Outlook for Feb. 3-7, 2025
Earnings season ramps up another notch next week to start February, forcing investors to wade through a barrage of quarterly results amid ongoing policy uncertainty that promises upheaval for an already choppy stock market. The January jobs report is also due out Friday. Next week will be the busiest stretch for fourth-quarter earnings. More than 120 S & P 500 companies are scheduled to report, including mega-cap companies Alphabet and Amazon , as well as a swath of consumer-facing behemoths, from PepsiCo to Walt Disney to Mondelez . Thus far, it’s been a good season. More than 77% of the 179 S & P 500 companies that have already reported have beaten expectations, according to FactSet data. What’s more, an anticipated blended growth rate of 13% by the time fourth quarter earnings wrap up has reassured investors that earnings growth can justify the market’s steep valuations after the past two years’ runup. Nevertheless, high expectations around earnings — when investors are already monitoring White House updates on tariff duties, awaiting confirmations to key Cabinet positions and deciphering the future of artificial intelligence after the debut of DeepSeek — means corporate outlooks are gaining an even greater amount of attention as a means to identify the market’s winners and losers. “What it really shifts to is one-off company events, and what companies say [about their future business], will drive the narrative next week,” said Brian Leonard, portfolio manager at Keeley Teton Advisors. .SPX 5D mountain S & P 500, over five days Stocks are wrapping up a volatile week. By late Friday, the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were set to close out the week with losses, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was trading roughly 1% higher. On a monthly basis, however, the major averages were on track to close out the month with gains, a bullish sign for 2025 . The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up by more than 5%, the S & P 500 was ahead almost 3% and the Nasdaq Composite had increased abouty 1.5%. Policy uncertainty, jobs For investors, much of the news next week will come from what company executives say on conference calls, responding in real time to any changes in policy out of Washington. Late in the day Thursday, President Donald Trump confirmed he would impose 25% blanket tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada — the two biggest trading partners of the United States — starting as soon as Saturday. He has yet to disclose whether the levies would include oil imports from those two countries. Trump has touted tariffs as a better deal for American companies, but many economists worry that the effects will be inflationary, depress business activity and dampen consumer spending in reaction to pricing pressures. Higher tariffs will also blow a hole in corporate planning models and heighten uncertainty. Some beneficiaries of the change are more obvious: Small-cap companies, typically domiciled in the U.S., are more insulated from increases in trade levies than large-cap multinational corporations that have sizable overseas sales and operations. “What you might see is that there’s so many unknowns through tariffs, FX, just kind of international relations and then some domestic policy,” Keeley Teton Advisors’ Leonard said. “You might see management teams err on the side of caution, especially after two strong years in the market, just to set expectations in a reasonable footing, considering that there’s a bunch of unknowns in 2025.” To take one example, on Friday Colgate-Palmolive fell 4% after the soap-and-toothpaste maker forecast weak 2025 sales due to the negative impact of foreign exchange rates, with CFO Stanley Sutula saying on a conference call that the company is “planning for multiple scenarios.” “It’s not just the tariff that may be on Mexico or Canada or China, it’s the impact of retaliatory tariffs would also come into play on those supply chains. So we’re looking at very tactical short-term, mid-term and long-term, if necessary, actions,” Sutula said. “But until we get more clarity, we have not included anything in our guidance.” On the other hand, Tractor Supply CEO Harry Lawton said on his earnings call that the power tool and fencing retailer is “confident in our ability to navigate” tariffs in spite of the uncertainty around the new presidential administration. Measuring the macro economy, the January nonfarm payrolls report is due out next Friday. Economists polled by FactSet expect the economy to have added 165,000 jobs last month, down from 223,000 new hires the prior month. The unemployment rate is forecast to have remained unchanged at 4.1%. No such thing as a safe stock The AI leaders that dominated the market the past two years will continue to be scrutinized next week, with Magnificent Seven earnings coming from Google-parent Alphabet and Amazon . How investors react to those will have more to do with how they may be insulated from rising AI competition after news of a cheaper model from Chinese startup DeepSeek upended the idea that the current market leaders are untouchable. In spite of the tech rout this week — the PHLX Semiconductor Index slumped nearly 7% — investors remain wary that the full implications of DeepSeek have yet to play out in stock prices. Nvidia , in particular, has failed to attract institutional buyers — even tumbling more than 12% this week — though small investors have swooped in. Investors in Nvidia and tech stocks such as Broadcom “have really got to pay attention,” said Kim Forrest, investment chief at Bokeh Capital Partners. “And if you have profits, maybe it’s time to take some profits, because things are changing in ways that we can’t comprehend yet.” “It’s better than having a loss on it by holding it too long,” Forrest continued. “Things are changing, and your idea that this is a safe stock is never a good assumption. Bad things happen to good companies all the time.” Still, on Friday, Nasdaq ticked higher — promising possible signs of revival heading into the weekend. As they did this week, earnings have the potential to move the S & P 500’s dominant stocks as well as the broader market. Apple emerged mostly unscathed from its earnings report this week, up about 6% partly due to the iPhone maker spending less than competitors on AI. Meta Platforms also came out strong from its earnings report. On the other hand, Microsoft is down more than 6% this week after issuing weak current-quarter guidance, even as it posted results that topped expectations. Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday Feb. 3 9:45 a.m. S & P PMI Manufacturing final (January) 10 a.m. Construction Spending (December) 10 a.m. ISM Manufacturing (January) Earnings: Tyson Foods , Palantir Technologies , NXP Semiconductors NV , Clorox Tuesday Feb. 4 10 a.m. Durable Orders (December) 10 a.m. Factory Orders (December) 10 a.m. JOLTS Job Openings (December) Earnings: Apollo Global Management , KKR & Co ., PayPal , PepsiCo , Merck & Co. , Regeneron Pharmaceuticals , Marathon Petroleum , The Estee Lauder Companies , Pfizer , Advanced Micro Devices , Alphabet , Match Group , Prudential Financial , Simon Property Group , Electronic Arts , Enphase Energy , Mondelez International , Chipotle Mexican Grill Wednesday Feb. 5 8:30 a.m. Trade Balance (December) 9:45 a.m. PMI Composite final (January) 9:45 a.m. S & P PMI Services final (January) 10 a.m. ISM Services PMI (January) Earnings: The Walt Disney Co ., Emerson Electric , Stanley Black & Decker , Boston Scientific , Uber Technologies , Yum! Brands , T. Rowe Price Group , MetLife , Align Technology , Qualcomm , Ford Motor , Allstate , O’Reilly Automotive Thursday Feb. 6 8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (01/25) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (02/01) 8:30 a.m. Unit Labor Costs preliminary (Q4) 8:30 a.m. Productivity preliminary (Q4) Earnings: Hilton Worldwide , Air Products & Chemicals , Honeywell International , Eli Lilly & Co. , Tapestry , ConocoPhillips , Fastenal , Hershey , Ralph Lauren , Microchip Technology , Take-Two Interactive Software , Amazon.com , Expedia Group , Monolithic Power Systems , Fortinet Friday Feb. 7 8:30 a.m. Hourly Earnings preliminary (January) 8:30 a.m. Average Workweek preliminary (January) 8:30 a.m. Manufacturing Payrolls (January) 8:30 a.m. Nonfarm Payrolls (January) 10 a.m. Michigan Sentiment (February) 10 a.m. Wholesale Inventories (December) 3 p.m. Consumer Credit (December)
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