. That, through the same point in their careers (562 games), Matthews (368 goals) is significantly outpacing Ovechkin (341 goals) in scoring is a testament to his all-time greatness in the making.

If scoring was all Matthews did, he’d still be a Tier 1 player. That’s the level he’s at in that department. Scoring at a 62-goal pace over four seasons when no other player is even above 50 is out of this world. It’s seriously special.

Yet somehow, on top of that, he’s also one of the game’s most complete players. Matthews is a true 200-foot ace and finally got credit for it last season with a third place finish in Selke voting. His plus-four Defensive Rating ranks among the league’s very best and is only a shade below Barkov.

Matthews has a tantalizingly unique package of skills that has him on a clear-cut all-time path — which is what makes the lack of any playoff dominance so frustrating. Scoring just 23 goals and 48 points over 55 playoff games isn’t good enough; it casts a serious shadow over his spectacular regular season efforts.

It also creates a pecking order at the top for most, one where Matthews may still belong in 1A — but is firmly No. 3 until he finally proves his mettle when it matters most.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Ahead of last season, Barkov fell out of Tier 1, largely over minor injury issues and a relative inability to elevate his game in the postseason. They were nitpicks but differentiating between players this good can come down to the margins. In any case, Barkov seems to have taken that personally. What a difference a year can make.

Now, he’s back in the MVP Tier, and his spot is more solid than it’s ever been. There are five players alongside Barkov in Tier 1B — and he isn’t fifth. To earn that distinction, all he needed to do was put up an 80-point, Selke-winning season and lead his team to a Stanley Cup.

It’s worth noting Barkov’s regular-season performance wasn’t out of step with what we’ve seen from him in the past. He’s had years with more points and similar defensive impacts — but he’d never quite put it all together in quite the same way. The Panthers allowed just 1.99 expected goals against per 60 and 1.41 goals against per 60 in Barkov’s minutes, a remarkable feat considering the difficulty of his minutes. In those same minutes, he produced points more efficiently than players like Jack Eichel, Elias Pettersson and Jason Robertson. Then he put together a similarly outstanding postseason that earned him more Conn Smythe votes than any other Panther and ended with him taking a Cup handoff from commissioner Gary Bettman. Not bad. Talents like him are rare, as we heard frequently from our panel.

”There aren’t many players who have a really high-end two-way game and also offensive creativity and skill,” one of them said. ”I would rather have Barkov because he gives you so much freedom when you build the rest of your team.”

Another was even more direct: ”F— is he good. It’s not fair.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

For the last three years, Draisaitl has solidly slotted in as our No. 4 center and at different points shared a tier with MacKinnon and Matthews. Even as those two joined McDavid as slam-dunk members of 1A, Drasaitl remains as an easy choice to be the first in line behind them. That’s no longer true. Instead, great as he remains, he’s in a fight for his spot with three other players.

He’s no longer the most reliable point producer in the league; that’s Kucherov, who put up a remarkable 4.93 all-situations points per 60 compared to Draisaitl’s 3.79.

He’s not the consensus best two-way center — that’s Barkov — nor is he particularly close. ”I don’t know if he defends all that hard,” an exec said. ”I struggle with that because the way guys get paid in the NHL it’s kind of implicit that they’re average defenders and I’m not sure if he is.”

He’s not a generational talent at his own position; that’s Makar. And he’s not the No. 1 center on his own team. That’s … well, we know who that is.

What does that make Drasaitl? ”A very high-end 1C” and a ”super-talented, dangerous player,” as one exec put it, who’s lost a bit of ground due to circumstances at least partially outside of his control. He undoubtedly benefits from playing with McDavid, even when they don’t share the ice. He also gets dinged for not having to truly carry his team. What he’d look like as the unquestioned alpha dog is a very fair and very open question. As it stands, he’s the second-best player on the team and one of the seven best in the league, rather than a no-brainer at No. 4 or 5. It’s a different spot — and still a strong one.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

What’s one way to stop a downward trend down the Tiers? Put up an MVP-caliber season.

Kucherov doesn’t have the flash of MacKinnon or the shiftiness of McDavid. He’s a cerebral player who goes about his game more methodically. He anticipates mistakes from defenders or outright forces errors to gain puck possession. In the offensive zone he can set his teammates up with dangerous passes or beat goalies with his own shot. He was by far the most valuable player in Tampa Bay, when they needed someone to step up to keep their window open.

“He does it in a totally different way. He’s not speed and power, he’s smarts. I know it’s the power play, but he’s the best power-play player I’ve ever seen. By far,” a coach said.

Unlike some of the Hart Trophy front-runners in 1A, there were just a few more holes in his game, which is what separates Kucherov by a sub-tier. He only earned about 46 percent of his 144 points at five-on-five last season. The power play made up a big chunk of his production, and he benefited from empty-net scoring as well. Defensive gaps in his game only hurt his case in a crowded field.

But even with these weaknesses, he was still more than dominant enough offensively to easily earn a spot in 1B. He’s the best winger in the league.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

If this list were based on last year’s performance, Makar certainly wouldn’t be alone in Tier 1B. He missed time in December and looked off for the rest of the season; he was a bit less effective in the transition game and the Avs wound up scoring more goals and earning more chances without him on the ice. Hard to believe.

Taking bodies of work and overall profiles into account, though, complicates things. With that in mind, we leaned hard on the panel to help us figure out how to stratify the three top defensemen, and the consensus was clear: the gap might’ve closed a bit, but Makar is still in a class by himself for at least one more season.

His closest competition was — and will likely remain — Norris winner Quinn Hughes. ”I would separate him from Quinn, even though I know Quinn had a better year. And I love Quinn,” one coach said. ”Makar is a little bit bigger and feels a lot bigger out there. He feels just a little bit more dynamic. To me, he’s the McDavid of defensemen.” He advocated for Makar to bump up to 1A.

We also asked about what separates him from Adam Fox, the other Tier 1 defenseman. ”He has like another entire category to his game because of how he skates,” another coach said. ”He’s not any smarter (than Fox), but skating is such an important part of the game, as long as you’re not too fast for your own good. And he’s not.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

With Makar and Hughes comes smooth skating and flashy point totals. Fox’s approach differs a bit; what he lacks in speed and dynamics, he makes up for with some of the highest hockey IQ in the league.

Fox’s anticipation and poise fuel his two-way ability. He can bring the heat offensively in his own way and what he may lack in scoring compared to some of the league’s best, he more than makes up in shutdown defense. He may not fit the traditional mold for that role, but his smarts go a long way.

“I’m a big Fox guy because he does all that and he can’t really skate. It’s a unique way to go through your career too,” a coach said. “As much as Makar has that ability to outskate that extra guy who’s got him angled off, Fox doesn’t have it. He’s never approaching situations with that in mind. I sometimes think that players who are that smart are building their own memory bank. His processing and his ability to digest stuff is very unique.”

Insider feedback only confirmed what we were thinking: these three are very closely matched right now. Makar’s playoff pedigree gives him a slight edge over Fox for now. The gap between him and Hughes may be even slimmer.

Maybe this season offers some separation between the three, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see these three jostling for Tiers positioning once again next year. And the Norris trophy, too.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

This time last year, there was still some skepticism in NHL circles surrounding Quinn Hughes.

They didn’t see franchise-level substance beyond the point totals and they didn’t see the necessary chance creation to support that production. Not to the same level of the offensive drivers above him, anyway. They didn’t believe in his newfound defensive ability either.

One year later, there are no doubts regarding where Hughes fits in the league-wide hierarchy: right at the top in Tier 1.

To say the Hughes we saw last season, the one who won the Norris Trophy, is the same Hughes from 2022-23 would be a disservice to the massive leap he took to get to this point. From 76 points to 92; from 48 percent of the expected goals to 55 percent; from a plus-16 Net Rating to plus-25.

Hughes took more shots, scored more goals, created more chances, exited the zone more often and efficiently, and defended his blue line better. Hughes was a different player; a better player. He was the total package, the driving force behind Vancouver’s surge to a division title.

“All those factors kind of come together to move him firmly into this conversation instead of a productive guy with an asterisk,” one exec said.

The logical question now is which part of that conversation Hughes belongs to — with Makar or Fox. Well, there’s a reason he’s in 1C. The majority chose the latter.

While some shared worry about his playoff efficacy due to his stature, Hughes landing with Fox has more to do with Makar’s longer resume as the top dog.

Another season like the one Hughes just had can change that. For now, Makar is still king; one season isn’t enough to dethrone him.

Hughes will have to settle for No. 2.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Few would argue Hughes’ 2023-24 wasn’t at least a bit of a disappointment. The Devils, largely because of injuries and poor goaltending, fell short of expectations and Hughes couldn’t build on a 99-point season that, at 21 years old, seemed to signal his arrival as a yearly MVP candidate.

It’s also a testament to how talented Hughes is — and how high his ceiling remains — that his ”disappointing” season still entailed a top-20 finish in points per 60, sandwiched between Sidney Crosby and Mikko Rantanen. He managed it despite two separate shoulder injuries that cost him 20 games and necessitated off-season surgery. His biggest drop-off came in the quality of chances he created for himself and the accuracy of his shot. Both would seem to be symptoms of a shoulder issue.

As long as he’s healthy and the Devils’ offseason moves pay off, we expect him to fully regain his stride in 2023-24 as a premier transition player, an overall offensive menace and a player who, over the last few years, has corrected many perceived holes in his game.

An exec and an analyst both said he’d be their pick over certain players in Tier 1B. Next year, perhaps. For now, sticking as the only center in 1C and sharing the NHL 25 cover with his brothers will have to suffice. Beyond that, staying healthy, comfortably passing the 100-point mark and translating his game a bit more for the postseason are all reasonable expectations.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

The real question for Pastrnak heading into 2023-24 was how he was going to manage without a ton of support around him. While he didn’t replicate his 61-goal season, he only fell three points shy of his 2022-23 heights. The fact he managed that with center depth like Pavel Zacha and Morgan Geekie makes it all the more impressive.

Pastrnak showed he can be the driver of his line and the Bruins’ top six. He’s more than just an elite shooter and lethal one-timer. His puck-moving ability, from his transition game to his passing, helps him control play at five-on-five and makes the Bruins a much stronger offensive threat.

”He’s the guy that can create something out of nothing. When the puck’s on his stick, he’s an ’oh s—’ guy all day long,” a coach said.

Another year in 1C is a testament to MVP-caliber play. It may seem like a knock that he didn’t advance from last year’s placement despite being one of the most dangerous forwards in the Eastern Conference without a ton of help. There just isn’t much leeway to move ahead when you’re already at the top of the position as a top-three winger in the league.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

This time last year we wondered whether Tkachuk was one of the five best players in the world. An MVP-caliber season on a new team and a scintillating playoff run from a one-of-a-kind player will certainly have that effect.

One year later he’s a deserved Stanley Cup champion, but Tkachuk’s personal stock has slipped a bit after a down year by his standards. Tkachuk dropped from 109 points to 88 and struggled to drive play to nearly the same effect as the past two seasons. The factors driving his 1C placement — elite production and on-ice impact in a rare dual-threat, power-forward package — felt less apparent.

That’s only due to an atypically slow start and it’s why Tkachuk holds steady in 1C going into 2024-25. Recovering from a fractured sternum ain’t easy!

The splits before and after the calendar flipped to 2024 are the most telling and why we’re all-in on Tkachuk returning to dominance.

In the 2023 portion of last season, Tkachuk paced an 11-50-61 scoreline, outscored opponents 19-17 and earned just 53 percent of the expected goals — good for an average Game Score of 0.9. In the 2024 portion, though, Tkachuk looked a lot like his usual self: a 39-76-115 pace while outscoring opponents 37-23 with a 57 percent expected goals rate — good for an average Game Score of 1.63. Night and day.

Expect more of the latter and for Tkachuk to re-assert himself as one of the game’s very best.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 2 — Franchise

A top 30 player. Someone who is the best player on a contending team or second best on a championship-caliber team. An unquestionably elite player.

At 37 years old and for a second straight season, Crosby is the lone center in Tier 2A. Frankly, he was closer to moving up than down. Nobody who contributed to the rankings wanted to be the one to predict a drop-off, and that includes us.

If that sounds silly, remember Crosby just put up his most productive season at five-on-five, in terms of points per 60, since 2018-19. The main mark against him: defensive impacts that are poor overall, and even more so when judging against the centers ahead of him (yes, including Jack Hughes). That’s one of the only spots where you can tell he is, in fact, 37 years old.

And even still, it’s not tough to construct an argument to put him in 1A alongside Hughes, if not higher. The impact he has as an offensive player, and his ability to control a game, is still that significant.

“If I was playing a game or a playoff series tomorrow, I would probably still have Sid in that top group,” one exec said. ”Maybe two or three months into this season I’ll be like, ”OK, I’m seeing (some decline). But pretty much all year, Sid was still top notch.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 2 — Franchise

PIT

No one cares about the runner-up; it’s win or go home and for two of the last three seasons Josi went home empty-handed.

Josi had an extremely strong case in both 2022 and 2024 to be crowned the best defenseman in the world, but an unprecedented era of burgeoning blue-line talent had other plans. Second fiddle it is. That applies to these tiers too, where three of the last four Norris trophy winners — Hughes, Makar, Fox — reside in Tier 1 while Josi is left on the outside.

Perhaps that’s a bit unfair given there isn’t much separating Josi from those three in terms of measured impact, especially with the puck. One coach wondered if he should be ahead of Fox, too.

What it comes down to is Father Time. It’s a marvel the now-34-year-old is even in the running year after year and while he’s aging like a fine wine, the best bets are on the three superstars in their prime.

If Josi can string together a second consecutive Norris-worthy campaign like last year’s, we’ll definitely reconsider for next year.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 2 — Franchise

NSH

In a different market with a different system and a stronger supporting cast, Kaprizov might get a lot more buzz as a Tier 1 player. He’s a do-it-all winger who practically has to do it all himself.

The other wingers in Kaprizov’s weight class have at least one teammate to lean on in Tier 2 or higher. Kaprizov’s best option is Matt Boldy in 3C — and they only played together in 44 percent of Kaprizov’s minutes. He’s on an island. Between the Wild’s defensive brand and their weak offensive support, a 105-point pace is a lot more impressive there than it is elsewhere. While everyone knows how good Kaprizov is with the puck, not enough factor in the degree of difficulty.

What flies under the radar with Kaprizov is he can also hold his own defensively. He’s responsible without the puck and is a hound when it comes to retrieving them. His ability to exit the zone cleanly is a big plus too — he’s one of the game’s absolute best in that department.

With the Wild starting to grow around Kaprizov, this might be the year he finally makes his mark as an MVP fixture. A spot in Tier 1 is up for grabs.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 2 — Franchise

MIN

Over the last four years, Panarin has steadily drifted down the Tiers. After slipping down to 3A last year, he’s back up a full tier to 2A for the first since 2021.

An MVP-caliber season from Panarin helped fuel his move back up the ranks. His career-high 120 points are the most eye-catching element of his 2023-24 season, but digging deeper shows just how impressive his year was. He was once again one of the premier puck movers in the league; few players set their teammates up with a higher rate of dangerous passes. What really set Panarin’s season apart was more emphasis on his shot quality and quantity, adding more dimension to his game. As influential as the power play was on his success, the winger’s ability to create at five-on-five was a major standout in New York.

Still, that isn’t enough for a bump to Tier 1. Panarin doesn’t have the same year-to-year consistency as the Kucherovs and Tkachuks of the world, and last year’s 3A placement captures that. And he doesn’t have the same playoff pedigree, either; that game-changing regular season play hasn’t been replicated in the postseason in New York.

“(His) playoffs weren’t great, but he was a force during the regular season and has won before,” an executive said.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 2 — Franchise

NYR

The first goaltender to ever be included in Player Tiers has to be considered the best in the world. Right now, that’s Shesterkin.

The start of 2023-24 was pretty tumultuous by his standards. Sometime around the All-Star break, though, Shesterkin remembered he’s an elite goaltender, saving about 17 goals above expected in 23 games from the return to play through the end of the regular season.

Even with that turnaround, Shesterkin’s regular season still didn’t stack up to Hellebuyck’s. If these tiers were based solely on season stats, maybe the two would both be in 2A. But we try to look at the entire picture, and there is a pretty glaring gap between the two in the postseason.

”I would have them in the same tier but would take Shesterkin ahead of Hellebuyck, for his whole body of work. But it is a close call,” one executive said.

That whole body of work includes the postseason, where Shesterkin has been the difference for New York in each of his three playoff runs. Most recently, that was with 15.6 goals saved above expected in 16 games and a sparkling .926 save percentage. That game-breaking play is what gives him the edge here, while Hellebuyck’s playoff track record is shaky.

”I am willing to concede that some goalies can elevate in the playoffs and Hellebuyck might not be one of them, so the argument for Shesterkin is not without some merit,” one analyst added.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 2 — Franchise

NYR

A dip to 67 points in 2022-23 didn’t deter us — we always had faith in Aho as a franchise player. He rewarded that faith with a career-best performance, scoring 89 points and outscoring opponents by a 58-31 margin.

That offensive explosion was nice to see for a team that’s long lacked that kind of scoring punch. Aho’s two-way ability has never been in question, but there was always some hope held out that he could deliver a little more production. He finally did, and it’s an especially impressive feat in a system in which creating dangerous offense can be difficult.

The question now is whether Aho can repeat the feat. On a team that lost a fair bit of support this summer, it won’t be easy.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 2 — Franchise

CAR

Something we’ve learned: the people who love Eichel reeeeally love Eichel. ”He is in that realm of elite, elite, elite talent,” one coach said. Last year brought similar sentiments.

Again, it was tough to argue. The main thing keeping Eichel from a claim on a spot to match his talent is the time he’s spent out of the lineup, including 19 games in 2023-24. Other than that, he’s checked plenty of boxes.

He’s consistently one of the league’s very best transition players. He’s now had two straight seasons with more than 2.4 points per 60 at five-on-five, which isn’t quite elite but within spitting distance. His overall impact on five-on-five play, when accounting for shot and chance generation, couldn’t be much better. And he was, perhaps, the best player on a Cup winner. A full season (one where he finally hits the 90-point mark) might be enough to move him up.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 2 — Franchise

VGK

Not a single source suggested Heiskanen was too high and more than one wondered whether he should join Josi in Tier 2A. For now, we’ve decided against it; Heiskanen is alone in 2B as our No. 5 defenseman.

If he wants to move, his quickest route is probably through point production. Elements of his five-on-five game — his effect on scoring chances and effectiveness at starting the rush, specifically — have been extremely good for two seasons now, rather than the otherworldly level he reached in 2021-22.

Without that trump card, he’s trying to join a class that, for all intents and purposes, has a similar overall profile while consistently producing more than the 1.86 points per 60 he managed last season. He certainly has the talent to get it done.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 2 — Franchise

DAL

With 39 goals saved above expected and a .921 save percentage, the Jets’ number one had a Vezina Trophy-winning season. But unlike that award, our considerations encompass both the regular season and the postseason. The two aren’t weighted equally, but when the results are dramatically different, it has to come into the equation.

Winnipeg’s defense let Hellebuyck down in Round 1 and left their goalie exposed often. Even against that workload, he failed to give his team a chance to win in four of five games which contributed to their elimination. While he’s had some postseason highlights in years past, there is officially more bad than good.

Maybe what separates Hellebuyck from Shesterkin isn’t just how these two handle the pressure of a playoff environment. His hefty regular season workload could also be to blame.

”It is hard to fault him when his team puts him in a position to be less than 100 percent,” one analyst explained. “If we gave both goalies similar workloads, would Hellebuyck be as bad in the playoffs?”

Until Hellebuyck can prove otherwise, we docked him slightly for losing his edge in the playoffs.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 2 — Franchise

WPG

After three straight years in 2A, Marner moves back slightly to 2B following a fairly pedestrian season by his standards.

Marner may have scored at a 100-plus-point pace for the fourth straight season, but everything else about his game took a step back. He wasn’t his usual dynamic self and was far less involved in transition. Less efficient, too, turning fewer retrievals into exits and chipping the puck far more often than carrying it.

He didn’t look like himself and it led to the Leafs outchancing teams more with Marner on the bench than on the ice in 2023-24 for the first time since his rookie season.

Part of that was due to injury, but after a season like that and yet another weak playoff showing, it became hard for many fans to give Marner the benefit of doubt.

That makes the 2024-25 season — the last year of his contract — a potentially defining year in Marner’s career.

Still, any team would be much better off with Marner on it than off it. He is still an incredibly gifted offensive player and remains one of the game’s premier playmakers. He’s also tasked with a lot of defensive responsibility, something he handles better than almost any winger in the league.

Despite everything currently being said about him, Marner is still a franchise talent and one of the absolute best wingers in the world.

”He got beat up in the playoffs, but one of the worst things the Leafs could do would be to trade him,” one coach said.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 2 — Franchise

TOR

Early in the season, Pettersson looked like a player prepared to leap into the MVP tier. By the end of the season, he was playing like a candidate to drop out of 2B. Leaving him here seemed like a reasonable compromise, and our panel agreed.

At his best, Pettersson looks the part of a truly elite first-line center; he racks up points at five-on-five and on the power play while playing the sort of game you see from Selke finalists. It still feels like he’s an underrated defensive player, given the work he does on puck retrievals and zone exits. That continued even as his productivity dipped.

When he’s off his game, as he was during the postseason, he looks like a different player — one who struggles to exert his influence and raise the level of his linemates. One coach said his skating was a particular issue, and that he failed to adapt when beating defenders inside didn’t work. It didn’t help that J.T. Miller became the go-to choice to play tough minutes with top wingers.

Still, a rough finish doesn’t change Pettersson’s ceiling, nor does it change that he’s already an outstanding player worthy of his spot.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 2 — Franchise

VAN

Sometimes it’s hard to take the attention when your linemate is putting up a 144-point season. But when Kucherov is operating at his best, Point tends to be right alongside him.

”He can do it himself at times. He can be the straw that stirs the drink. As good as Kucherov is, when Point is going, he’s the guy that drives you crazy,” a scout said.

But until Point consistently becomes the driver of his line, there will be that separation between him and some of the centers of 2A and Tier 1. That paired with a few dips in his game — on the scoresheet and below the surface with fewer puck retrievals, zone entries and scoring chances — keeps him in 2B.

Between his explosive skating and clutch scoring, Point has the tools to move up — he just has to become The Star of Tampa Bay’s core.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 2 — Franchise

TBL

“Rantanen looked a little low to me.”

That’s what one exec told us and it’s probably going to be an opinion shared by many. The list of players with back-to-back 105-point seasons isn’t long. Rantanen gets credit for that and remains one of the best wingers in the world. But he’s in 2B for good reason.

For starters, it’s a lot easier to score 105 points in Colorado playing almost every shift with Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar (and Devon Toews). He also gets more power-play time than any other player in the league.

That kind of cushy usage isn’t something many people account for when looking at point totals. Over the last two years, Rantanen is 34th in five-on-five points per 60 and 27th in power-play points per 60. For context, Mitch Marner — his 2B colleague — is top 10 in both and a much better defender.

You’d also expect Colorado to win a lot more shifts based on its personnel advantage. And yet in each of the last two seasons the Avalanche have had a better expected goals rate with Rantanen off the ice.

All that works against having Rantanen with Kirill Kaprizov and Artemi Panarin in 2A or David Pastrnak and Matthew Tkachuk in 1C. They all either score as much, drive play better or both — and they do it with a lot less help.

There’s no doubting Rantanen’s franchise status, but at the top of this tier, the standards are higher.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 2 — Franchise

COL

Few players got people talking more than Bouchard, who took a massive leap during the season and then somehow upped the ante in the playoffs.

Bouchard’s playoff heroics cemented his franchise status, placing him just outside the league’s top five defensemen. His offensive impact is unimpeachable and even some of the defensive hiccups that plagued his game in past seasons were cleaned up considerably. During the playoffs, the Oilers allowed under 1.9 goals and expected goals per 60 with Bouchard on the ice — nearly half a goal better than when he was off.

He’s evolved into a vital difference-maker for Edmonton with one analyst advocating for a jump to 2A, a take the model certainly agrees with. That wasn’t a sentiment shared by others, though, who weren’t ready to place him that high. Not yet, not above Miro Heiskanen and Charlie McAvoy specifically.

The main concern with Bouchard is separating out the McDavid Effect, which isn’t easy given how frequently the two share the ice. Obviously McDavid’s presence helps a lot, but Bouchard does very well without him, too — it’s not a one-way street. If it were, Darnell Nurse would look like a $9 million defender far more often.

It’ll take time for people to see Bouchard isn’t just a McDavid product; he’s elite in his own right. His epic playoff run was a good start toward that — and Bouchard is only getting started himself.

A repeat performance and it’ll be difficult to keep him outside the top five next year.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 2 — Franchise

EDM

We didn’t quite see the best of Hischier last season — he, if nothing else, fell a little short of the tour de force in 2022-23 that pushed him from Tier 4 to Tier 2 — and wondered whether he deserved to drop into a group with players like J.T. Miller and Connor Bedard.

The response was nearly universal: Nothing doing.

”One of those things is not like the other,” an exec said. ”Hischier is a much better player than those two guys.”

They’re right, of course. Hischier’s game is well-rounded and substantive in ways players in Tier 3 can’t quite muster, even after a season that saw dips in offensive play-driving and defensive effectiveness. We know Hischier is capable of doing it all; he showed us as much in 2022-23, when he was nearly a point-per-game producer and the Selke runner-up.

The fact he couldn’t manage it for a second straight season, though, kept him out of Tier 2B. This year, that’s the home of players with longer track records, higher peaks and/or playoff production Hischier has yet to reach. The belief, clearly, is he’ll get there soon. Until that happens, he’s alone in 2C.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 2 — Franchise

NJD

McAvoy may not have the flash Makar, Hughes and Fox bring to a lineup. But that isn’t all that separates him from some of his contemporaries.

“For as good as he is, he’s predictable with what he does defensively,” a coach said.

“He’s a hell of a player, but one of his greatest strengths is a weakness. Someone who’s super active like that — taking lanes away, stepping up for big hits — when you’re that aggressive and it goes wrong, it can go really wrong.”

Without the same transcendent puck skills the Tier 1 guys have, he has to be the ultimate shutdown defenseman to match up to the league’s best. That was something McAvoy failed to do after landing in 2A last year with his throwback style. The Bruins gave up more expected and actual goals against at five-on-five relative to his teammates, and his zone entry defense suffered.

That’s why he slipped to 2C, although one insider advocated for a steeper drop.

”I love McAvoy, but he is not ahead of the Tier 3 defensemen,” the analyst said. “If Derek Forbort goes out before you on the PK and Shattenkirk before you on the PP, you are not a true alpha. Morrissey and Hedman are better choices in 2C.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 2 — Franchise

BOS

A second 40-goal season in a row, 11 more assists and a gentle push from those we spoke to was enough for us. After knocking on the franchise tier door in 2023, Nylander has broken it down in 2024 thanks to a career-best 98 points.

His work last season has increased his baseline, enough to safely project 90-plus points. It’s hard to keep that level of production out of Tier 2. Those points are earned, too, with Nylander having the elite tools necessary to create offense at a high level. Passing, shooting, recovering pucks, entering the zone with control — he does it all.

That was true before last season; what really improved was his consistency.

“There’s just something a little more dynamic about Nylander’s game when he wants to be on, and he wanted to be on more last year,” one exec said.

That’s always been the knock on Nylander, and his improved give-a-crap meter made a huge difference. The next step: better care without the puck. His defensive inability isn’t going to knock him out of Tier 2, but it was noted by one coach.

“He certainly needs to clean things up in his own zone, but nobody is going to mistake Panarin for someone who’s super dialed in his own zone. It’s the push and pull of your production vs. your flaws.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 2 — Franchise

TOR

Last offseason, figuring out Robertson’s spot was a bit of a challenge. Offensively, he’d been one of the 10 most productive players in the league, putting up 109 points and driving play from the wing, but we ultimately dropped him a bit based on input from inside the game. He’s fantastic, the thinking went, but not one of the dozen best players.

In 2023-24, he reinforced that notion; Robertson’s production and puck touches both dipped, putting him more squarely in ”not quite super-elite” category with significantly less debate. There’s still plenty to like — 80 points, for one, along with significantly more work in the defensive zone and the overall sense he’s maximizing his talent.

“When you watch Robertson,” one coach said, ”you’re like, ‘How good could he be?’ His production and the sum of his parts is so much better than any individual asset.”

None of that is meant to denigrate Robertson as a player, either. Take a look at his company in Tier 2C if you need proof.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 2 — Franchise

DAL

A year ago, Saros would have been deeper in the conversation for best goalie in the world with Shesterkin and Hellebuyck. In 2022-23, he saved 45 goals above expected in 64 regular season games. When he was injured late in the year, the Predators’ playoff hopes all but evaporated without their backbone.

But his 2023-24 was pretty pedestrian in comparison to the heights he can reach. While he found his footing down the stretch to help Nashville turn its season around, it wasn’t as dramatic of a rebound as Shesterkin’s. His Round 1 appearance vs. Vancouver was solid, but not otherworldly.

That’s the standard Saros has set for himself in years past, and that’s the standard he has to reach to compete with Shesterkin and Hellebuyck in Tiers 2A and 2B. But in 2C, he still places as a top-four goalie in the league which is no small feat — especially when considering the challenges his heavy workload brings.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 2 — Franchise

NSH

Like Saros, Sorokin couldn’t repeat his elite 2022-23, either.

Sorokin went from a sparkling 0.924 save percentage and 51 goals saved above expected in 62 games — the second-best mark of the analytics era — to outright losing his net to Varlamov down the stretch and into Round 1.

On paper, it wasn’t a disastrous season for Sorokin. Across 56 appearances, he ended the year with above-average numbers relative to his workload. But nothing about his year screamed ”elite number one” like his previous two seasons did. By year’s end, he was a 1B.

”I don’t know how good Sorokin is. He really benefited from having a really good team in front of him defensively,” a coach said. “He had a great year statistically two years ago, zero doubt about that, but I’ve never watched his game and thought ’That guy’s elite.’ Ever.”

Other insiders were higher on Sorokin and came to one clear consensus with his placement: a spot on the same tier as Saros.

“They’re pretty damn close to the same tier,” an executive said. “I don’t know how Patrick Roy f—ed him up if he did. But they’re equally capable goalies.”

“I would have Sorokin third, and would even consider him for second on my list. He should be at least in the same tier as Saros,” another executive added. “I know what happened with Sorokin this year, but if they switched teams, I don’t think the year Saros had would have kept him from falling behind Varlamov this year either.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 2 — Franchise

NYI

Tier 3 — All-Star

A top 60 player. Someone who wouldn’t be the best player on a contender, but would be an important part of any contending or championship core. A strong top-line forward, above average No. 1 defenseman, or borderline top five goalie.

Bedard may be the most difficult player to rank right now.

He flashed dynamic offensive gifts from the get-go throughout his rookie season, but also learned the difficulties of defending in the big leagues. It’s a tough balance to strike between what he’s shown, the level he likely hits and when he will get there.

One coach wondered why Bedard would be ranked above guys like Roope Hintz or Dylan Larkin given he hasn’t proven enough yet, a sentiment shared by a few others.

”Bedard may well be a superstar someday, but he was horrendous defensively last year,” one exec said. “He just got absolutely annihilated. I don’t believe that will last forever, but right now it’s not good.”

Fair enough, but this is a projection for next year where growth is to be expected. Phenoms of Bedard’s ilk tend to take massive leaps early and we’re expecting the same for him in his sophomore season.

What helps is Bedard’s supporting cast got bolstered considerably this summer. No one will mistake the Blackhawks for a playoff team, but there’s a lot more for Bedard to work with. That should alleviate some pressure, create more space for him with the puck and offer more assistance without it.

That extra support should allow Bedard to shine even brighter this season and he’s projected to approach a 90-point pace for that reason. That may be pushing it, but he’s the rare teenager worth making that kind of bet on.

“There’s still a lot of growth ahead of him and he won’t be in 3A for long, but that’s probably a fair place to put him right now,” one exec said.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 3 — All-Star

CHI

Dahlin fell out of Tier 2 for two primary reasons: He didn’t produce as much offensively as he did in 2022-23 (in terms of both points total and overall impact) and the Sabres regressed as a team.

Still, there’s plenty of reason to think a return to franchise-player status is still in the cards for the 24-year-old, starting with the fact he had a second consecutive season of decent defensive play. That’s exactly what some of his doubters wanted to see, and he delivered.

”I do (think he can defend at an elite level),” one coach said. ”I hear great things about him as a competitor. He can defend as well as all those (Tier 2) guys.”

If he shows the full picture for a full season — and some of that hinges on his teammates — he’ll regain his forward momentum. He’s got top-five D-man potential.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 3 — All-Star

BUF

Almost every element of Forsberg’s game rebounded last year. His shot volume and quality ticked up and so did his goal scoring. But maybe no aspect improved more than his puck moving. He was elite off the rush and in setting up his teammates with quality passers. And he was a reliable forechecker on the top line in Nashville.

Health was a big part of his glow-up after injuries contributed to a down year in 2022-23. Having a more offensive coach in Andrew Brunette helped, too, as did having more center support in Ryan O’Reilly. But unlike his career-scoring year in 2021-22, there was a more sustainable element to Forsberg’s excellence and no inflated shooting percentage behind it.

Forsberg wasn’t just a supporting part of the Predators’ surge back up the standings, he was a fundamental part of it — earning a return to Tier 3.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 3 — All-Star

NSH

It’s been a slow, steady upward climb for Guentzel; he’s risen one sub-tier in each of the past four years and now sits near the top of Tier 3A.

It might be tempting to attribute that to his recent move out of Sidney Crosby’s shadow, but Guentzel’s uptick began long before the Hurricanes acquired him via trade last winter. Playing with Crosby, it should be noted, hasn’t worked out for everyone — but nobody did a better job than Guentzel. His offensive contributions are varied and significant; he’s scored at a 33-goal pace over his last six seasons, consistently has positive effects on shot and chance generation and is an effective forechecker.

The fact his game translated seamlessly on another team can’t be ignored, either, even though it shouldn’t be a surprise; Guentzel’s hockey IQ has been obvious for a long time.

A coach and an exec each argued that his skill, productivity, smarts and history of playoff success should land him in Tier 2. We couldn’t quite get there — that’s the realm of players who are alpha dogs on their own line, and in Tampa, that’s Nikita Kucherov’s job. Still, it’s tough to imagine a better fit.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 3 — All-Star

TBL

The decisions around Hedman’s placement in recent years have been a challenge. Last year, he got the boot from Tier 1. This year, he steps further down with one exec questioning whether 3A was even too high.

Hedman’s 2023-24 season alone didn’t decide this. He’s still one of game’s premier breakout artists and was a fantastic quality-chance facilitator. Unsurprisingly, he rounded into form down the stretch to put up his best play when it mattered most, too.

But Hedman’s defensive numbers continue to trend in the wrong direction. Of the eight defensemen with a Defensive Rating of minus-2 or lower, Hedman is the only one placed above Tier 4.

A lack of support in recent years has likely weighed on Hedman and the return of Ryan McDonagh may help. That he still rates this high speaks to his reverence, but it does mean he’s on notice.

Pair that with other young defensemen around the league surpassing him and it has led to another slight demotion.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 3 — All-Star

TBL

A 57-goal, 94-point season and a Stanley Cup ring are one way to get a 3A promotion — even if a market correction is expected.

“He did what he did. Somehow everybody knows he’s going to get the puck in the bumper and he still had 27 power-play goals,” an executive said. “I would bet on some regression there — he shot 25 percent last year. I think that would suggest a slide, but I wouldn’t go past 3B.”

We’re expecting a 40-40 season and while increased scoring was part of the equation to his jump to 3A, it wasn’t everything.

Reinhart’s two-way play shined in all situations this year, earning him a fourth-place Selke Trophy finish. He retrieved pucks and helped Florida move out of its own end, and put in the work in the offensive zone. Playing with Aleksander Barkov elevated his game, but he also pushed his teammate to one of his best seasons yet.

”Reinhart is a way better player than I realized. He’s got a great stick and he does everything else pretty good,” one coach said.

The key to evaluating Reinhart is assessing his game outside the gaudy scoring totals. His Defensive Rating ranks third among forwards.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 3 — All-Star

FLA

After returning from injury to his worst season in years, opinions on Vasilevskiy are understandably all over the map.

”He’s fine where he is. I think he would have been higher a year ago,” one exec said.

“I don’t want to say it too loud, but certainly Vasilevskiy feels like he slipped,” another exec said.

”I wouldn’t have him first, but I certainly wouldn’t have him fifth,” one coach said.

”Vasilevskiy is not the same goalie he used to be and should be closer to Bobrovsky territory now,” one analyst said.

That’s the nature of goalies — opinions can be significantly more volatile. That shifts into overdrive when a franchise goalie in his 30s coming off a major injury has a down year like Vasilevskiy did. A subpar .900 save percentage raises the concern level.

One poor season isn’t enough to sway us into leaving Vasilevskiy out of the top five — but he is on notice, especially with some young studs knocking on the door behind him. Another year below expectations would make it hard to justify Vasilevskiy’s current standing.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 3 — All-Star

TBL

Despite some underperformances and injuries in New Jersey, Bratt’s consistency has been a bright spot. Last year, he pushed the boundaries for himself on the scoresheet and was a difference-maker on the Devils’ expected and actual goal creation at five-on-five.

Bratt’s a top guy in New Jersey, but not The Guy. He’s an elite puck-mover with some limitations. That stops him from moving up the ranks, even to 3A.

“I have a hard time with 3A vs. Bratt,” an analyst said. “Bratt has a similar profile and impact to most of those players, but was not on a playoff team and plays less ’playoff style’ hockey. If they can win a round this year in New Jersey, he might jump over some of those guys.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 3 — All-Star

NJD

If Demko is outside the group of truly elite goaltenders, it’s not based on his talent — it’s based on availability. He’s made more than 35 starts just twice in his career, and once was last season when knee injuries derailed his Vezina Trophy campaign and then ended his postseason in Game 2 of the first round. He may still not be ready for opening night.

”He still has to prove how good he is over a long period of time because of his injuries,” one coach said. We heard some variation of that concern from a few separate sources.

That said, Demko’s ability, when he’s healthy, is as obvious as his physical traits. He’s been outstanding in three of the last four seasons and saved more goals above expected in 2023-24 than all but three of his peers. Hopefully, for the Canucks, he can pick up where he left off.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 3 — All-Star

VAN

If you’re looking for a young defenseman to make ”the leap” in terms of public perception, Dobson would be a good pick. Still just 24, he’s coming off a 70-point, top-pair season for the Islanders. One exec characterized his game as a mix of ”high-end offense and enough of a two-way game to be used in a variety of ways.”

There was a bit of a concern among the panel that he’s being asked to do too much, given the quality of his partners and the difficulty of his minutes, but his success last season speaks for itself. A plus-17 Net Rating, with a plus-6 on defense specifically, is high-level stuff, and more could be on the way.

”I’m a huge fan,” a scout said. ”He plays in all situations, probably too much at times on Long Island. Minutes crunching, hockey sense — and he’s doing it a young age.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 3 — All-Star

NYI

After flying under the radar for years, no one is sleeping on Forsling anymore.

Not after his spectacular playoff work where he often looked like the best player on the ice with his positioning, smarts and anticipation against some of the league’s best players. Forsling was a force. He’s not just Florida’s best defenseman — he’s one of the best in the world.

“His ability to defend and move the puck and think three steps ahead is so good,” one exec said.

Where he stands in the league’s hierarchy, though, was a point of contention for some. One exec had him closer to the 18-30 range, while another analyst was higher on the other defenders in Tier 3.

It’s natural to question a leap from unranked to Tier 3. That’s especially true for Forsling, who has often faced doubts regarding just how good he really is given his eye-popping numbers with the Panthers.

He certainly looked that good during the season, though, to those paying attention. And he looked that good en route to a Stanley Cup. With the entire hockey world watching, he proved any previous excuse laid against him — namely that he was the product of his partners — was moot. He’s the one driving the bus in shutdown minutes and he’s one of the best in the world at doing so.

Forsling is the real deal.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 3 — All-Star

FLA

A year ago, we gave Hintz the bump from 4A to 2C thinking he could perform at a point-per-game pace and contend for the Selke Trophy. Things just didn’t quite go according to plan.

Hintz was still effective in Dallas, just not to his usual standards.

He retrieved more pucks in the defensive end and helped the Stars break out efficiently, but he took a step back in a major area of strength with fewer possession entries. Hintz shot the puck less at five-on-five and wasn’t as effective on the forecheck, either. Those dips trickled onto the scoresheet.

“Hintz had a weird year, I was surprised at how little he produced,” an executive said.

Maybe the Stars’ top line gets a spark in Wyatt Johnston if he sticks there full-time this season, but Hintz is going to have to pick up the pace himself to move back up.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 3 — All-Star

DAL

Picture Chris Kunitz at the peak of his powers next to Sidney Crosby — how high would he rank? That was the dilemma we faced ranking Hyman after his 54 goals last year.

Devoid of context, those are eye-catching numbers. Of course, there’s the pesky McDavid Effect at work, making it difficult to know exactly what Hyman would be if he didn’t play with the best player in the world.

It’s important to not discredit Hyman entirely, though. He’s arguably the league’s best grinder, a strong forechecker with a nose for the net who has shown a special knack for playing with special players. The relationship between him and McDavid isn’t a complete one-way street — Hyman makes the top line better by doing the dirty work better than any other player could.

That holds a lot of value; enough to land him in Tier 3. This generation’s Kunitz may be propped up by this generation’s Crosby — but Hyman is still a damn good player in his own right.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 3 — All-Star

EDM

The hype for Morrissey may have come a season too soon. In 2022-23, his offense was high-end but some defensive cracks held him back. In 2023-24, he was legitimately one of the best all-around defensemen in the league, which is why he’s jumped up to 3B. His plus-16 Net Rating ranks seventh among defensemen, though the panel was a little lower on him.

Morrissey’s knack for sending stretch passes sparks the Jets forward group and he’s a big offensive driver from the blue line. While that part of his game outweighs his defensive side, steady improvement on that front while taking on his usual heavy workload should put Morrissey back in the Norris Trophy conversation.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 3 — All-Star

WPG

Slavin is the definition of dependable, or as one executive said: “vanilla good in that way.”

”I think the problem with Slavin is he’s kind of automatic and that sometimes gets a little sleepy.”

Slavin’s reliability allows management to interchange some of the blueliners around him. He is the backbone of the Hurricanes thanks to his elite shutdown game, and his discipline makes it all the more impressive. The offense is still relatively quiet and keeps him out of the franchise tier, but his consistency makes him a Tier 3 mainstay. You know what you’re getting in Slavin.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 3 — All-Star

CAR

For Swayman, there’s a simple path to Tier 2: Prove you can handle a starter’s workload.

Swayman has been sensational in split starts over the last two seasons and was a revelation as the go-to guy during the 2024 playoffs. It’s why his projected Net Rating for next season is so high — right in line with that of Igor Shesterkin and Ilya Sorokin. Only two goalies, Connor Hellebuyck and Linus Ullmark, have saved more goals above expected per game than Swayman.

It’s one thing to extrapolate what he’s done into a heavier workload, though. It’s another for him to actually do it. That transition shouldn’t be treated as a given and it’s why he lands in Tier 3 … for now.

”There’s clearly upside in terms of being a top five goalie,” one exec said. “His numbers have been there in a smaller workload and even when he struggles his floor isn’t that low. ”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 3 — All-Star

BOS

Now that Aleksander Barkov is properly rated, Thomas feels like the logical choice to lead the next era of ”most underrated” lists.

“He plays on the penalty kill, scored 86 points, ticks off a lot of boxes for transition and possession value, and he’s started to build in detail,” one exec said.

His production makes Thomas an obvious Tier 3 candidate and it was great to see him more willing to shoot last year. What sets Thomas apart, though, is how much he’s doing with the puck, who he’s doing it against and who he’s doing it with.

Thomas carries a heavy burden with and without the puck, making his ability to drive play against the toughest competition of any forward last season all the more impressive. That’s even harder to handle on a Blues team that offers little support around him.

There was some disappointment with Thomas’ play in 2022-23, but an exceptional 2023-24 campaign has him back in Tier 3 with ease.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 3 — All-Star

STL

It’s tough to bring up one Tkachuk and not the other — and Brady seems to be gaining ground, even though Matthew had the edge in Net Rating (plus 17 to plus 15) and, of course, a couple other important areas.

One of them: Ottawa has promise, but the Panthers have a Cup. ”(Brady) plays like (Matthew) but has not had anything resembling the same level of skill around,” one analyst said. Brady also has major ground to gain on Matthew as a playmaker and 200-foot contributor, but he’s a net-front menace with a unique set of skills, even if his production has plateaued for the time being.

”I just don’t think there’s a manager in the league who wouldn’t take Brady Tkachuk right now almost over anybody on the winger list because of the leadership, the physicality, the way he plays,” an exec said. ”He’s just such a unicorn in our league right now.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 3 — All-Star

OTT

The raw skill has always been there for Barzal to be a franchise player. His performance hasn’t always been reflective of his true talent, keeping him in Tier 3 for three straight years.

Barzal scored at a point-per-game pace for the first time since his rookie season and was once again an elite puck-mover. That’s why one analyst advocated for him to move up to 2C.

We ultimately didn’t give him that bump just yet after reaching last year’s heights at wing, not center. And while there’s nothing wrong with being a game-changing playmaker, he still hasn’t pushed himself to be more of an all-around threat.

Can a full season of Roy as coach change that?

“I am not sure there is much more for Roy to get out of him in terms of impact. He is the biggest possession hog in the OZ in the league and that has been consistent across multiple coaches,” another analyst noted.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 3 — All-Star

NYI

It feels like there’s another level that Boldy can get to — a scary thought considering the 23-year-old is already one of the game’s better wingers. He has point-per-game upside and it feels like only a matter of time before he gets there.

Boldy’s spot in Tier 3 may feel premature because he hasn’t yet hit that mark — most of the forwards around him have already done so. What gives Boldy an edge, especially compared to the wingers in Tier 4, is his surprisingly effective defensive game. The Wild — a consistently elite defensive team — have given up fewer chances with Boldy on the ice in each of the last two seasons. That’s what propels his plus-three Defensive Rating, among the highest of any forward on this list.

“Boldy is too low, he is sneaky effective as a 200-foot winger,” one analyst said. “Much of the rest of Tier 3 are strictly offensive wingers.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 3 — All-Star

MIN

Doughty’s transformation into a low-flash, high-substance player seems to be complete. Last season, despite a workload against top competition, the Kings gave up fewer five-on-five goals and quality chances with him on the ice. His plus-12 Defensive Rating was truly elite — enough to counterbalance some iffy offensive impacts and put him on the periphery of the Norris Trophy discussion. That’s ”true shutdown defender” stuff.

”Another guy that I am surprised is still having success, given how cooked he looked a couple years ago,” one analyst said, praising his ability to ”manage the game.”

An exec was more blunt: “He’s still such an impact guy.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 3 — All-Star

LAK

Everything changed for Edmonton after acquiring Ekholm, the missing piece. He’s a two-way stud who unlocked Bouchard’s enormous potential and made life easier for Edmonton’s star forwards.

There was a time where Ekholm looked to be declining, but at 34 he’s still somehow playing his best hockey. He does so many little things well with and without the puck as a vital cog to one of the best pairs in hockey. The Oilers’ top duo has outscored opponents 135-72 (playoffs included) since Ekholm landed in Edmonton.

Ekholm may not have as many points as the defenders around him, but he’s a guy who helps win games.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 3 — All-Star

EDM

Improvements in Utah could mean a big year for Keller who took a slight step back last season in scoring.

That’s not for lack of trying, considering how involved he was in bringing the puck up the ice and his own increased playmaking ability. His scoring chance assist rate took a healthy jump last season which should mean a return back above point-per-game territory with more talent around him.

“He’s not as dynamic as Bratt, but as far as influencing offense, he’s closer to that than guys like Verhaeghe and Hagel,” one coach said. “He can control shifts by just keeping the puck, and that’s a hard thing to do.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 3 — All-Star

UTA

We contemplated bumping Larkin up a bit after he adequately followed up the best season of his career — again averaging more than 3 points per 60 — but ultimately kept him in 3C for the second straight year. He’s an upper-echelon first-line center, but just barely, and his placement reflects that. A few voters said they wish they could find a way to argue him up the list but couldn’t quite figure out who he’d bump down. That’s the challenge of the exercise.

”He’s a beast out there,” one coach said. ”He’s hard to get off the puck.”

While the possibility Larkin has plateaued is very real, there’s also a path forward. If Lucas Raymond’s output and the chemistry between Larkin and Alex DeBrincat both continue to grow, for example, he could end up as an 85-point center on a playoff team. That’s a combination worthy of 3B.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 3 — All-Star

DET

Over the last three years there are only four centers with more points than Miller’s 284 — and they’re all in Tier 1. Miller is here instead, at the tail end of Tier 3 behind 16 other centers.

Egregious? Maybe. But the overwhelming sentiment from those we spoke to was that our initial spot for Miller — in 3A — was too high.

”Has everybody forgotten about PDO? Last year was a sugar high,” one analyst said. “That’s where this kind of loses me — his numbers aren’t real.”

Miller played tough minutes and won them easily, outscoring opponents 64-38. But unsustainable percentages influenced those figures heavily, masking a 49-49 split in expected goals. That mark is probably a little closer to reality.

Some might argue the things Miller does leads to a good PDO, but his work creating chances last year was not nearly good enough to justify a 15.7 percent on-ice shooting percentage.

Still, playing tough minutes to an expected draw is a good thing. Scoring 100 points in a shutdown role is a good thing. That improvement is why he jumped to Tier 3.

But it’s tough to justify placing him much higher, especially considering the sentiment around him a year ago. If Miller can pull it off again, he’ll move up next season.

For now, Vancouver, feel free to grab your pitchforks.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 3 — All-Star

VAN

Stützle was expected to leap from last year’s 3A standing into a franchise player. Instead, he took a big step back with his scoring pace and play-driving both wilting. His Offensive Rating fell short of projections by five which was among the worst differentials on the Senators last year.

“I know his point totals put him up there, but he’s not really a center right now. When you talk about the all-around game, I think Thomas has more,” one executive said.

Roster tweaks and a coaching change should help Stützle get back on track this year, but after feedback from insiders, we’re taking more of a wait-and-see approach.

”He’s not heavy enough yet. I look at some of (the people around him), they dominate. … Stützle hasn’t shown that physical ability yet. I don’t mind where he’s at, though,” a coach said.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 3 — All-Star

OTT

A midseason injury took a chunk out of Theodore’s overall numbers, so it’s worth reinforcing just how good he was in 2023-24; he produced at a 73-point rate and was an effective defender along Vegas’ second pair.

Over the course of a full season, that would be enough to put him on a Norris shortlist — and it shouldn’t surprise anybody. Theodore, when healthy, has been the offensive engine among the Golden Knights defense. Alex Pietrangelo is still a bigger name, and Noah Hanifin is the fresh trade acquisition who’s set to play on the top pair, but Theodore has been — and will likely continue to be — a huge part of Vegas’ success. Calling him a ”luxury” is probably selling his importance short.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 3 — All-Star

VGK

Last year, in the wake of a season that established him as an offensive force with a one-of-one skillset, the league wondered how much scarier Thompson would be if he played half-decent defense. His size/skating/skill combo, the thinking went, wouldn’t necessitate much more.

He was indeed half-decent — a Defensive Rating of zero represented a major upgrade — but it came at significant cost. His five-on-five point total dipped from 55 (25G, 30A) to 29 (16G, 13A). Overall, he went from 94 points to 56. Not good. Now the question is a bit different. For Thompson, is the choice truly one side of the puck or the other?

As one coach said: ”Can he do it while playing complete? Will he be able to (produce) to the level while still playing winning hockey?”

Here, we’re giving him the benefit of the doubt. A coaching change (Lindy Ruff in, Don Granato out) and a healthy hand — hello, one-timers — should help. If not, the questions will get even tougher.

”If you’re overly concerned about what Thompson’s doing in his own end,” another coach said, ”and that means he’s a 50-60 point guy, I don’t think the juice is worth the squeeze.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 3 — All-Star

BUF

There are certainly gigs worse than playing alongside Cale Makar, but Toews remains an ideal partner for Colorado’s all-world defenseman. Since 2021-22, the Avs have outscored their opponents 153-94 when both are on the ice at five-on-five.

Just as importantly, Toews has shown an ability to handle business on his own; in about 1,100 minutes away from Makar over the last three seasons, the Avs’ expected goals percentage has held steady.

”Some players make you nervous because they’ve only had success when paired with a superstar,” an exec said. ”Toews has shown more range than that.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 3 — All-Star

COL

Those who know puck, know just how good Weegar is. He’s an efficient do-it-all puck-mover who heavily influences play in all three zones with how active he is. Few defenders have as many combined puck touches off possession-driving plays (retrievals, exits, entries, shots, shot assists) as Weegar does.

Thanks to Calgary’s mass exodus, Weegar was finally able to flex his puck skills in a more offensive role to close the season — and ran with it. He got a crack at running the top power play, scoring 16 points in his final 16 games last season.

Weegar is, deservedly, the unquestioned top dog in Calgary now and that newfound production gives him some upward potential for next season.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 3 — All-Star

CGY

Tier 4 — Star

A top 100 player. Someone who would be a strong piece within a contending or championship core, but not a go-to option. An average top line forward, below average number one defenseman, or top 10 goalie.

Eriksson Ek gets a boost from 4B thanks to his consistency down the middle in Minnesota. His scoring no longer looks flukey, it’s part of his game and balances out his high-end defense. Eriksson Ek’s a hard-nosed center who frustrates opponents with his shutdown play in all situations. He is the embodiment of being ”tough to play against” between his defense, elite forechecking and knack for driving to the net and creating chaos. Despite his usage and workload, he still tends to draw more penalties than he takes, giving Minnesota much-needed power-play opportunities.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Hagel’s presence in 4A might be a surprise, but it’s hard to ignore his recent work scoring 75 points last year with the Lightning. His 64 points in 2022-23 were no fluke.

He’s Tampa Bay’s answer to Carter Verhaeghe — a play-driving winger with surprising effectiveness who works well with superstars and can help create a ton of chances. He brings a lot to the table in all three zones and is especially menacing at even strength.

One exec complimented Hagel’s tenacity while another compared him to Patric Hornqvist.

“They bring elements that make their lines tougher to play against,” the exec said.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Offensively, Hamilton still has the sauce.

Despite being relegated to the second power play, Hamilton still scored 16 points in 20 games last season. From a play-driving perspective, he was monstrous with an eye-popping relative expected goals rate that would’ve been a career high. It didn’t translate to results, but the Devils were buzzing with Hamilton jumping into the play and leading the rush with more frequency.

So why the drop to Tier 4A? It comes down to uncertainty — he missed 62 games last season — and some slipping defensive numbers since his arrival in New Jersey. If he can clean that up over a full season, Hamilton will be back to his usual spot in Tier 3.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Johnston’s ascension this season and star-powered playoff performance made us question if he was ready for Tier 3, but some of the insiders brought us down to Earth.

“Some of (the playoff stuff) is sensationalized, even by really educated hockey people. It’s a smaller sample size. Are you some magical person who changes yourself when the playoff comes around?” one coach said.

Unless the playoffs were the first real glimpse at what Johnston can do on a national stage. In a way, it was an extension of the regular season, when his versatility and scoring chance creation made the Stars a better team. The difference is he was trusted more in the playoffs, with a boost of 3:38 minutes, on average, from the regular season. We’re accounting for that expanded role in our projections of where his game will go this season, while still tempering expectations slightly with a 4A placement.

“He’s very intelligent and he finds a way to produce. It’s rare that someone doesn’t have a flaw that shows up when you watch or look at the numbers. He just doesn’t have that,” the coach added.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Karlsson’s first season in Pittsburgh didn’t go according to plan. How much of that is on him? Depends on who you ask.

An exec was blunt: ”He really is sort of a poor defender. And I don’t think he helped Pittsburgh at all last year. I think he actually caused maybe more issues. The sum of his game right now is not great.”

One analyst thinks Karlsson could have a Tier 3-caliber season, despite some ”bumping up” against Kris Letang for minutes. Another said the Penguins power play’s abysmal performance was ”almost statistically impossible to replicate,” which helps set the tone for a bounce-back. Karlsson’s impact at five-on-five was positive, thanks in part to still-outstanding puck-moving ability. The question is whether that’s enough.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Oettinger is held in high regard despite an uneven 2023-24 that saw him put up both a save percentage (.905) and goals saved above expected number (1.5) just a shade above league average. For a goalie who’d gone .914 and .919 in his first two seasons as a starter, it was disappointing.

He remains one of the league’s few young goaltenders with high-end size, skill, pedigree and (at times) performance. That package puts him above peers who might’ve been better last season.

”Maybe some of that is what I think he can be, and maybe that’s not fair,” said a coach who argued to push Oettinger even farther up the list. ”When I watch him, I say, ’That guy’s got the chance to be elite.’”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

The question surrounding Stone was always how many games he’d miss — not how he or the Golden Knights would play when he was actually in the lineup. The effect the 200-foot winger had on his team, assuming he was healthy, was undeniable.

Last season was different. Stone, good as he remains, was less of a positive force; the Golden Knights’ expected goals percentage with him on the ice was just a shade over 50, and they allowed 2.79 expected goals against/60, the worst of his Vegas career. Not a huge downturn, but still worth watching.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Suzuki’s ultimate ceiling has been the biggest question mark surrounding him in recent years. Could he still become a true No. 1 center?

In 2023-24, we got our answer with a 33-goal, 77-point campaign featuring some stellar defensive impacts in a difficult role. Suzuki has arrived.

“We’re big fans,” one exec said of how his team viewed Suzuki. “We see him in the same two-way category as Nico Hischier.”

That’s high praise, but we’re going to need to see Suzuki do it again before we bump him up to Tier 3 for good. Especially with some folks still on the fence.

“I like Nick Suzuki as a hockey player, but I don’t think he’s a No. 1 center,” one coach said. “He’s really good, I just don’t know if he’s at that level.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Svechnikov started the past three seasons somewhere in Tier 3. There aren’t many players in the league with his combination of size, skill and skating.

Productivity, though, hasn’t quite followed — his best full season has been 2021-22, when he put up 69 points in 78 games. Last season was an odd one; he started at less than 100 percent in the wake of ACL surgery, then missed time with a few more minor injuries. He was fine, putting up 3.12 points per 60 (same as Jack Eichel and just 0.02 behind Sebastian Aho), but the clock is starting to tick on superstar upside.

”I would’ve thought he was going to take off, and he hasn’t quite done that,” an exec said. ”He’s a tough one because I feel like there’s a fatigue with him where you keep expecting him to really take a leap and he hasn’t done it yet.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

From Computer Boy™ Find to Stanley Cup champion, Verhaeghe’s earned his place in these rankings over the last few years. He is an ideal supporting player a contending team should want on their top line.

Verhaeghe puts in the regular-season work to help his team reach the postseason; last year he did it with another 35-goal, 70-plus-point season. He wasn’t up to his usual elite standards off the rush, hence the dip to 4A, but he was still dangerous in the offensive zone at five-on-five. His clutch, reliable scoring in the playoffs is where Vehaeghe’s really made a name for himself.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Talented as Werenski is, his injury issues are starting to count against him. He’s missed 161 games over the last five seasons due to, among other things, a torn labrum in his shoulder and an ankle injury.

”I still think Werenski can be a great player, but I can’t fight for him,” one coach said. ”He hasn’t played enough.”

What neither we nor our panel are willing to do, though, is penalize him for the lack of talent around him. He can do heavy lifting while the puck is on his stick, and he’s shown enough game-changing ability there to lift himself above the names in Tiers 4B and 4C. Those players tend to get help from teammates Werenski does not.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Going into 2023-24, Buchnevich’s teams scored half a goal per 60 more than expected in each of his last four seasons. He looked like someone with a knack for elevating shots into dangerous chances and it showed with back-to-back seasons in which he paced above 85 points. It’s why he landed in Tier 3 last fall.

This year he falls back to 4B, a result of that magic evaporating last season. Without as many goals above expected, Buchnevich’s production fell to a disappointing 63 points.

He should bounce back to 75 points in 2024-25, but he needs to do more to land back in Tier 3.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

”I have him circled. I think he’s a stud.”

One coach was effusive with praise for Faber, the rookie sensation who ate huge minutes for the Wild in all situations. He’s a coach’s dream.

”He can match up against the other team’s best at a super young age and that’s a hard thing to do,” the coach said. “If you can do that, I think you’re in a really good spot.”

Faber’s numbers did dip in the second half after an extremely strong start and it’s worth noting he was playing through an injury at that time. At full health and with more help around him, Faber should be a safe bet to solidify his standing as a No. 1 defender in his sophomore season.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

If you’re wondering why Calgary didn’t fetch a bigger haul for Hanifin, some folks inside the game can shed some light. A few we spoke to simply aren’t sold on him.

”I don’t think he is a truly high-end offensive player, and I don’t think he is a great defender,” one exec said. “I just don’t see him having a standout skill set to make him a true No. 1 D.”

Tough crowd.

While Hanifin may not have a standout skill set, he doesn’t seem to have a glaring weakness either. He can eat tough minutes and was a play-driving monster when he arrived in Vegas, which contributes to his higher-than-expected Net Rating.

Can he keep that up in 2024-25, or are those insiders right to be skeptical?

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Few players generated more discussion than Jarvis, who put up 67 well-rounded points and an elite defensive rating in his third full NHL season. We initially decided to go all in on that optimism and place him in Tier 3C, where he had his defenders.

”I’m not saying he can carry a line,” one coach said, ”but he’s got (Jake Guentzel) qualities to him.”

Ultimately, we dropped him a bit due to his lack of track record (though that’s not quite his fault). The players ahead of him have been part of more productive lines for a longer period of time. That’s the next step.

”I like Jarvis’ game better, but what I’m curious about is the production ceiling,” one exec said. ”Is he going to reach a high level or is he just going to just be a really good two-way producer?”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Konecny showed his 2022-23 breakthrough wasn’t a fluke. The Flyers’ brightest star put up another dynamic season at five-on-five. He excelled in transition and was a dangerous passer and a reliable goal scorer. Plus his all-around game continued to progress under coach John Tortorella.

That’s why he’s moved back up after slotting in 4C last year.

“Just a really hard guy to play against. He drives that team,” an executive said. ”It’s gone hand in hand with the evolution in Philadelphia. His identity and playing style do well under Tortorella. I think it’s become his team.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Unsurprisingly, the player who felt the absence of Patrice Bergeron most was his on-ice brother. Marchand’s play dipped in almost every meaningful category, enough to easily drop him to Tier 4.

The biggest issue was Marchand’s inability to drive play up to his usual standards. It was the first time the Bruins outscored and outchanced opponents more with Marchand off the ice in his career (excluding 2009-10 when he only played 20 games).

Marchand isn’t the impact player he once was. That’s to be expected at 36. But he has a long enough resume to earn the benefit of doubt that he can bounce back — especially with Elias Lindholm’s arrival.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Pietrangelo’s dip — he had one of the worst offensive seasons of his career, was on the ice for an uncharacteristically rough 3.27 goals against per 60, and struggled heavily to break the puck out with control — surprised at least one member of our panel. ”He just looks less active. Even his minutes went down a little bit at even strength. I think he’s just getting to that age (at 34),” the exec said.

As they and others noted, though, there’s reason to expect a bounce-back; Pietrangelo should get a full season with Noah Hanifin as his partner, rather than Alec Martinez. That’s a major upgrade.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

There was some sticker shock when Sanderson signed his massive extension last summer. One year later, it looks like a steal.

In a seriously tough role, Sanderson was a play-driving force for the Senators earning huge relative impacts at both ends of the ice. He took a massive leap forward in his sophomore year driven by some incredible work with the puck in transition. Sanderson was one of the league’s best at getting pucks out and up the ice at a high volume. If he can add some production to that package, Sanderson has franchise potential.

“Sanderson looks really good. He’s going to be a really good player,” an exec said.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Spurgeon was a tricky one after playing just 16 regular-season games last year. He had strong results on both ends of the ice that limited time, and the blue line — especially Jacob Middleton, his mainstay partner of 2022-23 — missed him dearly while he was sidelined. At 34 years old, though, decline may be coming for the veteran defenseman, which knocked him down to 4B after spending the last few years up in Tier 3.

“Spurgeon and Pietrangelo are both trending down, I would take guys below them in the rankings. Just not as active as they used to be,” an analyst said.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

With a career-high 77 points last season, Trocheck makes his Player Tiers debut — and not just as a result of expanding to 150 players.

Does his value match those of other elite 1Cs around the league? Not quite. But he has carved out the perfect spot in New York as a 1B between Panarin and Lafrenière. Trocheck adds an element of utility and dimension to the Rangers’ most productive line; he pressures opponents with his forechecking and matches that with skillful passing and shotmaking. His pesky playoff presence and clutch scoring only boost his profile.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Ullmark’s been a pivotal part of one of the league’s best goalie tandems over the last two years with sterling numbers in Boston.

But there is a reason Swayman earned the starter’s net in the playoffs (and onward) and Ullmark was moved. Plus there is the uncertainty of playing outside the Bruins’ bubble in Ottawa. That’s what separates these two right now.

“Ullmark scares me a bit, but that might be more because of the environment he’s stepping into,” a coach said.

Another executive has more confidence in Ullmark playing for the Senators.

“Do I believe the Boston system helps? Sure. But he was good in Buffalo so it’s hard to say he was a system guy.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Zibanejad’s been a mainstay in 3B over the last few years as the average top-line center. But his role and value have both shifted a bit this past season. With dips in his shot volume and scoring, especially at five-on-five, Zibanejad’s line isn’t the Rangers’ go-to as often anymore. While he did pick up the pace back in the defensive zone with more puck retrievals in his own end, New York needed more from him offensively.

That’s why Zibanejad feels more like a 1B in New York across from Trocheck, and why they both land in 4B.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Carolina’s defensive system and Slavin’s stability have helped stave off age-related decline for Burns. While his scoring faded a bit at five-on-five last year, he still helped bolster the Hurricanes’ expected and actual goal generation relative to his teammates. The top pair was steady and reliable back in their own zone.

The Hurricanes have helped revitalize Burns’ game back to the level of a top-pair defenseman, which is why he’s still in Tier 4. He’s just down two sub-tiers due to some uncertainty; his age brings that, and so does Carolina’s defensive depth shakeup.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

For the most part, one-dimensional goal-scorers land a little farther down the list. Connor’s placement here is a testament to just how well he performs in that single dimension. Last season, despite a post-injury slump in January and February (one in 10 games), Connor finished top-10 among wingers in goals per 60 (1.59). It was the second-best such mark of his career and a major uptick from 2022-23 (1.14).

Perhaps ironically, he dropped in the Tiers for a second straight season. That shouldn’t be all that surprising; a few years ago, there was reason to believe there was untapped potential in other areas of his game. At this point, at nearly 28 he’s probably a finished product. Our panelists generally seem to think so.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

For Dunn, the question was whether he’d adequately follow up his breakout 2022-23. He managed, again producing about 2.0 points per 60 for the Kraken. That put him in the top 30 among defensemen, ahead of players like Heiskanen, Burns and Werenski. Not bad company.

That doesn’t mean he’s their equal, though — at least, not yet in the eyes of our panel members, who took some light umbrage with Dunn’s initial placement in 4A. ”I don’t know if I believe it all the time,” an exec said.

Dunn’s production, nice as it is, generally comes against middling competition, at least among his peer group. We know he drives offense. Now it’s time to see if he can do it against better players.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

”Fiala is a cute little player,” a coach said — and he didn’t entirely mean it as a compliment. It’s not that he doesn’t add plenty to a lineup; high-end speed, 30-goal production and playmaking from the wing doesn’t grow on trees, nor does his offensive impact in general. He’s also a balanced player, in terms of rush vs. cycle.

Overall, though, he falls a bit short of true top-line status. More goals, as always, would help. As one exec put it: ”Productive, but he can’t really play in your top line or top six as much as you’d like.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Most may not know just how good Thomas Harley is, but they’re about to.

The 22-year-old took the league by storm in his first full season and he’s only getting started. Though there are 26 names ahead of Harley’s here, the model is much more bullish, projecting him as the 17th best.

Maybe it’s too early for that, but Harley was that good last season. If he’s not already a No. 1 defenseman, the 2024-25 season should solidify it. Few defensemen in the league were as involved as Harley at retrieving pucks, exiting the zone, and skating the puck up ice. To do all that with the efficiency he did makes his work even more special.

“He isn’t shy to get up in the play then let his skating be the thing that lets him recover,” one coach said. “To be a young player that’s that assertive (is impressive).”

It’s only been one year and it’s easier to do a lot of that skating next to Heiskanen, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see this ranking look too low by the end of the season. Harley is the real deal.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Horvat’s second impression on Long Island went a lot smoother than his first. He had a stronger impact on the Islanders’ offensive generation and the scoring to match. While he didn’t match the heights of his torrid pace in Vancouver pre-deadline back in 2022-23, he was still a 30-plus scorer in the regular season.

Maybe the last two seasons should recalibrate scoring expectations for Horvat. Still, the reality is that he isn’t exactly a true 1C; it helps to have Barzal to share the heavy lifting, and Nelson behind him. That keeps him in 4C for the second straight year.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Long regarded as one of the very best defensive forwards of his generation, Kopitar probably deserves a bit more praise for continuing to produce at a first-line level offensively even as he enters his late 30s. He’s now put up consecutive 70-point seasons for the first time since 2011-12.

It helps to have Phillip Danault around to eat at least some of the tough defensive minutes, but make no mistake: Kopitar still plays — and thrives — against top competition. The Kings are better across the board when he’s on the ice, even if he’s no longer a true top-end first-line center.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Pre-deadline, Markstrom was having a monster season. Public models all agreed on that, but Evolving-Hockey’s gave him extra credit for saves made within a 10-second window of a giveaway. That ability should make him a match for the Devils’ fast-paced style that can lead to some costly defensive breakdowns.

Should New Jersey expect Vezina caliber? Probably not. But Markstrom should stay a very capable starter over the next few years.

“It’s funny seeing Ullmark ahead of Markstrom here,” one executive said. “Just because New Jersey had the first move in the marketplace and they chose Markstrom.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

We had high expectations for Meier in his first full season in New Jersey after falling short post-deadline in 2023. But his 2023-24 was extremely disappointing, sending him down from last year’s 3B placement.

Injuries weighed down Meier. So did iffy deployment, including a lot of time outside the top six and top power play, plus a lot of reps at left wing. Healthy and under new coach Sheldon Keefe, he’s poised to bounce back — but he has to prove it to move back up.

”He’s a beast and he can shoot it, but I’d have him down,” a coach said.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Raymond was initially lower to start, but he found a few fans around the league who see him having big breakout potential in 2024-25.

“It’s the finish. It feels like that sets him up to take a big step,” one exec said. “There’s a chance he sort of storms out this year.”

That certainly showed to close the season where Raymond caught fire, scoring six goals and 11 points in Detroit’s final six games. Couple that with better play-driving impacts — a result of stronger chance creation and more attention to detail — and it’s no wonder Raymond looks like a prime breakthrough candidate.

How high does he end up on next year’s list?

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

There are only four other defensemen with a Defensive Rating as weak as Rielly’s on this list. Three of them — Hamilton, Karlsson, Werenski — reside in Tier 4A, Rielly’s usual home. The other is Chabot in 5C.

Rielly is the middle ground in that dynamically flawed collection. He’s not quite as impactful as the first group, but certainly offers more pop than Chabot.

It does help that Rielly elevates his game come playoff time. Still, it’s hard to ignore his porous defensive game, along with a drop in puck-moving ability that manifested last season.

With Tanev around, we’ll likely see the best of Rielly this season. Whether that’s enough to push him back to 4A is to be determined.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Seider is at a crossroads: is he the next Hedman or the next Jones?

Those seem like the two likeliest paths in front of Seider depending on who you ask. He’s either a franchise guy-to-be or an uncomfortable No. 1.

Last season’s stagnation had Seider leaning towards the latter, though even that path isn’t a lock with one exec saying he was higher on Jones at the same age.

Seider’s struggles last season were largely a result of being buried with by far the toughest usage in the league. Competition, teammates, zone starts — no one had it more difficult than him. Few players would survive under that heavy load, let alone thrive.

Some inside the game were willing to give Seider a free pass because of that. Most weren’t quite as keen, however.

“It’s funny, I’ll say I’m not sure about him and people will go ‘you’re insane, he’s so good,’” one exec said. “But he just got f—ing caved in on that top pair in Detroit.”

“It’s hard to really shine in those minutes,” another exec said. “I don’t want to hold it against him too much that he hasn’t dominated under those circumstances, but I also don’t want to give him full credit until he does show that he can really dominate.”

For Seider to reach Tier 3 and beyond, he needs to prove he can handle the heat — as hot as it is — much better than he currently has.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

The exaggerated panic in Leafs land around Tavares reached a fever pitch over the last year — as if he isn’t a 65-point center that earns 55 percent of the expected goals like clockwork.

Among those inside the game? Not a peep about his placement here just outside the league’s top 24 centers. Contract aside, Tavares is still a very effective player.

Tavares’ projected Net Rating still grades out highly given his combination of production and play-driving. He may not be the player he once was, but the narrative around him right now is bizarre considering the player he still is.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 5 — Support

A top 150 player. Someone who would offer strong support to a contending or championship core, but who wouldn’t be an integral piece within it. A below average top-line forward, a strong No. 2 defenseman, or an above average starter.

Bobrovsky’s playoff excellence and regular-season inconsistency made him the hardest goalie to place — and frankly, we were expecting pushback. We didn’t get much. ”I don’t know what to make of him,” one exec said. Another: ”He had a good Cup run, but …” A coach said he’d take him above Linus Ullmark but not Jeremy Swayman.

Ultimately, his age (35) and uneven track record (three of five seasons with a below-average save percentage) put him here.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Once again, Brodin makes the list despite carrying a negative Offensive Rating. The only player who can say the same: Chris Tanev. That’s solid company and a testament to how impactful Brodin is in his own end. Not many defensemen in the league can deliver at that level. Just don’t expect much offensive utility — he’s coming off a 27-point season, the third-best mark of his career.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

In the wake of Carlson’s injury-derailed 2022-23, we decided to wait and see whether he, at 34, could once again be a better-than-average No. 1 defenseman. He didn’t quite make it back — but he hasn’t declined a ton, either. Offensive impact is his calling card, and he’s holding up his end of the bargain.

”He’s still pretty good and he’s always going to be able to shoot the puck,” a scout said. ”He’s fine (in 5A).”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Year after year, Ehlers tends to be one of the most effective scorers in Winnipeg. He’s a strong play-driver who thrives in transition. His usage just hasn’t matched the hype, and neither has his postseason play.

“The playoff stuff scares the s— out of me. It’s hard to believe he’s got four goals in 37 playoff games. That’s hard to fathom. And that’s with two power-play goals,” one exec said.

“Sometimes you can’t fight that small sample fight once you’re that deep into it.”

Maybe that finally changes in a contract year. But until then, Ehlers has slipped down to Tier 5.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 5 — Support

WPG

After several years of fierce debate, Jones has found his level.

He’s not the replaceable player the numbers crowd made him out to be. He’s not the franchise defender the old school perceived him to be. The middle ground is usually the answer.

Jones finds himself on the fringes of top defenseman territory: an elite No. 2 option, but probably not ideal as a playoff team’s go-to guy. We’ll see how he fares now that the Blackhawks are on the rise.

”If I were doing my own list I might have him a little higher, but he’s in a reasonable place,” one exec said.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

A 100-point pace in 2021-22? Too high. A 56-point season in 2022-23? Too low.

A 75-point season last year, though? That feels right with Kadri solidifying himself as a low-end top line center.

Kadri will be 34 in October so this uptick in production may not last much longer — especially on a barren team. The late bloomer deserves plenty of credit, though, for finding a career-high level at 31 and proving it was no fluke at 33.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Kreider is still one of the Rangers’ most reliable all-situation players at both ends of the ice. At his best, he can drive to the net to capitalize on scoring chances with one exec wondering if he could be as good as Hyman in the same situation.

Even with his 39-goal season in mind, Kreider saw a dip in his play-driving impacts last season which knocks him down to Tier 5.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 5 — Support

NYR

After last season, Kyrou has a case for Tier 4 going forward. He just has to do it again.

“The dynamism is the separator. He can make something out of nothing,” one coach said.

His production may have dipped slightly, but that was worth it to see him drive play in a lead role. With Kyrou on the ice, the Blues won difficult minutes on a mediocre team. That’s a huge step up from where his game was in 2022-23.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 5 — Support

STL

Heavy defensive usage weighed on Lindholm heavily last season. He’s still a defensive rockstar and an incredible puck-mover, but the drop in offense moves him away from Toews and closer to Brodin territory.

“There is a Tier 3 defender in there if he was used like Toews. Right now I would have him in 4C ahead of most of that sub-tier,” said one analyst.

Another executive isn’t as optimistic about such a climb.

“Even if he plays well he’s probably still in Tier 4 — I don’t think he gets to Tier 3.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

The defense is a little suspect, but Nelson’s offense and goal scoring is pivotal for a team that could always use more of it. The insiders felt Nelson’s play-driving and production were enough to jump from his initial 5C ranking up to 5A. He’s underrated.

“He’s not that far off of Horvat and Tavares. He would probably venture somewhere into that range for me, that 4C/5A discussion,” an executive said.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Nugent-Hopkins landed in Tier 4 in the first iteration of this year’s Tiers, but some of the insiders felt he should slide lower.

There’s no questioning his value or utility in Edmonton. Nugent-Hopkins was a key part of an elite top line, strong on both ends of the ice and reliable in all situations. But he isn’t the driver of the Oilers’ success and saw his scoring take a huge hit when he couldn’t replicate his ridiculous power play success from 2022-23.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 5 — Support

EDM

It was fair to wonder whether O’Reilly’s time in the Tiers was over; he was coming off an unproductive end in St. Louis and a stint as a matchup center in Toronto. With Nashville, though, he snapped back into first-line center mode, producing enough offense (69 points) to regain his spot. A few panelists felt 5A was low.

”He keeps doing all the hard work for his teams the last few years,” an analyst said.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Power didn’t leap forward in Year 2, but saw some progressive improvements. The defensive lapses weren’t as glaring, and his puck-moving continued to be a strength.

It was a disappointing season across the board in Buffalo, but with a somewhat new-look coaching staff, the Sabres are expected to find those offensive heights that made them special in 2022-23. Power is going to be a part of it. How big a part dictates where he falls next season.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Away from the Lightning, and out of Hedman’s shadow, can Sergachev be a number one?

One coach sees the potential in Sergachev’s athleticism, but others have doubts.

“I would take Brodin or Lindholm over Sergachev for sure. Probably take Montour. Sergachev — I’m not sure he’s got to where people thought he would be,” one executive said.

Sergachev found his footing in meaningful minutes in 2022-23, but his game fell off last year before he was injured. That only adds uncertainty to how he will look in Utah, and pushes him down to 5A.

“He’s going to have his warts. He’s a talented player. We’ll see where the skating is at when he comes back. But he loses his composure and chases plays at times,” another executive added. “He’s not a No. 1, but if they get to build the way they want he’s a really good No. 2 or 3.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Stamkos is still near the top of the list of one-dimensional goal-scorers. It’s the most important skill to have. We dropped him a bit based on feedback, though; plenty of Stamkos’ value came as the power-play trigger man and while the Preds improved in that space, they failed to clone Nikita Kucherov.

That lack of playmakers caused real trepidation among the panel, and it was hard to argue. ”I’m a little worried about him,” one exec said.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 5 — Support

NSH

Terry is the lone Duck to be featured for the second straight season. He’s excelled despite the team around him as their most consistent player. The more Anaheim progresses, the more he should benefit by gaining real support around him.

“What else is he supposed to do on that team?” a coach said. “You watch him play, shift over shift, he does a lot of stuff really well on a team without a lot of help.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 5 — Support

ANA

If you put up a 40-goal season, you’re almost certainly landing on the list. Boeser’s spot is deserved. If he keeps it moving forward, it’ll be because he scores a few more at five-on-five (he had 18 there last season) and improves as a playmaker. Continuing to score on 20 percent of shots isn’t all that likely.

”He’s put up points at five-on-five. But a lot of that is because he’s playing with scorers who turn a lot of your ordinary passes into assists,” one exec said. ”I don’t know that he’s creating chances on a consistent basis.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 5 — Support

VAN

Did Caufield have the full-on breakout season some were predicting? Not quite, but his job is to score goals, and he still managed to pot 28 of them despite shooting an uncharacteristically low 8.9 percent. He generated a phenomenal amount of shots, too — seventh-most in the NHL — which bodes well for the Canadiens. He is, however, still listed at 5-8.

”He’s better,” a scout said. ”If he’s not scoring, he’s still probably in trouble.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 5 — Support

MTL

Year 1 in Detroit proved DeBrincat is still a streaky goal scorer whose success is heavily influenced by the players around him. That’s why he’s further away from his Tier 3 rating of years past. But he also showed he is a fit with the Red Wings, especially with Dylan Larkin, which bodes well for the future.

“DeBrincat’s value lives and dies by his linemates,” an analyst said. “If Raymond can take another step, he should be able to keep to being a premier complementary goal scorer.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 5 — Support

DET

Not many players fell farther based on feedback than Ekblad, who saw his production dip considerably once he returned from offseason shoulder surgery.

He was a key contributor down the stretch for Florida, but our panel is concerned his days as a two-way, top-pair staple are over. Two years ago, he was a Tier 2 player, and he’s still just 28 years old. ”I don’t know if he’s much better than the guys off the list, to be honest,” one exec said. We didn’t go that far; there are plenty of other one-dimensional defensemen in Tier 5.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Finding the right place for Kempe isn’t easy. There’s some nuance between 5A and 5B.

Those in 5A can either score a bit more (Kyrou), have more substance beyond points (Kreider) or perform without much help (Terry). Kempe is comparatively weaker in all three instances, but does have a stronger recent track record than some of his 5B contemporaries.

Either way, none of the Tier 5 wingers should be mistaken for feature players — Kempe included.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 5 — Support

LAK

Letang, at 37, still seems capable of playing against tough competition, but five-on-five point production has always been a big part of his game. Last season, with Erik Karlsson in the mix, he put up 1.51 points per 60, his worst since 2013-14.

”When you get the prime-time minutes taken away from you, it’s tough,” a scout said. ”That’s what drives a lot of people’s confidence. It might’ve drove it the other way last year.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Has Malkin lost a step or three? Absolutely. Does he still produce like a high-end second-line center? Also absolutely. There’s no shame in failing to follow the Crosby aging curve. If anything, Malkin’s sustained level of play gets overshadowed by his teammate’s. At 37, he put up 2.18 points per 60 at five-on-five — same as Tim Stützle, who’s 15 years younger and $2.25 million more expensive. Pittsburgh is still lucky to have him, and nobody thought he was too high.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

From original misfit to Conn Smythe winner, the Vegas chapter is over for Marchessault. And that’s one reason why he’s moved down to 5B this year.

Marchessault was one of the Golden Knights’ most reliable contributors this past season, and absolutely cooked with Eichel. While he doesn’t need a center to carry him, he won’t have that same quality of teammate boost down the middle in Nashville which likely hurts his production.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 5 — Support

NSH

The big difference between McCann’s 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons? He stopped shooting almost 22 percent at five-on-five. To his credit, shooting percentages regressed across the board in Seattle last year, and he still finished as the Kraken’s scoring leader without hitting the 30-goal mark. What hurts him and sends him down to 5B is that his five-on-five impacts also suffered a bit relative to his teammates.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 5 — Support

SEA

McDonagh’s defensive reliability shined in Nashville last year. The veteran played a pivotal role in the Predators’ turnaround and into Round 1 with Josi. That earned him a spot in the expanded top 150 and a return to the Lightning.

”He’s good, he’s experienced, he’s ultra-competitive and he skates well enough. He just doesn’t drive a lot of offense anymore,” a scout said.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Montour’s placement was less divisive than we thought. The consensus is while his 73-point season is a likely outlier and his contract in Seattle may not age well, he’s improved enough overall — and added enough substance to his athleticism — to make his spot on the list relatively secure.

”He’s become a very capable player who’ll make adjustments and isn’t gonna get caught making mistakes,” one coach said. ”I think he’s a mature player now.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

For years, Rust just missed making our final list. Expanding it by 50 means he earned a spot with relative ease. He’s the definition of a solid complementary piece: a player who adds brains, speed and finishing ability (five straight 20-plus-goal seasons) to the mix, even if his Hall of Fame-bound linemate drives the bus.

”(Rust) does the grunt work. He grinds it out,” one scout said. ”But Sidney Crosby is awful good, man.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 5 — Support

PIT

Scheifele’s decline continues. His placement here is indicative of the persistent questions regarding whether he’s still a ‘true’ top line center. With 30 ahead of him, Scheifele’s on the cusp.

Scheifele can still score at a strong rate with an Offensive Rating in line with centers in Tier 4. But his defensive game fell to a career worst last season. Among forwards, only Ovechkin and Bedard have a worse Defensive Rating.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tuch, as was the case with several teammates, couldn’t quite build on his 2022-23 breakout. The season wasn’t a loss; he further established himself as a solid offensive force in the middle six. That counts for something, as does his size-speed combo. He was a little less effective in terms of shot and chance generation, though, and saw his goal total dip from 36 to 22. That’s the difference between Tier 4 and Tier 5.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 5 — Support

BUF

Despite a bit of a productivity dip in 2023-24 owing mainly to Calgary’s power-play issues, Andersson has settled in as a fringe first-pair defenseman who’s capable of playing big minutes in different situations. He’s now put up consecutive seasons with more than 1.00 points per 60 at five-on-five and continues to do solid work in transition. Andersson’s profile and contract (two more seasons at $4.55 million AAV) also would make him an interesting trade candidate for a better team.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

We’re exercising some caution with Beniers, who, as one analyst said, ”stalled a bit” in his second full NHL season. He’s still just 21 with plenty of potential, but it’s increasingly fair to wonder whether he has the offensive ceiling necessary to qualify as a true star, let alone a franchise player. A shooting percentage dip is one thing; going from 57 points to 37 with across-the-board declines in offensive impact is another.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

From 2020 to 2022, Benn averaged a 49-point pace. That warranted skepticism about his sudden burst back to point-per-game status in 2022-23 — a late-career renaissance that was hard to believe.

After scoring 60 points last season and driving play to a positive effect, it’s tough to keep Benn off the list this time around.

“He’s a big beast that even if he’s not (scoring) the way he once did, he’s still a factor. A big factor,” one coach said.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 5 — Support

DAL

Byfield has finally arrived. After scoring 55 points last season, we’re expecting him to take another leap this season.

“I really like him, I think he’s really smart,” one coach said.

Production like that coupled with a blossoming two-way game would normally warrant higher standing on this list, but those polled want to see him actually do it first. That’s a matter of “when,” not “if” for a player of Byfield’s pedigree.

Byfield has a lot of potential to shoot up this list in the future. The big question for this year, though, is how he handles a full-time transition to center.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Down in 5C, let’s be realistic about Chabot. His value has tanked and Sanderson has surpassed him as the number one in Ottawa. He only narrowly made the cut for this year’s Tiers because of his pedigree and the Senators’ projected progression.

”He’s a minute-cruncher and can really skate but I don’t know. You’ve never seen him on a good team and he’s always gambling on the wrong side of things,” a scout said.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

After sending our first draft out to insiders, one spot remained. Cozens is 2024’s Last Man In.

Like many Sabres, Cozens was extremely disappointing last year. While he continued to excel at getting pucks out and bringing them up ice, Cozens struggled immensely at actually creating anything in the offensive zone. His five-on-five point rate dropped considerably as a result.

Cozens enters the season with a projected Net Rating of plus-four, the lowest of any center on this list. Based on his age and play at the World Championships though, there is hope for a bounce back.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

It’ll be interesting to see how Hertl performs in his first full season with the Golden Knights. His effectiveness dipped a bit in his final two seasons with the Sharks, and the hype of the trade that landed him in Vegas outpaced his actual performance, brief as it might’ve been. Still, he’s a well-rounded offensive player who seems eminently capable of crushing second-line minutes — and with this team, that’s his job.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

While Quinn Hughes deserves the lion’s share of the credit, Hronek is no scrub. He’s good in his own right with his projected Net Rating being right in line with where he was to start last season. It’s not just a Hughes byproduct.

The pair’s chemistry was real with Hronek serving as the perfect complement to a superstar on the rise. He turned out to be exactly what the Canucks needed in a No. 2 defenseman.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Thanks to a 77-point pace comeback campaign, Kane is back in the top 150 after a one-year hiatus — though at a much lower standing.

Kane’s days as an All-Star are likely over, but he’s still incredibly dynamic with the puck. It didn’t hurt that he posted his best-ever defensive numbers last year, a byproduct of his reduced role in Detroit.

In the right environment, there’s still some high-end juice to squeeze here.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 5 — Support

DET

Shifting to the right wing opened up a top-six opportunity with Panarin, and Lafrenière ran with it. He showed his ability to generate dangerous passes and scoring chances — now he has to build on it.

“He’s established himself as a 50-, 60-point winger, and that’s nothing to laugh at. I feel confident that you know what that guy is gonna bring. Maybe not what you expect from a No. 1 pick,” a coach said. “I think he finally has confidence in himself.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 5 — Support

NYR

Lehkonen isn’t a game-breaker or even a play-driver in Colorado. He plays a supporting role and benefits from sharing big minutes with elite talent like MacKinnon. But his two-way play has complemented the Avalanche and rounded out their top-six.

“I thought Lehkonen was an interesting inclusion. Not in a bad way, but more of a tip of the cap,” an executive said. “He’s earned his spot.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 5 — Support

COL

Lindholm struggled to produce anything of substance last season and got caved in at even strength. The details in his game that made him a Selke finalist in 2022 vanished. On those merits, he was far from a top 150 player.

In Boston he has the opportunity to flip that script and bounce back.

Lindholm isn’t a driver, but at his best he can be a strong support piece on a top line. There are few cushier gigs than centering Pastrnak which should lighten Lindholm’s load and maybe get his game back on track.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Miller started this year’s Player Tiers just outside of the top 150, but some of the insiders pushed for him to make the cut.

“The only (defenseman) who’s off that I would fight to have on,” one coach said.

He may not be an overwhelming threat yet, but he has the raw talent to become one between his acceleration, skating stride and reach. He will only solidify his placement here with more consistency in matchup minutes.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Figuring out Ovechkin’s placement is a yearly challenge. This time, it was tough to find someone in the game who thought he belonged on the list at all. We thought his season-ending binge (23 goals in 36 games) might’ve been enough to put some folks more squarely back in his corner, but … nope. For him (and the Caps), it’s a two-part problem. 1) He’s either disinterested or unable to do much beyond chasing the goal record, and 2) his ability to shoot the puck frequently and effectively took a serious tumble. We included him out of respect and the possibility he can put together one final push as an elite scorer.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 5 — Support

WSH

Pesce’s game may not be flashy or sexy. But his shutdown ability and elite blue line defense can really strengthen a team’s back end. That’s exactly what the Devils are counting on this year.

While he projects to be a strong fit in New Jersey, there are some questions regarding last year’s downtick and how he’ll fare away from Carolina’s chip-and-chase system. Can he be reliably depended on to move the puck as needed with the Devils?

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

If you just discovered who Roy is this summer when he signed a seven-year deal worth nearly $35 million, we don’t blame you. The defensive stalwart has flown under the radar in Los Angeles over the last few years, but has shown a consistent knack for scoring chance suppression in a top four role.

Roy is projected to deliver a plus-four Defensive Rating this season which ranks 10th among defenders.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Over the last two seasons Skinner is eighth in GSAx — ahead of Vasilevskiy, Demko, Oettinger, Markstrom, and Bobrovsky.

Few would pick Skinner over those guys, but his body of work is stronger than he gets credit for. Skinner has been shaky at times in the playoffs, though he did prove his mettle when it mattered most last spring posting a .928 save percentage in elimination games.

Another strong season — and deep playoff run — would certainly help improve his standing. He may not look the part at times, but he’s not far off the top 10.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

There isn’t one standout element for Skjei. He makes his Player Tiers debut thanks to his all-around growth and ability to absorb tough minutes.

“In the latter part of his career, he’s become such an effective big guy. He can do it all,” an executive said.

The real question is whether Skjei was a product of Carolina’s system, or whether that progression can translate elsewhere. That’s what Nashville bet on in free agency.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

We’re not saying there was major pushback to Slafkovsky’s inclusion, but analysts, execs and scouts wondered whether he’d earned a spot on merit, rather than potential. He took a huge step forward last season — not just due to those 20 goals, either. His game featured more scoring chances and more effective forechecking, and his size and shot remain undeniable.

There’s still work to do for the first pick in 2022, though, and it starts with proving he and Nick Suzuki are equal partners. ”He’s just not the one driving the line yet,” an analyst said.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 5 — Support

MTL

After back-to-back seasons around 65 points, Strome deserves some respect, maybe even more than we’re giving him here. He’s a sneaky good play-driver whose projected Net Rating ranks 28th among centers.

Having to do all the hard work on his line makes his on-ice impact all the more impressive, though one scout questioned his defensive chops.

“He plays with Ovi which is like dragging an old stubborn dog on a walk for 20 minutes a night,” an analyst said.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

“The defensemen that doesn’t get points, but has the ability to make plays — that player separates teams in terms of their ability to do stuff at five-on-five,” one coach said. That’s Tanev in a nutshell, the perfect shutdown No. 2 defenseman who does all the little things right with or without the puck. He showed as much in the playoffs for Dallas, winning matchups against Eichel and MacKinnon. He’s exactly what the Leafs have been missing.

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tippett started just outside the top 150, then earned a spot with authority. He’s scored 55 goals across the last two seasons, shoots at an elite rate, sets up more than his fair share and is one of the best skaters in the league.

”Hoo, he’s a hell of a player,” a scout said. ”He can fly. He separates so quick that it’s not even funny. Put him with a good center, look out.”

Projected stats (2024 – 25)

Tier 5 — Support

PHI

(Top photos of Quinn Hughes, Connor McDavid and Igor Shesterkin: Jeff Vinnick, Sam Hodde, Josh Lavallee / NHLI via Getty Images)

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NHL Player Tiers 2024-25: Connor McDavid levels up again, goalies join the discussion

NHL Player Tiers 2024-25: Connor McDavid levels up again, goalies join the discussion

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